Dragon Zone 见龙在天

大摩降体育用品股前景至「与大市同步」看淡品牌看好分销

2011-08-03T10:12:00.003+08:00

《大行报告》大摩降体育用品股前景至「与大市同步」看淡品牌看好分销
2011-07-20

摩根士丹利认为，中国体育用品行业将面临调整，下调行业前景由「吸引」至「与大市同步」。认为内地运动服装的动力将由品牌转至分销商，预期李宁<02331.HK>及中国动向<03818.HK>未来数年仓存回购将会增加，料额外分别需要14.48亿元人民币及6.13亿元人民币作回购。该行冀望两间公司有冲击性的策略，以减少分销渠道的存货。市场普遍看淡内地运动服装近期的基本面，该行同意该看法，认为李宁及中国动向调整库存，将会令其他二线运动品牌的出售增长减慢。该行指，李宁及中国动向的过量存货，虽然对二线运动品牌有负面影响，惟料影响可控。
该行指出，Nike及Adidas在内地的市占率提高，料分销商如百丽<01880.HK>及宝胜<03813.HK>将可受惠，同时可抢占额外的市占率。
该股首选百丽，目标价由16.2元升至19.3元，维持「增持」评级。
其後推荐宝胜，目标价由1.35元调高至1.7元，维持「增持」评级。
安踏<02020.HK>目标价由15.5元降至13.8元，维持「增持」评级。
李宁目标价由16.8元大削至7.2元，评级由「与大市同步」降至「减持」。
中国动向目标价由3.8元大削至1.8元，评级由「增持」降至「与大市同步」。

2010-11-24T14:37:00.000+08:00

Hawthorn Fruits. So Juicy!!

2010-11-23T18:45:00.001+08:00

山楂之恋

2010-11-23T18:37:00.000+08:00

Shan Cha

2010-11-23T15:42:00.003+08:00

营养功效
　　山楂片含多种维生素、山楂酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸、苹果酸等，还含有黄酮类、内酯、糖类、蛋白质、脂肪和钙、磷、铁等矿物质，所含的解脂酶能促进脂肪类食物的消化。促进胃液分泌和增加胃内酶素等功能。中医认为，山楂具有消积化滞、收敛止痢、活血化淤等功效。主治饮食积滞、胸膈痞满、疝气血淤闭经等症。山楂中含有山萜类及黄酮类等药物成分，具有显著的扩张血管及降压作用，有增强心肌、抗心律不齐、调节血脂及胆固醇含量的功能。
适应范围
　　一般人皆可食用。儿童、老年人、消化不良尤其适合食用。伤风感冒、消化不良、食欲不振、儿童软骨缺钙症、儿童缺铁性贫血者可多食山楂片。

山楂之恋

2010-11-23T15:19:00.002+08:00

随着《山楂树之恋》的上映，山楂成为近段时间最有人气的水果之一。除了常见的消积化、收敛止痢、活血化淤，你知道山楂对女性有哪些特殊功效吗？怎样吃才能让这些功效发挥作用？
1、山楂可以治疗痛经及月经不调。
由于很多痛经是由于血瘀引起的，而山楂具有活血化瘀的作用，所以对此具有一定的疗效。
饮食方案：将山楂洗净后加入适量的水，直至将山楂煮烂，加入红糖熬成稀糊状即可，经期前3-5日开始服用至经后3日为一个疗程。

2、山楂具有抗衰老的作用。
山楂的抗衰老作用居水果之首，多喝些山楂柠檬水，是最简单的美容方法了。
山楂柠檬水的做法：将柠檬片或者柠檬干与山楂一同泡入水中饮用，可以反复冲泡，需坚持饮用。

3、具有降脂减肥的作用。
山楂具有很强的助消化功能，每日坚持饮用山楂茶，还可以达到降血脂的功效。
山楂茶的做法：将山楂洗净后切开，之后根据个人口味加入冰糖，一起用沸水泡置3-5分钟就可以饮用了。

【药理作用】用于降压，调节血脂，消积食、健脾胃，行气散淤、驱绦虫；可用于肉食积滞、胃脘涨满、泻痢腹痛、瘀血经闭、产后瘀阻、高血压症；改善心肌收缩，扩张冠状血管血液流量。

Hawthorn Fruit

2010-11-23T15:04:00.004+08:00

山楂片含多种维生素、山楂酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸、苹果酸等，还含有黄酮类、内酯、糖类、蛋白质、脂肪和钙、磷、铁等矿物质，所含的解脂酶能促进脂肪类食物的消化。促进胃液分泌和增加胃内酶素等功能。中医认为，山楂具有消积化滞、收敛止痢、活血化淤等功效。主治饮食积滞、胸膈痞满、疝气血淤闭经等症。山楂中含有山萜类及黄酮类等药物成分，具有显著的扩张血管及降压作用，有增强心肌、抗心律不齐、调节血脂及胆固醇含量的功能。

【性味与归经】酸、甘、微温。归脾、胃、肝经。
【功能与主治】消食健胃，行气散瘀。用于肉食积滞，胃脘胀满，泻痢腹痛，瘀血经闭，产后瘀阻，心腹刺痛，疝气疼痛；高脂血症。焦山楂消食导滞作用增强。用于肉食积滞，泻痢不爽。

JPM Downgrades Shineway To Underweight Vs Neutral

2010-11-11T19:06:00.001+08:00

JPMorgan downgrades Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) to Underweight vs Neutral after 3Q10 results show slowing growth. House expects more margin pressure as more drugs it sold added to essential drug list program starting 2011; drugs on list have to have their margins lowered. House also cuts target price to HK$20.00 vs HK$21.00 after lowering FY10-FY11 sales by 9.6%-15.8% on weak 3Q10 sales. "In our view, the margin pressure for Shineway is greater than that of its peers due to its portfolio of cheaper products and its above-average margins," says JPM. Adds, prefers United Laboratories (3933.HK) because of its exciting new product portfolio (which includes diabetic insulin) and lower risk of any margin compression that comes from new government initiatives. Shineway Pharmaceutical last down 1.2% at HK$25.55

2010-11-11T09:47:00.003+08:00

MARKET OUTLOOK
The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing is expected to bring U.S. dollar under pressure over the next six months and increase risks of global inflation and asset bubbles in the long run. China has recently raised its key
interest rate for the first time since 2007 in order to combat inflation and rising
property prices. This move reflected a turning point of China’s monetary policy
and change in government’s top priority from “growth” to “inflation”. We expect to see more rate hikes in 2011 but the impact on stock market will be similar to the previous cycle in our view. During the period from April 2006 to October 2007, China lifted 1-year lending rate from 5.58% to 7.29% while the Shanghai SE Composite Index surged from approximately 1,400 to 6,000 and the Hang Seng Index (“HSI”) climbed from approximately 17,000 to 32,000. The possibility of a bull cycle for China and Hong Kong stock markets over the next 6 to 12 months is also supported by fundamental valuation. According to market estimates, the HSI(at 24,144)is now trading at 2010 PER of 15.3x which is close to the historical averages of 15.9x, 15.4x and 14.8x over the past 10, 20 and 30 years respectively.Obviously, current valuation of the HSI is not cheap but certainly not at a risky level. We maintain our year-end target for the HSI at 24,000-25,000 and believe the index would reach 28,000 in 2011. Any pull back should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Chinese banking sector is our top favourite among H shares for the rest of the year because (i) third-quarter earnings of banks were largely above market expectations, (ii) further rate hikes will improve net interest margin resulting in earnings upgrade, (iii) current valuation of banks, trading at 2011 PER of 8.5x-13.0x or 10.1x on average, is still cheap by historical standard or compared with HSCEI.
Our top picks remains ICBC (1398) and CCB (939). On the other hand, we continue to take a cautious view on Chinese property stocks given unfavourable
government policies. However, those with robust property sales revenue and strong executive capability should deserve a positive re-rating such as Evergrande (3333). Our price target for Evergrande is $4.20.
Investors who prefer to trade laggards may consider the following stocks. Angang Steel’s (347) share price dropped 2% in October since the company recorded a loss in the third quarter. However, we expect earnings to make a sharp rebound in the fourth quarter amid a rise in steel price. Our price target for Angang Steel is $14.80.
SMIC (981), the largest semiconductor foundry in Mainland China, reported
better-than-expected third quarter earnings. We believe the counter deserves a positive re-rating with a price target of $0.75 based on P/B of 1.25x. New World Development (17), the smallest blue chip property company, is currently trading at a discount of 42% to NAV. Further increase in Hong Kong’s property prices will eventually trigger a re-rating of property stock with deep discount to NAV in our view. Our price target for New World Development is $19.60.

四环医药控股集团有限公司股票编号： 00460

2010-11-05T13:13:00.001+08:00

SIHUAN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDINGS GROUP LTD. 集团网址： http://www.sihuanpharm.com

　业务状况

　集团简介：
　－　集团主要供应１４种药物，用於治疗心脑血管及中枢神经系统。其中「克林澳」、「安捷利」为唯一经国家药监局批准含特定活性成分的药物品牌，共占集团２００９年度及２０１０年６月止半年度总收入５７・３％及５７・７％。另亦销售仿制药及抗敏感药。
　－　於２０１０年１０月，集团拥有２支共３３３人的研发团队，成功开发１３种产品，并取得１２种产品的全国分销权。集团在中国持有９９项专利，另有２３３项专利正在申请当中，在国外有４项。大部分产品已列入国家及省级医保药品目录及国家基本药物目录，并受政府的零售价格上限管制。集团正开发逾３０种产品，包括
　　　四种已完成或正处於临床试验阶段，预期四年内推出，其中１０种为创新药，其馀为仿制药。
　－　至２０１０年１０月止，集团分销网络覆盖３１个省市及自治区近一万家医院，占所有三级医院７０％、二级医院５５％，以及５４００家一级及其他医院与医疗机构。
　－　集团产品的主要原材料为活性药物成分，最大供应商为Ｈａｒｂｉｎ　Ｔｒｉ－Ｌｉｏｎ
　　　Ｐｈａｒｍａｃｅｕｔｉｃａｌ（主要分包制造商）及北京高博。集团与北京高博於２００９年河北省成立廊坊四环，并持５１％权益，以生产ＡＰＩ及医药中介产品等原材料。
　－　集团拥有一间克林澳ＡＰＩ生产厂、一间锅炉房及一间接待办事处（总面积为２９３２平方米）、一个扩建设施及一间口服固体药包装厂，总面积为７８２平方米（未获建设规划许可证）。集团共经营六条综合生产线, 所有生产设施均获国家药监局的ＧＭＰ认证。

　业绩表现：
　－　截至２０１０年６月３０日止半年度，集团营业额上升４６・９％至４・７３亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升１・１倍至２・５５亿元。期内业务概况如下：
　　　（一）毛利上升４９・５％至３・４６亿元，毛利率由去年同期的７１・９％上升至７３・２％；
　　　（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升５４・２％至３・９３亿元，占总营业额８３％，毛利率由去年同期的
　　　　　　８１・８％下降至８０・６％；
　　　（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升１９・３％至７９７８万元，占总营业额１６・９％，毛利率由去年同期的３４・３％上升至３７％；
　　　（四）於２０１０年６月３０日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・２亿元；流动比率为５・１倍；集团并无任何借款。
　－　２００９年度，集团营业额上升３９％至７・０９亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升３７・７％至３・２６亿元。年内业务概况如下：
　　　（一）毛利上升３７・３％至５・１７亿元，毛利率由去年的７３・８％下跌至７２・９％；
　　　（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升３９・７％至５・６１亿元，占总营业额７９・１％，毛利率由去年的
　　　　　　８４・５％下降至８１・４％；
　　　（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升３０・７％至１・４亿元，占总营业额１９・８％，毛利率由去年的３４・２％上升至４０・８％；
　　　（四）於２００９年１２月３１日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・１３亿元；流动比率为３・２倍；集团并无任何借款。

　发展概览
　－　於２０１０年１０月，集团业务发展策略概述如下：
　　　（一）继续巩固心脑血管药品业务，并扩大研发团队及重点发展注射用磺西林钠及奥卡西平片。另计划於四年内推出四种药物以补充现有产品组合；
　　　（二）拟扩展销售团队至５００人，设立更多地区办事处，拟於五年内将三级、二级、一级及其他医院的覆盖率分别提高至９０％、８０％及７０％。；
　　　（三）透过收购、合作及合营进行扩充，计划与境外药品公司成立合营公司；及
　　　（四）拟将生产设施升级至符合新的ＧＭＰ标准及有选择性地符合欧盟或美国ＦＤＡ标准来加强生产质量；集团现有两个已规划的生产设施。其中河北省廊坊主要生产活性药物成分，预期将於２０１１年上半年投
　　　　　　产。另一於北京生产冻干粉针剂及小容量注射剂，预期将於２０１２年底投产。完成后总年产能将增加１亿瓶冻干粉针剂、１０００万瓶无菌粉针剂、３亿万瓶小容量注射剂及３０吨活性药物成分。
　－　２０１０年１０月，集团发售新股上市，估计集资净额为６３・３６亿港元，拟用作以下用途：
　　　（一）约１２・６７亿港元（占２０％）用於开发及研究抗感染、新陈代谢、心血管系统、肿瘤及神经系统等目标治疗领域新产品；
　　　（二）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於收购能补充及扩展集团现有产品组合的特定产品或生产线；
　　　（三）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於建设位於廊坊及北京的两项新生产设施；
　　　（四）约１９・０１亿港元（占３０％）用於并购适当的目标公司或业务；
　　　（五）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用於加大销售及分销力度；及
　　　（六）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用作营运资金及一般公司开支，特别是用於应付集团业务模式变动所产生的现金流量需求增加。

　股本变化
　－　２０１０年１０月，以每股＄４・６，发行及配售１２・５亿股新股上市，另超额配售１・８７５亿股。

　招股书预测
　－　「预期截至２０１０年１２月３１日止年度之股东应占溢利将不少於５亿元人民币，全面摊薄每股盈利不少於人民币１０分。」

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　－

Shanghai Electric(2727.HK) L/T Winner.

2010-11-03T12:01:00.000+08:00

STOCK CALL: Citigroup raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.50 from HK$4.00 on expectation of more profits from new energy business, overseas orders. Says company's plan to sell US$8.29 billion worth of coal-fired equipment to India's Reliance ADA Group will boost orders on hand by 28%; revenue by US$500-600 million per year (6-7% its FY09 revenue). Notes hedging has been done to mitigate yuan appreciation risk. Says new energy division remains on growth drive; expects revenue of this division would surge to CNY13.8 billion in FY11 from CNY7.9 billion in FY10, underpinned by more nuclear equipment sales. Keeps stock at Buy.

Shanghai Elec Tipped L/T Winner

2010-11-03T11:57:00.000+08:00

Dongfang Electric (1072.HK) +3.5% at HK$41.90 on top of 7.4% rally yesterday, which came on analysts-beating 3Q results; intraday high of HK$41.90 marks fresh 52-week high. Daiwa raises Dongfang's 6-month target price to HK$44.40 from HK$38.50, keeps Buy call; says strong 3Q results "driven by strong gross-profit-margin expansion," revises up FY10-12 EPS forecasts by 6.4%-8.2% to incorporate 3Q earnings surprise. Still, despite positive view on stock intact, Daiwa believes peer Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) "may be a long-term winner" in nuclear business, given its strong positioning in AP1000 (a third-generation technology), while Dongfang has been focused mainly on CPR (a 2.5-generation technology). Shanghai Electric +3.8% at HK$5.42.

HK ENERGY 0987.HK

2010-11-02T10:52:00.001+08:00

Buy and keep for one year.
See you at HKD 1.50 !

SH ELECTRIC 2727.HK

2010-11-02T10:31:00.001+08:00

CLSA raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.60 vs HK$4.50 after lifting stock price multiple to 16X 2012 earnings based on likelihood of earnings upside, improved earnings visibility. Says new orders reinforce house preference for company over Dongfang Electric (1072.HK). "We expect that the valuation gap with Dongfang Electric will narrow, and it remains our top pick among the equipment suppliers." says CLSA. Adds, Shanghai Electric currently trading on 13.4X FY12 P/E vs Dongfang Electric's 20X FY12 suppliers. Keeps stock at Buy. Shares last +3.8% at HK$4.89, but off early high of HK$5.06, after announcing US$8.3 billion order with India's Reliance ADA Group

SiHuan Pharmaceutical Holdings.

2010-10-28T14:16:00.001+08:00

四环医药控股
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings

业务简介
四环医药控股是一家领先的医药公司，就市场份额而言，心脑血管药物业务居中国之首。集团拥有别具一格的销售及市场推广模式，由逾2,000名分销商组成的庞大的全国性分销网络提供支持，该网络覆盖全国31个省市及自治区近10,000家医院。
集团的研发实力雄厚，侧重於发展创新及首次进入市场的仿制药，并拥有物色、获得及开发市场领先药物的往绩记录。集团供应14种心脑血管药物组合，用作治疗多种心脑血管疾病，销量最高的为心脑血管药物克林澳、安捷利及川青，合共约占中国脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场的17.1%，脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场是最大的心脑血管药物细分市场。
集团亦与心脑血管药物一起推广及销售30种抗感染药物及其他药物的多样化组合。集团现时推广及销售的所有药物均为处方药。

CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY

2010-10-14T17:31:00.002+08:00

CHINAVTM MINING 00893 14/10/2010

Action Buy
Target Price $4.100

Reason
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY

Event: A good timing to accumulate CVTM.

CVTM's share price has corrected 33% year-to-date and is still slightly below its IPO price of $3.50 in October 2009 amid the downturn of downstream steel industry starting in 2Q10. Given the company’s high earnings visibility, low production cost and strong earnings growth, we believe the stock is undervalued. Current level provides investors a good entry opportunity, in our view.
As the second largest iron ore producer in Sichuan area and the only major listed PRC iron ore player in Hong Kong, CVTM is the a beneficiary of the 'Great Western Development Plan' and robust demand from steel mills in Sichuan. Post-earthquake reconstruction and urbanization in Sichuan have been the driving force of steel demand in the region. According to company guidance, there will be approximately 10.1mnt of new crude steel production capacity in Sichuan area by 2012, up 66% from 2009 level. This in turn will drive demand of iron ore and support iron ore price in the area as it is costly to transport iron ore from coastal areas to inland.
Company recorded a 41% and 75% yoy growth in revenue and net profit to RMB 686mn and RMB 234mn respectively in 1H10. Gross margin expanded largely from 43.1% in 1H09 to 52.4% in 1H10 thanks to 1) increase in ASP which outpaced the surge of average unit cost and 2) increase in sales volume of iron concentrates and pellets by 9% and 13% respectively.
Iron concentrates output was up 16% yoy in 1H10 to 866kt, which only accounted for around 44% of company's full year target. This was mainly due to the drought in Sichuan which has interrupted the water and power supplies earlier this year. As company has commenced iron concentrates production in two new processing facilities in 1H10, it is highly likely that company can achieve its full year target of 1.95mnt of iron concentrates.
Realized ASP of iron concentrate and pellets in 1H10 were RMB 665/t and RMB 880/t, up 29% and 21% yoy respectively and were 9% and 1% above the floor contract price they signed with their customers. Even though domestic iron ore price may face short-term pressure amid the recent steel production cut to meet provinces' energy reduction target, we believe earnings risk of CVTM remains low as it has already signed sales agreement with its major customers for 2010 with floor contract price.
Meanwhile, company has continued to expand its capacity through acquisition of two processing plants and two iron ore mining rights in the area. While the iron ore mines it acquired are still at exploration stages, the two processing plants it acquired have lifted its production capacity of iron concentrates from 1.2mnt to 2.3mnt in 1H10. With another iron concentrate production line being completed by September 2010, its iron concentrates capacity can reach 2.6mnt by year-end. It is also constructing a new pellet production line that will lift its pellet production capacity from current level of 360kt to 1,360kt by 2H11.
Assuming that CVTM will sell its products at contract floor price in 2H10 and achieving its full-year production target, we estimate that company will earn RMB 501mn (EPS RMB 0.24) in 2010. Meanwhile, assuming that 1) ASP of iron concentrates and iron pellets up 9% and 3% respectively; 2) production capacity up by 23% and 3) production cost increases by 3% in 2011, we estimate it will record a net profit of RMB 685mn (EPS RMB 0.33) in 2011, implying a EPS CAGR of 28% between 2009 and 2011.
CVTM is trading at 12.3x 2010 PER and 8.9x 2011 PER that we think is undervalued given its high earnings momentum, strong organic growth and potential acquisition pipeline.
We rate it a BUY with a 6-month target price of $4.10, implying an 11x 2011 PER. Key downside risks are production disruption due to natural disasters or dispute with its mining contractor and lower than expected steel demand in Sichuan region.

HK ENERGY 987.HK BUY TP HKD1.80

2010-07-29T00:28:00.002+08:00

Don't miss this. Buy now at HKD0.63.
Business Summary:
The Group is principally engaged in alternative energy business and software development business.

Business Review:
During 2009, HKE made several important moves to transform the Group into HKC Group’s alternative energy flagship. Fully aware of the strong support given by the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”, or “China”) government on alternative energy, in particular wind and solar power, HKE refined the business strategy and disposed of the cellulosic ethanol pilot project in May 2009. Resources and focus were redirected to wind energy project development.

The equity for the Lunaobao wind farm project was fully injected and construction was well underway. The 100.5 megawatt (“MW”) wind farm is located in Lunaobao, Hebei Province, adjacent to Danjinghe, where another promising wind farm of the Group was being developed. HKE owns 30% of the joint venture with the rest of the stake held by the wind division subsidiary of China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (collectively “CECIC”). The project comprises 67 sets of 1,500 kilowatt (“KW”) PRC domestic manufactured wind turbines and the total investment cost is around RMB950.78 million. At as 31st December 2009, all 67 foundations had been completed and a total of 24 sets wind turbine and towers had been installed. Other peripheral and logistical infrastructure, such as the central control room, staff quarter and substation were completed. Work on power transmission and connection to the grid was in progress. Remaining wind turbines installation and peripheral construction are expected to be completed for trial run in mid 2010, well ahead of schedule and under budget.

A new Executive Director and Managing Director, Dr. Bruce Yung, who has worked in the energy industry for more than 20 years, joined HKE in August 2009. His joining has strengthened the Group’s ability to source new, high return wind farms and improved HKE’s awareness to the investor community. The Group’s technical wind resources evaluation and micro-site setting capabilities were further enhanced through the signing of a framework agreement with Garrad Hassan Limited (“Garrad Hassan”), a highly reputable wind power engineering consulting firm from the United Kingdom. The firm has considerable experience in the PRC.

During the second half of 2009, the Group signed memorandum of understanding (“MOU”) with and received letter of support from several provincial governments, such as Kulun in Inner Mongolia and Kangping in Liaoning Province, to commence wind resource and feasibility studies for developing wind farms. This will help increase the size of the Group’s wind farm projects pipeline.

HKE entered into an agreement in November 2009 to acquire from its parent company, HKC, 25% of HKE (Danjinghe) Wind Power Limited, which holds 40% equity interest in the project company developing the Danjinghe wind farm, for a consideration of approximately HK$83.06 million. The consideration represented a 25% discount to the fair value of the wind farm given by an independent business appraiser and a 36% premium to the net asset value of this asset accounted for under HKC. The transaction was completed by unanimous shareholders’ approval in the extraordinary general meeting held on 30th December 2009. After the transaction, HKE holds 10% effective equity interest in the project company holding the Danjinghe wind farm project while the remaining 30% and 60% rights are held by HKC and CECIC respectively.

The Danjinghe project is located approximately 300 kilometres (“km”) north of Beijing adjacent to Lunaobao in the Hebei Province with total 200 MW wind power generating capacity. The project is part of the 1,000MW national-scale wind power project designated by National Development & Reform Commission (“NDRC”) as a showcase for China. The wind farm was developed in three phases where phase 1 consisted 54 units of 750 KW wind turbine, phase 2 consisted 100 units of 800 KW wind turbine, and phase 3 consisted 53 units of 1,500 KW wind turbines all manufactured by PRC domestic supplier.

Phase 1 construction of the Danghinghe project was completed for trial run in January 2009 and commenced commissioning in June 2009. Phase 2 and 3 construction was also completed in December 2009, ahead of schedule by 12 months. Both phases are currently waiting for trial run. The project was completed under budget, with the Phase 1 operating performance in 2009 exceeded the original forecast of 75 million kilowatt-hour (“Kwh”) by 10 million Kwh. The injection of this promising wind asset from the parent company represents a significant move for the Group to become HKC’s alternative energy flagship.

Prospects:
China’s rapid economic development following the stabilization of the world’s economy creates a strong demand for energy. Alternative energy has been seen by the Chinese government as the most promising source of energy in addition to fossil fuels. Considerable attention has been given to the alternative energy sector and favourable policies have been rolled out in the past. This situation is expected to remain the same in the foreseeable future as alternative energy was highly promoted in the PRC Twelfth Five Years Plan for 2011 to 2015. Reflecting the government’s commitment to alternative energy, a number of amendments to China’s Renewable Energy Law were proposed in the eleventh National People’s Congress (“NPC”) in PRC held on 26th December 2009. These amendments were designed to resolve the problems with grid connection for wind power projects.

On the supply side, there is an indication of abundant wind equipment suppliers. Although consolidation is expected to come shortly, prices for wind equipment have come down, and are expected to continue to decline. As a result, development costs to HKE will also decline and should result in higher return on equity.

Internally, HKE will take advantage of the current favourable business environment and proceed with developing our wind farm projects in a cautious and careful manner. Further to signing the MOU and strategic development agreement with the provincial government, the Group will engage Garrad Hassan to conduct wind resources analysis, feasibility and micro-site study for Kulun of Inner Mongolia and Kangping of Liaoning. Kulun is southeast of Inner Mongolia approximately 77 km northwest of Fuxin city in Liaoning Province. The location is capable of accommodating three 49.5 MW wind farms. Kangping is approximately 120 km north of Shenyang city in Liaoning Province with an area over 300 square km. This location can develop into a 250 MW wind farm. Both locations are close to the transmission infrastructure and areas of power demand, which will be ideal for establishing wind farm. Apart from Kulun and Kangping, the Group is also exploring other potential wind farm locations in the south-western part of PRC.

The Group will also actively seek strategic partnerships with the aim to strengthen HKE’s capital base and to enhance the Group’s competitive advantages for future growth. In addition, HKE will explore plans and their feasibilities to further inject other alternative energy assets from the HKC Group. This will complete the transformation of HKE into HKC’s alternative energy flagship. Several alternative energy assets currently belong to HKC Group that can be considered are listed below:

(a) Phase I Siziwang Qi of Inner Mongolia – a 49.5 MW wind farm. This first phase of a potential 1,000 MW project is 100% wholly owned by HKC Group. The wind farm is currently under construction. Construction work for the foundations, control room and substation was completed. All 33 wind turbine units were hoisted in 2009 ready for the final connection to the grid and trial run in early 2010.

(b) Mudanjiang and Muling of Heilongjiang – a 2 x 30 MW wind farm. HKC Group owns majority stakes of 86% and 86.68% in the two wind farms. The wind farms commenced full operations in September 2007, and are making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.

(c) Danjinghe of Hebei – a 200 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% effective equity interest in which 10% held indirectly via HKE and 30% held directly by HKC Group. The first phase, consisting of 40.5 MW, commenced commissioning in June 2009. Cost saving was achieved. First commission data indicated that the performance in 2009 was better than originally forecasted. Construction for the remaining 2 phases was completed end of 2009 ahead of original schedule by 12 months. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.

(d) Changma of Gansu – a 201 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% interest. Construction was completed end of 2009. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.

(e) Linyi of Shandong – a 25 MW waste-to-energy power plant. The plant is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns 40% interest. The plant commenced full operations in September 2007, and is making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.

AusNutria 1717.HK

2010-05-27T12:00:00.002+08:00

澳優（1717）主要業務為在內地從事生產及銷售嬰兒奶粉產品，去年收益6.24 億元（人民幣，下同），按年上升54%，純利升1.58 倍至1.82 億元，毛利升1.1 倍至3.08 億元，毛利率增加13 個百分點至49%，主要是奶粉成本下降、銷售增速加快，以及較高毛利產品比重增加所帶動。

內地的「一孩政策」，令父母更願意花錢在嬰兒身上，產品質數最為重要，只要品質穩定，往往整個幼兒期都使用同一個牌子。自2008 年內地乳品業受三聚氰胺事件影響，令消費者更注重奶粉安全，海外產品較易取得信心。集團旗下三種不同系列產品，包括A 選系列、優選系列和能力多系列，所有產品透過澳洲供應商買入原料，主攻中高檔市場；而生產基地設於湖南省長沙市，擁有3 條生產線，專門負責殺菌、過濾和混合，每年產能超過1.5 萬噸。

集團計劃陸續推出產品，包括有機產品和新配方產品，提高產品多元化，增加市場佔有率。集團透個20 個省份的批發商銷售，再銷售至中國各地的百貨店、超級市場和母嬰專賣店等的零售店，又委託一個代理商設立獨立網站，提供網上購物服務，另外亦委任香港營銷商，進一步擴大營銷網絡。

MengNiuDairy 2319.HK Rated BUY!

2010-04-28T23:31:00.000+08:00

事件:蒙牛乳业公布2009年纯利爲11.2亿元人民币。

2009年营业额按年增长8%至257亿元人民币。公司纯利11.2亿元人民币，低於市场预期，本行相信是出於员工期权计划费用的摊销。每股盈利0.68元人民币，而2008年每股亏损0.67元人民币。公司建议发放末期息每股0.14元人民币，相当於股息派发比率爲22.0%。

毛利率从2008年的19.6%飙升至2009年的26.7%。虽然2009年八月份以来原奶价格反弹，然而2009年下半年毛利率仍维持在26.6%的高位(09年上半年为26.6%)。蒙牛主要竞争对手伊利的液态奶业务毛利率2009年下半年比上半年下降1.6个百分点。

原奶价格上涨对蒙牛乳业冲击较小是由於公司60%至70%的原奶来源於长达30至50年的长期独占性合约，原奶收购价格比较稳定。

另外，公司利用高质量原奶来源提升産品组合，从而改善毛利率。管理层指出2009年12月特伦苏産品销量创新高，这也爲AC Nielsen10月底资料显示特伦苏占中国高端牛奶市场77.5%的份额所佐证。

经营费用2009年下半年飙升。2009年下半年销售及经销费用按年增长27%，而上半年按年下降15%，出於年末赞助活动较多，推升了广告开支。行政开支2009年下半年猛增65%，而上半年按年只增长15%，本行认爲是出於员工期权费用的摊销。本行调增经营费用预期，但相信2009年下半年的增速不会持续。

管理层预计中国乳品市场未来两至三年将每年增长15%至20%，蒙牛管理层将依靠推出新産品及提升市场份额，致力使其增速超越同业水平。作为行业领导者，加上中粮集团及厚朴的战略合作，本行认爲蒙牛很有可能实现这个目标。

由於预料经营费用上升，本行将2010年每股盈利预测从1.01元人民币调低至0.91元人民币。然而，本行对蒙牛未来几年的前景依然乐观，2009年至2012年3年每股盈利年复合增长率预计将达26.8%。

蒙牛乳业现价相当於25.4倍2010年市盈率，估值并不昂贵。

重申买入评级，目标价下调至28.8元，基於28倍2010年市盈率

宝钢股份：价格提升业绩增长

2010-02-22T11:40:00.001+08:00

宝钢股份（600019）：公司是国内行业价格风向标的宝钢股份是我国钢铁行业龙头企业,公司目前年产能为2400万吨，公司以精品＋规模作为未来几年的发展战略，规模的扩大主要依靠兼并重组，其目标集聚产品结构优化战略，更加使得精品比重逐步提高。公司目前稳健重点发展是其独有及领先产品,其产量占比达到了40%，其中冷轧薄板产品比例达到了35％，后期仍会增长；目前冷轧产品国内市场占有率19％，冷轧汽车板国内市场占有率50％。
　　近期宝钢2010年2月价格政策出台：热轧、冷轧、镀锌和宽厚板等主力产品全部维持1月价格不变（包括供应最为紧张的汽车用钢）。最新价格政策低于市场预期。现货市场钢价不断提升，市场本来预期宝钢的热轧和冷轧产品会提高200元/吨和300-350元/吨。宝钢此次维持价格不变，一方面无疑考虑了央行提高准备金率对钢材市场的潜在冲击（本身处于高库存状态），流动性收紧预期加强影响，此前受资金充裕推动的钢价短期内会受到一定抑制；另一方面如此整齐划一的价格政策还是折射出谈判前的强大外部压力，上月宝钢首提钢材出厂价格引发了钢企涨价潮，在铁矿石谈判的敏感时点给公司带来了较大的舆论压力。但客观上，这有助于巩固和客户的关系，并缓解舆论压力，为下次调价争取空间。其次, 冬季本是钢铁需求的淡季，虽然宝钢以高端板材为主不受淡旺季影响，但结合整个钢铁市场的淡季氛围，待开春后旺季到来再涨价的做法也在情理之中。
　　宝钢的原料成本优势不断扩大。当下钢材市场中原料价格上升推动现货钢价上涨。以最新数据计算，长协钢坯成本低于现货钢坯成本约300元/吨。谈判落定之前，强预期推动的钢价上涨可能仍会继续，从而成为宝钢下次提价的动力。
　　2010年钢铁公司产品结构特点远比产能增长幅度重要。只要政府对经济结构转型的决心不变，后续公司高端冷轧产品的高盈利能力以及原料成本和出口优势的恢复将为股价带来上升空间。2010年产量增长一方面来自产能扩大：梅钢的铁前改造在2010年将贡献50-80万吨的新增产能，未来梅钢热轧产能可能将由目前的300万吨最高扩大至500万吨；另一方面来自于产能利用率的提升，按照公司三季度的产量进行年化，公司目前已经具备了2400万吨以上的能力，综合来看，公司2010年产量有望达到10%左右的增长。
　　二级市场上, 该股前期维持震荡走势,近日有所回调,但量能也随之萎缩,显示筹码锁定良好,后市一旦获得量能的配合,有望再度上攻.而且,该股目前估值优势明显,安全边际较高.因此,建议投资者重点关注。

PIGS Problems????

2010-02-11T14:50:00.003+08:00

P for Portugal
I for Italy
G for Greece
S for Spain

Next, what is next? Can it be more serious than SUB PRIME crisis? What have we learn from Asia Crisis in year 1997-1999?

No one crisis will prolong forever and remain unsolved!
没有走不完的路，也没有吃不完的苦!

I reiterate, this is an opportunity to buy when most of the investors are staying sideline and worrying for the sky to fall!

Strategy: Accumulate during FEB and March, market should regain confident and improve thereafter. Don't miss this golden opportunity!

If you still remain coutious and worried, my advice is you should be worrying about 2012! End of the .....

Greens At Overweight; Targets HK$2.30

2010-02-09T11:36:00.001+08:00

MS Starts Greens At Overweight; Targets HK$2.30
2009-12-11

STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts recent listing Greens Holdings (1318.HK) at Overweight with HK$2.30 target; notes Greens a major supplier of heat transfer products, solutions, global leader in extended surface economizers, with market share of 37.5% worldwide, 66% in China; it's "well positioned to benefit from growing environmental concerns globally." Stock trades at 11X/9X Morgan Stanley's forecast FY10/11 EPS, in line with two small Chinese power equipment component makers' average of 10X; given Greens' earnings growth expected much stronger, higher-than-peers profitability, "we believe it at least deserves a large premium to the two Chinese power equipment component makers."

BUY GREENS at HKD1.86 & 1.76 !

2010-01-18T23:14:00.003+08:00

Buy Greens Holdings at HKD1.86 and average down if it touchs 1.76 again! This will be the bottom for this round correction!

GREENS格菱<01318.HK>料未来五年盈利持续增长

2010-01-18T22:56:00.002+08:00

格菱<01318.HK>主席Frank Ellis 对前景有信心。他指出，由於蒙古对余热发电需求大，相信未来业务发展持续上升，预期未来五年盈利会持续增长，并补充集团整体毛利率介乎25%-30%。

营运总监兼执行董事陈天翼表示，全球发电趋向节能减排，支持环保，集团可藉此机会有更好发展，余热发电业务於今年7月才开始营运，目前已占整体盈利约10%，预期未来钢铁及水电行业对该业务需求增加，相信未来会成为公司重要收入来源。

GREENS HOLDGINGS 1318.HK

2010-01-18T22:48:00.001+08:00

业务概述：
公司为首屈一指的主要热交换产品供应商，该等产品的设计旨在提高能源效率。公司过往专注于制造及销售热交换产品及解决方案，其中包括省煤器、余热回收产品（包括余热锅炉）、船用设备及锅炉组件以及相关服务及维修。最近，公司亦开始将业务多元化扩展至其他替代能源范畴，如余热发电及风电设备。

业务回顾：
公司专注于销售H型省煤器，此类带扩展受热面省煤器与一般光管省煤器比较，一般较小巧及较具成本效益，但亦要求技术上较复杂的生产过程。公司的H型省煤器使用的翅片管由金属管嵌上H型翅片管制成，特别切合燃煤发电厂等满布灰尘的工作环境。自二零零三年创立以来，公司已在中国成立生产设施，专注于中国市场的销售，而根据 Frost & SullivanLimited 的资料，中国为世界上最大的省煤器产品市场。公司目前明显为中国带扩展受热面省煤器供应商中的市场领导者，根据 Frost & Sullivan Limited 的资料，按于二零零八年出售的产品吨数计算，公司的带扩展受热面省煤器于中国占66%的市场份额。公司的省煤器产品乃供应予各锅炉生产商及设计师，包括 IHI、Vogt、Foster Wheeler、哈尔滨锅炉、上海锅炉及东方锅炉，并安装于世界各地的发电厂。

公司供应一系列的余热回收产品，其中包括作加工用途的余热锅炉及余热锅炉，其中许多仰赖公司于制造称为翅片管的热交换带扩展受热面管束（为热交换系统的最重要组件之一）的经验及能力。于近年来，公司越加专注于出售用于联合循环燃气轮机发电厂的余热锅炉产品予享负盛名的余热锅炉系统设计者，如 Vogt 及 Austrian Energy & Environment。根据 Frost & Sullivan 的资料，公司为以中国为基地向全球余热锅炉系统设计者供应余热锅炉模块的供应商中最大的一家。公司亦供应余热锅炉，其产生蒸气作为热能或加工用途，或结合蒸气轮机发电。余热锅炉的设计旨在透过减少向大气排放高温废气，从而减低污染。

公司自二零零三年开业，并供应超过150台用于不同用途并以不同燃料运作的省煤器。公司获得的知识及经验有助公司向客户提供优质设计。公司在焊制翅片方面的质量亦于竞争对手中鹤立鸡群，对发电量较高的大型项目尤其重要。公司的工程师透过与客户的工程师紧密合作，提供由初步查询起至初步及详细设计阶段的全面客户支援服务。公司致力开发产品及解决方案，以提高性能及效率、缩短停工期及延长使用年期，并符合环保法规。

公司已于中国长江三角洲的上海市及江苏省设立生产设施，藉此利用中国的成本及生产力优势。公司位处长江三角洲地区，有助公司获得大批工程人才，并且毗邻主要港口，方便运输及付运公司的产品予国际客户。公司亦维持于英国威克菲尔德业务运作，主要负责国际市场的产品工程及供应、以及为中国业务提供制造及工程支持及培训以符合客户的具体要求及国际标准。公司的英国业务亦提供服务及维修以及设计及制造公司中国业务中使用的翅片管焊接机。

业务展望：
公司致力成为全球领先的创新、优质以及环保热交换及替代能源产品及解决方案供应商。为达到此目标，公司已制定具备下列主要元素的业务策略：

增加产能
公司已于近年大量增加产能以配合公司产品的需求增长，并计划于可见将来继续扩充产能。特别是公司预期上海格林热能将逐步专注于生产公司的省煤器。公司计划逐步转移公司的余热回收产品及锅炉筒体的生产业务至格菱动力位于江苏省靖江市的设施。此外，公司预期格菱动力将增加生产过往（在作为重组的一部份出售 Greens UK 于格林沙洲的股权前）于格林沙洲生产的船用设备。公司计划透过购置额外生产设备于二零零九年底前大幅扩充格菱动力斜桥工厂及孤山工厂的产能，并计划分配全球发售所得款项中的104,000,000港元作该扩充用途。公司亦计划于中国靖江市一个港口附近兴建新生产设施，该设施主要用作制造余热回收产品及船用设备以作浮式生产储油轮及大型船用用途。公司计划动用26,000,000港元的全球发售所得款项。此外，公司正发展印度的生产设施，公司计划为此动用43,000,000港元的全球发售所得款项。公司亦将寻求于巴西兴建生产设施。公司相信产能扩充将有助公司持续发展及公司巩固核心产品的市场地位工作。

拓展全球销售网络
公司预期全球对为提高能源效率而设计的热交换产品及解决方案的需求将不断增加。公司相信该增幅将大部份归因于对能源需求增长以及世界各地环保意识加强。特别是由于环保法规日趋严厉，公司预期改造老化及不合规的锅炉的需求将增加，从而将推动省煤器（一般为改造锅炉的主要部件）的销售，因为省煤器将能提升效率，并且能提供更多空间安装脱硫的设备。

为把握此机会，公司计划开设策略性销售及市场推广办事处，以提高公司的全球市场覆盖，其中包括下列地点：

‧ 印度。根据 Frost & Sullivan Limited 的资料，印度为全世界第二大省煤器国家市场，仅次于中国。公司最近于印度钦奈成立代表办事处，目的为物色机会于此市场扩充公司的销售及发展省煤器及锅炉筒体生产设施。于二零零九年五月三十一日，公司有2名雇员于该代表办事处工作。公司计划于二零一零年兴建一个生产设施，初步聘用合共100名雇员。

‧ 新加坡。新加坡为亚太区的主要航运中心。因此，公司最近已于新加坡成立 Greens Marine Singapore，以专注销售船用锅炉及提供当地船用锅炉维修服务。于二零零九年五月三十一日，公司拥有3名雇员，而公司计划于二零一零年年底前为 Greens Marine Singapore 雇用合共50名雇员。

‧ 美国。美国是相当大的省煤器产品市场，并传统上以光管省煤器产品为主。公司现正于美国乔治亚州亚特兰大市成立销售办事处，以提升公司产品的知名度及销售额。公司计划于二零一零年年底前为公司于美国的销售办事处雇用10至20名雇员。

‧ 巴西。巴西是离岸钻探及石油开采的主要市场，亦为高压船用锅炉及余热锅炉的重要市场。公司正与潜在伙伴合作，在当地建立销售办事处。公司计划于二零一零年年初前为公司于巴西的销售办事处雇用5名雇员，并物色机会于其时兴建一个生产设施。

开发新产品应用及将业务范畴扩展至其他替代能源相关业务
公司的传统优势在于公司设计及生产热交换系统及部件（如省煤器及余热锅炉）及余热回收产品的经验及能力。为贯彻公司成为领先的热交换及替代能源产品及解决方案的供应商的目标，公司目前正寻求机会（并计划继续）开发新产品应用及将业务范畴扩展至其他替代能源相关业务，包括：

‧ 余热发电。公司最近进军余热发电业务。公司的余热发电厂（即新疆项目）已于二零零九年七月开始发电。公司亦计划取得有关发电厂设计及工程的技术及有意继续寻求余热发电的策略性联盟及收购机会。

‧ 制造风力发电塔筒。公司最近与一间在中国内蒙古从事风力发电塔筒生产业务的中国公司订立合营安排。公司预期合资公司于二零零九年底开展运作。公司拟继续探求机会，进一步发展在有关范畴的业务营运。

‧ 余热锅炉。近年来，公司一直专注于向余热锅炉系统设计者合作供应大型余热锅炉模块，以争取经验帮助公司打入有关产品的市场。为此，公司计划取得制造9F类余热锅炉的许可技术。此外，公司相信小型余热锅炉产品及柴油机所用的废气锅炉（两者一般用于热电联产发电厂，发电量低于50兆瓦）会提供越来越多的市场商机。因此，公司正专注于发展向发电厂提供综合解决方案的能力，包括系统设计以及全方位供应及安装能力。

Who is this Mahatir?....马哈迪“嘛嘛”（mamak）

2010-01-13T17:28:00.003+08:00

韦恩（Barry Wain）:
马哈迪作为出身普通的印裔回教徒或俗称“嘛嘛”（mamak）的“自卑情结”（inferiority complex），造就了他往后要强好胜，不服输的强人性格。因此，他在这本评传的第一章《受战争和和平政治化》中，就详细触及马哈迪避忌深谈，不为外人熟知的出身背景。
http://malaysiakini.com/news/121836

【行业分析】环保行业：关注污水处理带来的价值

2010-01-13T16:36:00.002+08:00

国内污水处理行业发展空间广阔。社科院研究显示国内工业化、城市化进程进入中期加速阶段，城市污水及工业废水处理需求将随之增加，城市污水处理将成为水务市场的主要增长点;国内污水处理设施建设和污水处理率还相对滞后。城市污水处理率与发达国家相比还存在着近20%的明显差距。预计城市污水处理量将保持11%左右的增长率。
　　投资增速扩大助推行业发展。2001-2007年，环境污染治理投资总额占GDP比重稳步从1.01%上升至1.36%。预计到“十一五”末，国内城镇污水处理能力将超过规划的1亿吨/日左右，城镇污水处理设施建设投资规模将超过4000亿元，在供水、污水处理、中水回用和排水、水污染防治等方面的总投资将超过1万亿元。　　污水处理费上涨趋势明显。国内污水处理费偏低，不足补偿运营成本。根据《节能减排综合性工作方案》，国内将全面开征城市污水处理费并提高收费标准，吨水平均收费标准原则上不低于0.8元将全面征收。短期来看，国内污水处理费的平均价格至少还有10%以上的涨幅空间;长期来看，随着排放标准的提高和污泥处置费用的增加，污水处理成本仍有可能上升，若仅按目前成本初步预计，污水处理费上调空间就将超过50%。相关上市公司可关注：创业环保(1065.HK)、合加资源。

深圳能源(000027)：打造“环保能源”第一股

2010-01-13T09:56:00.003+08:00

深圳能源集团股份有限公司是一家有着特殊历史的电力企业，借着改革开放的春风，依托深圳特区经济飞速发展的强大需求自主办电，为深圳经济社会快速发展提供了强有力的电力保障，做出了巨大贡献，其在过往的十多年里也由此获得了超常规发展，成为中国500强企业。如今，在新的经济形势下如何完成“二次创业”，实现企业的可持续发展，考验着这家实现整体上市不久的企业领导人的智慧。
　　实际上，深圳能源高自民董事长和李冰董事总经理对于产业布局早已有了自己的清晰方向、成熟思路和有效执行，那就是要打造“责任能源、实力能源、环保能源、和谐能源”。凭借“敢为天下先”的深能圳精神，深圳能源在烟气海水脱硫、垃圾焚烧发电、电厂废水零排放上继续率先实践，作为电力工业的探路者，真正践行着“环保能源”的理念，向低碳电力供应商转型，在节能、环保、减排成为国家经济发展主旋律的大背景下，领先一步、步步领先，为公司未来的可持续大发展创造了积极有力的条件。
　　环保“急先锋”　　说到打造“环保能源”，深圳能源在这一方面有着十分优良的历史传承。早在上世纪90年代，深圳能源在兴建妈湾电厂300MW燃煤机组时，就在粉尘排放处理和烟气脱硫方面下了功夫，尤其是1999年建成的妈湾电厂4号机组脱硫工程项目更成为了国家环保总局的烟气海水脱硫示范工程，同时使得广东省实现了燃煤机组烟气海水脱硫零的突破。　　目前，我国是世界上最大的二氧化硫排放国之一，年排放量超过千万吨，其中火电厂排放的二氧化硫占全国排放总量的1/3。严峻的环境形势迫使国家对电力行业减排二氧化硫提出了明确的任务要求，而彼时深圳能源减排二氧化硫的实践已经在进行中。　　海水脱硫工艺就是利用天然海水脱除烟气中二氧化硫的一种湿式烟气脱硫方法。经过大量论证，从上世纪九十年代中期起，深圳能源通过国际招标引入该项技术，由旗下的深圳能源环保工程公司负责海水脱硫工技术研究和产业开发，妈湾电厂斥资近10亿元建成了烟气海水脱硫系统。
　　经过近十年的建设，妈湾电厂6台机组均实现了烟气海水脱硫，每年减少二氧化硫排放4万多吨。在投建过程中，经过不懈努力，深圳能源环保有限公司逐渐完成了脱硫技术的吸收消化，最终实现了设备国产化和安装调试自主化，为海水脱硫工程在国内的推广应用打下了坚实基础。
　　在投建火电机组海水脱硫工程的之前，深圳能源还大力控制烟尘排放，采用国内先进的四电场高效静电除尘器，引进美国GE的电除尘控制系统，除尘效率高达99.6%。这些措施极大地改善了周边地区的大气环境质量，也赢得了社会各界的好评，不仅有效践行了“环保能源”的理念，更让企业赢得了“责任能源”的美誉。依托深圳能源等一批具有社会责任的大企业，深圳的“天更蓝、水更绿”，取得了经济建设和环境保护的双丰收，更获得国家环保模范城市的荣誉称号。
　　垃圾发电环保为先　　在烟气海水脱硫领域打了漂亮一仗，深圳能源又把目光投向了同属环保能源概念的垃圾发电领域。
　　垃圾焚烧发电可实现对垃圾的“无害化、减量化、资源化”处理，在目前的社会经济、技术与市场环境下，是破解垃圾处理难题的较理想方式。1998年朱镕基总理在欧洲参观垃圾发电厂，令深圳能源意识到这是一个国家迫切需要并且可以市场化的事业，遂展开国外考察，着手准备进行垃圾焚烧发电厂的投建。　　以下属深圳市能源环保有限公司为投资主体，引进比利时西格斯的先进技术，深圳能源陆续在深圳投建了3座垃圾焚烧发电厂，成为国内最早投运垃圾发电的能源企业之一，垃圾总处理能力达到了2450吨/日。在发展垃圾焚烧发电业务时，深圳能源坚持高标准的建设理念，环保标准与国际同步，各项指标均远远低于国家标准，各主要排放指标达到了欧洲排放标准，同时烟气排放数据与市环保局监控中心联网，实现烟气监测数据时刻受到监管。
　　记者日前来到深能环保旗下总投资5.9亿元的宝安垃圾电厂参观。在一片青山绿水、湖光山色之中，矗立着一栋白色建筑，厂区内外不仅没有垃圾异味，更看不到高大的烟囱冒出一丝黑烟。在处理车间，最令人印象深刻的是三套巨大的反应塔和除尘设备，工作人员告诉记者，这些装置也是整个垃圾焚烧烟气处理能否实现环保达标的关键设备之一。
　　据宝安垃圾发电厂魏厂长介绍，焚烧垃圾炉膛温度高达1000余度，可有效使二噁英分解，燃烧中形成的烟气进入反应塔，通过旋转雾化器、半干式反应塔系统、活性炭喷射系统、布袋除尘器相结合的烟气净化技术，中和烟气中酸性物质，吸附重金属和二噁英，截留灰尘，最后将飞灰固化送至危险废弃物填埋场，而冷却排出后的沪渣还可制造城建用砖块。据了解，国内有些垃圾焚烧企业因一味贪图节省投资成本，烟气未实现达标排放，从而造成严重的二次污染，酿成严重的社会问题。深圳能源则坚持高标准严要求，并坚持定期进行二噁英检测。测试结果显示，其垃圾焚烧发电厂的二噁英排放仅为每标准立方米0.02纳克以下，低于欧盟标准和国家标准不超过每标准立方米0.1纳克。
　　由于在垃圾焚烧发电领域名气大增，深圳能源如今已走出深圳，开始在武汉拓展垃圾发电新业务，并有意在垃圾焚烧发电设备领域一显身手，垃圾发电产业正成为深圳能源在环保能源领域的一大璀璨亮点。
　　创新技术打造核心竞争力　　通过研发掌握海水烟气脱硫技术和垃圾焚烧发电的相关环保技术，深圳能源又在旗下广东河源电厂成功探索了创新性“火力发电厂脱硫废水深度处理”环保技术，在国内首家真正实现了电厂废水“零排放”，成为国内发电企业打造“环保能源”、“责任能源”的典范。
　　记者日前在河源电厂看到，脱硫系统废水先进入预处理系统，以去除淤泥和重金属，其后再进入深度处理系统，使脱硫废水中溶解性固体以固体结晶盐的形式去除，处理后的出水则进入冷却塔循环使用。
　　据了解，这套系统每小时处理脱硫废水能力超过22立方米，目前已经产生了20多吨的固体结晶盐。经权威单位检测，出水水质远优于《工业循环冷却水处理设计规范》GB50050-2007中“间冷开式系统循环冷却水水质指标”，主要指标如氯离子小于3毫克/升，硫酸根离子小于5毫克/升，而标准分别是氯离子1000毫克/升,氯离子 + 硫酸根离子2500毫克/升。
　　实际上，正是深能环保在没有国内外成熟经验可循的情况下，运用拥有自主知识产权的垃圾焚烧发电厂沥滤液处理专利，自主创新研发出“燃煤电厂脱硫废水零排放处理”专有技术，攻克了废水“零排放”的最后一道坎，成功实现脱硫废水的回用处理。负责该系统设计建造的深能环保副总经理徐文军自豪地告诉记者，这套系统与技术是河源电厂环保创新亮点，为深能环保未来打造水处理主导产业奠定了坚实的基础。
　　在拓展环保能源上，深圳能源高层一直高瞻远瞩。早在深能环保成立之初，就要求专门组建垃圾焚烧发电技术设计研究所，消化吸收垃圾焚烧技术，将国外先进技术国产化。经过多年的发展，该设计研究所培养了一批优秀的工程设计人员,涵盖了污水治理、废气治理、热能、汽机、锅炉、电气等各种专业技术领域，而深能环保近三年投入的科研费用高达4700万元，保证深圳能源在垃圾焚烧技术领域的领先地位。
　　在业内人士看来，超前的理念与市场洞察力，以及先进的技术水平，正是深圳能源、深能环保在环保能源领域的核心竞争力之所在。技术国产化使深圳能源、深能环保掌握了垃圾焚烧的核心技术，从而能够在今后的垃圾焚烧发电项目建设上不受制于人，减少了对国外技术与设备的依赖性。
　　根据中国垃圾水份大、热值低的特点，深能环保设计研究所在消化吸收引进技术上取得了突破，从而形成一整套适应中国国情的垃圾焚烧发电设备与技术。在河源电厂真正实现废水“零排放”上发挥巨大作用的垃圾沥滤液热力法（CEAB）处理技术，依靠垃圾焚烧产生的余热对垃圾沥滤液进行处理，它的运行成本和投资都比较低，是一种“以垃圾治理垃圾”的技术。处理后的水可以达到中水回用的标准，可用于电厂内循环冷却水补充水，它解决了目前困扰国内众多垃圾焚烧厂的技术难题，填补了国内技术的空白，获得国家实用新型专利，亦为深圳能源在环保能源领域做大做强创造了条件。　　该研究所副所长杨蕾向记者表示，他们一直在争上游，目前已实现设备设计和制造的全面国产化，不仅消化了比利时西格斯先进的垃圾焚烧炉和烟气净化系统整套专有技术，达到全部国产化，并在国产化的过程中针对我国的垃圾特点进行了改良，使该技术更适合焚烧我国的垃圾，倾斜往复式阶梯炉排垃圾焚烧炉及发电技术装备国产化项目被列为“国家资源节约与环境保护重大示范工程”。
　　与此同时，针对国内垃圾发电产业发展的新形势，深圳能源调整发展规划，以深能环保的深圳垃圾焚烧发电项目为依托，积极筹划建立垃圾焚烧技术研发与装备制造基地，掌握核心技术，并逐渐延伸到垃圾焚烧发电的上下游相关领域。据了解，深能环保设计研究所正在研发的污泥干化焚烧技术、海水淡化技术、脱硫废水处理技术等形成在众多尖端技术上的国内领先研发基地，打造的重点技术实验室将逐步成为市级、省级、国家级重点实验室，以推动我国城市垃圾处理等领域和行业的技术进步和产业化。
来源:中国证券报·中证网

ShangHai Electric 2727.HK

2010-01-12T19:30:00.005+08:00

上海电气(2727.HK)：设备龙头布局新能源

公司从事设计、制造及销售发电及输配电设备业务的规模较大的公司之一，与西门子、ABB等国际制造商建立战略合作关系。公司换股吸收合并上电股份后，成为集大型电力设备、机电一体化、重工、轨道交通设备、环保设备为一体的上市公司。公司旗下有电站、输配电、重工、轨道交通、机电一体化、机床、环保、电梯、印刷机械等多个产业集团，致力于技术创新工作，制造出一大批代表国家装备工业水平、处于世界领先的产品，一些产品填补国内外空白。
　　
公司增发布局新能源
　　公司已将新能源业务作为未来发展的重心,此次非公开发行计划发行不超过7亿股,募集资金不超过50亿元,资金主要布局新能源业务的产能扩建项目,其中核电产业投资11.5亿,项目投产后计划实现21亿元以上产值;风电产业8.4亿,投产后计划实现约100亿产值.公司预计09年核电业务将翻番,风电业务取得70%以上的增长。　　
核电领先优势将长期享有
　　公司在核电设备领域具有强大优势,公司拥有国内最强的成套设备生产能力,大型锻件生产优势与成本优势明显,是国内唯一有能力生产堆内构件, 控制棒驱动机构的核岛厂商,并为国内唯一同时掌握AP1000和EPR两大三代核电技术的公司。公司占据核岛主设备市场份额的46%, 为国内三大电站设备商之首.把握国家大力提倡清洁能源发展的机遇, 公司计划积极扩充产能和承接订单,抓住产业潜在的高成长机会.增发项目达产后, 公司核岛主设备产能将由目前的2.5台套升至4-6台套, 堆内构件/控制棒驱动机构产能由目前4.5台套升至8-10台套。公司作为国内核电设备的领军人, 在核电尤其是核岛设备领域的优势将长期享有,未来业务高增可期。
先强后大努力扩展风电份额
　　公司风电业务采用先强后大战略,与德国Aerogyn合作开发2MW风电机组,引进全套风机设计基础分析软件,并利用集团设备配套能力,努力打下自主研发生产基础,提升产品质量与市场竞争力.公司风电业务具有日益完善的产业链优势,以及与五大发电集团关系良好的客户资源优势,09年现有400台风机产能,计划至2011年左右形成1000台产能,其中2MW风机800台, 届时力争进入国内风电市场第一梯队。　　
手持订单依旧超过1700亿
　　虽然目前经济放缓可能令部分订单交付放缓，但是公司目前到2009年一季度止已经达到了1730亿元人民币，这些定单也基本固定了未来数年的销售预期。我们认为2010年销售将随着经济恢复，各业务板块均有增长，整体销售将比2009年有20%的增长。

该股近期稳步攀升，量能温和放大，中短期均线支撑较强。今日更是在大盘大跌之际，逆势翻红。足以表明该股的强势。建议投资者重点关注。

武钢股份：钢铁龙头蓄势充分

2010-01-12T12:20:00.001+08:00

武钢股份(600005)，作为钢铁行业龙头，该股近期涨幅明显骗小，后市具备一定上涨空间。　　行业龙头，产品种类多　　公司为国内第三大钢铁企业，钢材产品涉及7大类、500多个品种，是我国板材主要生产基地之一，也是国内产品品种最全、产量最大的热轧板卷供应商，国内产品品种最全的专用中厚板生产厂，公司将在国内独家生产全系列轿车用板，公司进口矿比例约为60%;二冷轧投产后，公司将具备生产高档冷板及高档轿车板的能力，将努力打造成我国汽车板的主要生产基地和全球最具竞争力的冷轧硅钢片生产基地;08年管线钢在中亚管线、南非管线和西气东输二线等国内外重大工程中的市场份额达35%;已研制开发了新产品85个系列、300多个品种，新产品年产量超过200万吨，“双高”产品比例达到由04年的54%提高到08年的80%以上。　　冷轧硅钢片生产龙头，市场占有率高　　公司是国内冷轧硅钢产品品种最齐全、规模最大的生产企业,并保持在冷轧取向硅钢片和高牌号冷轧无取向硅钢片的国内独家生产地位，现具有12万吨取向硅钢和96万吨无取向硅钢的生产能力，公司硅钢年产能已达142万吨，具有自主知识产权、国产化率达到90%的二硅钢竣工投产，使公司硅钢品种、技术与规模继续保持国内冶金行业首位，公司硅钢片已成为国内外许多重点工程和用户的首选，先后被用于北京正负电子对撞机、秦山核电站、登上“神舟五号、六号”载人飞船;而且成功地进入日本三洋、松下、日立等公司,韩国DPC公司、美国的西屋公司，美国的高能加速器。　　蓄势充分，适当关注　　二级市场上，公司股价长期在年线上方徘徊，其股价重心稳步上移，虽然该股近期仍有反复，但反弹趋势已经基本确立，而且其短期均线指标具备很强支撑作用，后市可给予适当关注。

Malaysia Boleh!!!!iiiiALLAH pls help Malaysia!

2010-01-11T18:25:00.004+08:00

When "ALLAH" issue becomes "HAL LA" in Malaysia, where is the tolerance among the races?

The extremists try to change Malaysia into Pakistan or Afghanistan?

Want to become developed country in 2020? My foot! Mentally not developed how to develop a country to become an advance one???

If one is so faithful to his/her God or Allah or whatever it's name, please practice it, not only by shouting slogan like "Malaysia Boleh!"

Any religion provokes violence? The answer is definitely no!!

Violence is only for those uncivilised.

上海电气 (2727.HK)：设备龙头布局新能源

2010-01-11T16:22:00.000+08:00

公司是我国从事设计、制造及销售发电及输配电设备业务的规模较大的公司之一，与西门子、ABB等国际制造商建立战略合作关系。公司换股吸收合并上电股份后，成为集大型电力设备、机电一体化、重工、轨道交通设备、环保设备为一体的上市公司。公司旗下有电站、输配电、重工、轨道交通、机电一体化、机床、环保、电梯、印刷机械等多个产业集团，致力于技术创新工作，制造出一大批代表国家装备工业水平、处于世界领先的产品，一些产品填补国内外空白。　　公司增发布局新能源　　公司已将新能源业务作为未来发展的重心,此次非公开发行计划发行不超过7亿股,募集资金不超过50亿元,资金主要布局新能源业务的产能扩建项目,其中核电产业投资11.5亿,项目投产后计划实现21亿元以上产值;风电产业8.4亿,投产后计划实现约100亿产值.公司预计09年核电业务将翻番,风电业务取得70%以上的增长。　　核电领先优势将长期享有　　公司在核电设备领域具有强大优势,公司拥有国内最强的成套设备生产能力,大型锻件生产优势与成本优势明显,是国内唯一有能力生产堆内构件, 控制棒驱动机构的核岛厂商,并为国内唯一同时掌握AP1000和EPR两大三代核电技术的公司。公司占据核岛主设备市场份额的46%, 为国内三大电站设备商之首.把握国家大力提倡清洁能源发展的机遇, 公司计划积极扩充产能和承接订单,抓住产业潜在的高成长机会.增发项目达产后, 公司核岛主设备产能将由目前的2.5台套升至4-6台套, 堆内构件/控制棒驱动机构产能由目前4.5台套升至8-10台套。公司作为国内核电设备的领军人, 在核电尤其是核岛设备领域的优势将长期享有,未来业务高增可期。　　先强后大努力扩展风电份额　　公司风电业务采用先强后大战略,与德国Aerogyn合作开发2MW风电机组,引进全套风机设计基础分析软件,并利用集团设备配套能力,努力打下自主研发生产基础,提升产品质量与市场竞争力.公司风电业务具有日益完善的产业链优势,以及与五大发电集团关系良好的客户资源优势,09年现有400台风机产能,计划至2011年左右形成1000台产能,其中2MW风机800台, 届时力争进入国内风电市场第一梯队。　　手持订单依旧超过1700亿　　虽然目前经济放缓可能令部分订单交付放缓，但是公司目前到2009年一季度止已经达到了1730亿元人民币，这些定单也基本固定了未来数年的销售预期。我们认为2010年销售将随着经济恢复，各业务板块均有增长，整体销售将比2009年有20%的增长。　　二级市场看，该股近期稳步攀升，量能温和放大，中短期均线支撑较强。今日更是在大盘大跌之际，逆势翻红。足以表明该股的强势。建议投资者重点关注。

亚太清洁能源(green energy) 投资去年首超美洲

2010-01-11T16:17:00.000+08:00

根据彭博新能源财经统计，2009亚太地区清洁能源投资已经超过美洲。总体而言，全球全年新增清洁能源投资1450亿美元，同比下降6.5%，而2008年这一数字曾创下1550亿美元的年度峰值。　　在全球面临60年来最严重的经济衰退时，清洁能源投资却表现较为坚挺，主要得益于活跃的亚洲投资，特别是中国在风力发电领域的投资。2009年亚太地区新增的清洁能源领域金融投资总额达到373亿美元，首次超过美洲同期的320亿美元。欧洲、中东和非洲继续以422亿美元的投资总额领跑世界。2009年欧洲、中东和非洲地区的新增金融投资下降14%，美洲下降25%，而亚太地区则在风力投资的推动下取得25%的增长。　　统计显示，2009年1450亿新投资额中的最大单一领域投资为919亿美元的固定资产投资，如建设风力发电场、太阳能发电站和生物燃料工厂，该部分投资比2008年下降了5%。清洁能源公司通过二级市场获得的投资来源为131亿美元，比2008年下降5%；而由风险资本和私人股权基金的民营企业进行的投资则下降更多，投资总额为66亿美元，同比下降44%。　　中国的清洁能源投资在2009年激增。12月，风力发电项目开发商中国龙源电力首次公开募资26亿美元，成为两年来最大的清洁能源公司IPO项目。中国大力投资于风能和太阳能的“超级基地”使得清洁能源资产融资尤其活跃，2009年中国风电新增金融投资218亿美元，同比增长27%；太阳能投资为19亿美元，同比大增97%。　　彭博新能源财经首席执行官Michael Liebreich说：“2009年全球投资数远高于预期。即使在经济困难时期，清洁能源仍然是一个长期增长领域，亚洲已经不仅是能源消费重地，而且也拥有很强的清洁能源投资能力。”

1065.HK Yearly Result.

2010-01-08T14:43:00.001+08:00

TianJin Capital 1065.HK Interim Result.

2010-01-08T14:40:00.001+08:00

TianJin Capital 1065.HK

2010-01-07T12:11:00.002+08:00

TianJin Capital code in ShangHai :600874

2010-01-06T19:03:00.001+08:00

TianJin Capital (1065.HK)

2010-01-06T18:45:00.001+08:00

创业环保：水务龙头 上半年净利增长7.68％
　　8月24日，创业环保发布了2009年半年报，报告显示上半年公司实现营业收入58,766万元，较2008年同期增长14.38%;营业利润为14322.2万元，较2008年同期增长5.44%，实现净利润人民币10801.3万元(不包含少数股东损益)，较2008年同期增长7.68%。　　分析指出，营业收入增加的主要原因：一是由于集团母公司污水处理厂处理水量的增加，使得收入较2008年同期有所增加;二是由于西安创业水务有限公司于2008年5月17日正式商业运行，故2008年同期西安创业水务有限公司收入仅为5月17日—6月累计金额，使得2009年上半年收入较2008 年同期有较大幅度提高。收入的增长促使营业利润及净利润增加。　　中投顾问环保行业研究员侯宇轩认为，近年来水务行业发生了一系列深刻的变革，在行业结构上，市场竞争格局变动明显，非核心企业大量退出，龙头企业进一步提高了市场占有率。
　　侯宇轩指出，当前水资源短缺和水污染严重已经成为我国城市可持续发展的主要制约因素，作为具备环保概念的水务板块，在国家大力扶持节能环保业的背景下，将受益明显，未来赋予了高成长性。　　据中投顾问发布的《2009-2012年中国水务行业投资分析及前景预测报告》显示，按照国家“十一五”期间的目标，全国城镇污水集中处理能力将达到1亿立方米/天，年集中处理量达到302亿立方米，要实现上述目标，需新增投资3320亿元，这将给相关上市公司带来巨大的发展机遇。
来源:东方财富

TianJin Capital (1065.HK)

2010-01-06T18:40:00.000+08:00

创业环保业绩符合预期新项目进展顺利
　　中期业绩：公司实现营业收入58766万元，同比增长14.38%;营业利润14322.2万元，同比增长5.44%，实现净利润10801.3万元，同比增长7.68%，基本每股收益0.08元，符合预期。　　业绩分析：(1)上半年公司共处理污水3.66亿立方米，同比增长了18.45%，主要为天津本埠污水处理厂处理水量增加;(2)西安污水处理厂及净化中心于08年5月17日正式商业运行，污水处理规模27万吨/日，今年新增4个多月的供应量;(3)自来水供水量同比下降了11.09%，主要是由于曲靖第三自来水厂自08年年底持续断流，于今年6月初才恢复正常取水。供水量减少导致吨水折旧增加，上半年公司供水业务毛利率仅达到2.04%，同比减少了31.84个百分点;(4)赤壁项目投入商业运营时间超预期，我们原预计今年下半年投产，实际已于今年5月投入商业运营，赤壁项目污水处理能力4万方/日;(5)今年8月10日公司中标阜阳颖东污水处理厂项目，采用BOT特许经营模式，设计规模为15万吨/日，其中一期为3万吨/日，二期9万方/日。　　两大不确定性因素进展状况：(1)天津地区特许经营权。天津市政府规定公司天津污水处理厂必须实施特许经营。目前公司在天津地区污水日处理规模为164.5万方，污水处理费较高，为1.93元/方。　　针对水价、水量、厂外管网等问题公司还在与天津市建设行政主管部分进行深入谈判，具体方案还未确定;(2)天津市2010年底前在建和已建成运行的污水处理厂出水要达到一级排放标准，公司现运营的四座污水处理厂执行二级出水标准。报告期内公司天津本埠四座污水处理厂升级改造工程的环境评级报告、可行性研究报告已获天津市相关主管主管部门批复，升级改造工程总投资约10.4亿元。咸阳路和北仓污水处理厂升级改造工程已于报告期内正式开工，四座污水处理厂升级改造工程主体工程预计于2010年完工，将增加公司的资金压力和运营成本。　　盈利预测与投资建议：不考虑上述不确定因素，我们预计公司09、10年公司净利润分别为24903万元和26707万元，EPS分别为0.17元、0.18元，对应PE分别为34.4X和32.1X，估值相对合理，维持"中性"投资评级。

US Energy Stocks.

2009-03-23T15:15:00.001+08:00

Following the recent market crash in the oil and energy sector, many investors have gone bargain hunting. But in this volatile market, which energy stock has the greatest risk to reward ratio? Without knowing when depressed energy prices will rise again, which names offer protection against bankruptcy and insolvency? My favorites in this type of market are the heavy hitters, the stalwarts of the market. Sure they may not have as much upside as some of the smaller names, but they offer me the much sought after safety blanket in today's rough market, while still capturing the upside in the eventual rise in energy prices.
The following is a brief overview of the top 5 energy companies based by market cap:
ExxonMobil (XOM): Heavily dwarfing its rivals with a near $330 billion market cap, ExxonMobil's ability to use pricing power is unmatched. It currently spots a P/E of 7.5 and a dividend yield of 2.3%. With a share price over 1/3 lower than its 52 week high, Exxon is a natural place to start your research.
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR): It is the largest producer of gas and oil in Brazil. It also has strong ties internationally and could benefit from possible currency exchange rates. Its superiority is shown in its 15% profit margins and 21% operating margins, out pacing many rivals. With a market cap of $140 billion, PBR's reserves and future projects leave it well positioned for the future.
PetroChina (PTR): Based in Beijing China, PetroChina's stock followed the roller coaster that was the energy bubble. After Warren Buffett sold his entire stake, and following their status as the first trillion dollar company, PTR's stock price has come down to earth. With a strong grip on China's natural gas and petroleum production, and a reasonable market cap of $140 billion, PetroChina may have become a bargain.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A): Located in the Netherlands, RDS has a strong brand name and a large, developed production arm. Recently on the Goldman Sachs conviction buy list, RDS may be a value with a P/E of around 6. It also sports a dividend yielding 6%. Royal Dutch Shell A shares have a market cap of just over $80 billion.
Chevron (CVX): Another beaten down behemoth, Chevron sports a P/E of 5.5 and a dividend yield of almost 4%. Their profit margins are a tad over 9% and there has been a recent spur of insider buying. It has the same market cap as rival BP, around $125 billion, yet is able to get away with having 1/3 less employees (67,000).
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PUER ART & CULTURE

2008-07-06T16:36:00.001+08:00

Disaster reveals opportunities..

2008-05-28T18:00:00.004+08:00

A strongger China in times to come after a series of disasters........

WILMAR,SIME to Golden AGRI

2008-05-13T17:01:00.002+08:00

UPDATE 3-Wilmar profit soars; sees prices staying firm
(Adds CEO comments) By Ovais Subhani SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) -

Wilmar International, the world's largest listed palm oil firm, said on Tuesday it expected to continue to profit from soaring commodity prices after posting a seven-fold jump in first-quarter earnings.

Wilmar shares rose more than 2 percent to an 11-week high, and analysts said they were surprised by the sharp rise in profits in a quarter that usually sees a lull in the palm oil business.
"Profit margins were significantly ahead of our expectations.

We expect subsequent quarters to improve on seasonally higher production volume and higher crude palm oil selling prices," said Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Tiah.
Tiah said he was unlikely to change his buy rating or S$5 target price for Wilmar, given the risk on downstream refining margins that could be volatile from quarter to quarter.

UBS analyst Gaurang Bhatia said Wilmar's pretax profit margin of $27 per tonne for the quarter, compared to a year-ago $15, was unsustainable as more refining capacity was likely to be added in the industry.

Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong said palm oil prices could be supported as record crude oil prices were fuelling U.S.
and European demand for biodiesel, which can be made from palm oil.
"Palm oil prices are expected to remain firm in the forseeable future," he told a briefing, adding that if crude oil prices topped $130 a barrel that would mean crude palm oil would fetch over $900 a tonne.

"If the U.S. continues to support biofuel and European governments go for biodiesel then palm oil would remain at high prices. The current prices are not cheap." Malaysia's benchmark contract for palm oil futures was quoted at 3,551 ringgit ($1,106) per tonne on Tuesday, down 21 percent since a record 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.

Wilmar is the world's biggest palm oil refiner but is cushioned from soaring feedstock costs because of its huge plantation acreage.
Kuok also said the firm, which had a capital expenditure plan of $800 million to $1 billion at the start of the year, would continue to look for acquisition targets and expansion in new markets such as Africa and central Asia.

FAVOURABLE OUTLOOK Wilmar, which owns oil palm plantations and runs milling, crushing, refining and processing plants in Indonesia and Malaysia, said January-March net profit rose to $343 million from a restated $49.7 million a year earlier.
Revenue rose to $7.1 billion from nearly $2 billion.

"While global economic growth in 2008 remains uncertain, led by concerns about a possible U.S. recession and credit tightening, the prospects for agricultural commodities continue to be favourable," the company said in a statement.

Wilmar has four biofuel plants in Indonesia and Malaysia, with combined annual production capacity of 1.05 million tonnes.

Wilmar is expected to post full-year 2008 net profit of $921.3 million, against $580.4 million in 2007, according to 14 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates before Tuesday's results.

Wilmar made its trading debut in Singapore in August 2006 following a reverse takeover of Ezyhealth Asia Pacific.
Last year, it completed the purchase of the palm plantation and edible oils businesses belonging to Malaysia's Kuok Group, a move which doubled its plantation landbank to about 570,000 hectares (1.4 million acres).
Headquartered in Singapore, Wilmar operates in 20 countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India and Europe.
Shares in Wilmar, valued at about $23 billion, have lost 6 percent since the start of the year, after more than doubling last year, while the Singapore stock market <.FTSTI> has fallen 8 percent.

Wilmar trades at about 26 times forecast earnings, compared with 11 times for local peer Golden Agri and 16 times for Sime Darby , the world's largest palmoil producer.

Asia telcos lure investors..

2008-05-13T16:20:00.003+08:00

Investors look set to pump more money into Asian telecoms stocks, drawn by

the sector's high cash payouts and
stable earnings prospects, as they seek refuge from turmoil in financial markets, sky-high inflation and a slowing U.S. economy.

Compared with technology, banking and consumer stocks, Asian telecoms carriers are seen offering shelter from the subprime storm, ranking among the top five sectors in terms of yield, returns and earnings growth this year.

Favourite stocks include Taiwan's largest operator Chunghwa Telecom Co <2412.tw> and South Korea's second-ranked mobile firm KTF Corp <032390.ks>, which are relatively cheap, generate robust cashflows and offer dividend yields above 5 percent.

Investors are more wary of carriers in China, India and Indonesia. These firms offer stronger growth potential, thanks to their rapidly expanding subscriber bases, but escalating price competition and higher regulatory risks are a concern.

"When markets are volatile, sectors that have high yield and generate a lot of cashflow and have fairly certain earnings growth will be in favour, and the telco sector fits that pretty well -- telcos are the new utility stocks," said Michael Kerley, a London-based fund manager with Henderson Global Investors.

"I expect markets to stay volatile, and people tend to be more willing to pay for certainty when markets are volatile, so telcos will remain attractive," he said, adding that this situation could last another six months or longer.

Asia's telecoms sector is ranked a top performer in terms of dividend yield, earnings per share (EPS) growth and return on equity (ROE) ratios, in comparison with other sectors like finance, raw materials, property, healthcare and retail.

Return on equity measures how much profit a company generates with the money that shareholders have invested. A business with a high ROE is likely to be one that is able to generate cash internally.

According to recent data from J.P. Morgan Securities, the telecoms services sector has the highest forecast dividend yield of 2.8 percent this year, followed by the materials industry at 2.7 percent. The sector's forecast ROE stands at 14.1 percent, second after the energy industry's 16.6 percent.

Merrill Lynch ranks telecoms as the third-best performers in terms of EPS growth this year at 17.4 percent, after forecast 22.3 percent growth for the discretionary consumer segment and 36.8 percent for the non-semiconductor technology sector.

"We don't expect any slowdown in the Asian telecoms sector as domestic consumption is holding up well," said Credit Suisse analyst Colin McCallum.
"It remains to be seen whether high food -- in this case, rice -- prices has an impact, but we're not hearing operators talk about it as a major factor yet." CHEAP, CASH-RICH In terms of valuations, the telecoms sector appears more pricey relative to the technology, banking and raw material sectors, but the defensive nature of its cashflow and profits more than compensates for this, analysts said.

Merrill ranks Asian telecoms as the sixth cheapest -- at 18.7 times 2008 earnings -- out of 11 sectors, while Citigroup Global Markets ranks the industry 14th least expensive -- at 15.4 times 2008 earnings -- out of 24 sectors.

Top investor picks range from Taiwan's second-ranked carrier Far EasTone Telecom <4904.tw> and third-ranked Taiwan Mobile <3045.tw> to South Korea's top fixed-line operator KT Corp <030200.ks> and number three player LG Telecom Co <032640.ks>.

"Korea is the stand-out cheapest in the region -- you get pretty good yields, strong balance sheets, and attractive valuations, even on earnings which have been hard-hit by overly aggressive marketing campaigns," said Peter Wilmshurst, a Melbourne-based fund manager with Franklin Templeton Investments.

KT Corp ranks among the top five cheapest integrated telecoms operators in Asia Pacific -- at a 2008 PER of 12.5 times, out of a universe of 15 stocks, recent Credit Suisse data showed.
LG Telecom and KTF are also the cheapest and second-cheapest mobile operators in the region -- at 6.5 and 10 times 2008 earnings -- a ranking of 24 stocks from Credit Suisse showed.

Henderson's Kerley favours Far EasTone and Taiwan Mobile.
"They are cheap and hugely cash-generative. Although the market is fairly mature, the need for significant capital expenditure is muted, so these firms generate significant annual free cashflows and dividend yields are over 5 percent," he added.

In terms of 2008 forecast dividend yields, Chunghwa offers the third-highest rate of 6.4 percent, out of a ranking of 15 Asia-Pacific integrated telecom stocks by Credit Suisse.
Far EasTone is second in terms of offering the highest yield -- at 7.1 percent -- according to Credit Suisse's ranking of 24 Asia-Pacific mobile operator stocks.
The lowest forecast yields are from Japan's KDDI Corp <9433.t> at 1.6 percent, China Telecom Corp <0728.hk> at 1.7 percent, as well as India's Bharti Airtel Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd , both at zero percent, the data showed.

"Chunghwa is debt-free and we usually pay out all our reserves when we return additional cash to shareholders -- we don't retain excess cash, and we plan to continue to do this," said Chunghwa spokeswoman Shen Fu-fu.
"Our cash is for share buybacks, capital reduction or overseas expansion such as our recent $30 million joint venture with Vietnam's Viettel," she added.

Meanwhile, some analysts are less enthusiastic about China Telecom and China Netcom Group Corp <0906.hk>, the country's top two fixed-line operators.
"Benefits from industry restructuring have already been reflected in their stock prices and valuations are too stretched," said Cazenove analyst Lai Voon San.

Henderson's Kerley is also shying away from Chinese and Indonesian operators.

"The regulatory environment in China is very unclear, and we're not comfortable with that. We're also not keen on Indonesia -- competition is intense and lots of new players are entering the market -- we prefer to get exposure through SingTel." Singapore Telecommunications Ltd , Southeast Asia's largest phone company, has spent about S$18 billion in recent years buying stakes in mobile operators in high-growth Asian markets ranging from Pakistan to Thailand. It owns 35 percent of PT Telekomunikasi Selular , Indonesia's top mobile firm.
SingTel also owns a 30 percent stake in Bharti, which has seen its share price fall on concerns over the extent of debt financing that would be used to fund a potential acquisition of a majority stake in South Africa-based rival MTN Group .

Ten Years to come for Chian..

2008-05-08T19:29:00.001+08:00

China still has a long road to travel before becoming an international financial hub, although it has made big strides in recent years, a report by Xinhua Far East China Ratings says. Among the obstacles facing China's financial system, the credit rating agency said, is a lack of balance -- it is much easier for large enterprises to raise capital than it is for small and medium-sized enterprises. The system is also hampered by an underdeveloped fixed-income market, a lack of institutional investors, weak disclosure rules and a lack of innovation. "For the sound development of the financial system, China has to look at the fundamentals," said Chung-Hsing Chen, vice president and head of ratings at Xinhua Finance, the parent of Xinhua Far East. "I think the regulators here have matured a lot in the past two decades but they still do not have sufficient exposure to the global environment as to what it takes to make the market work better," said Chen. The report said the government needs to gradually deregulate the markets. Integration of the regulatory bodies could help the process of oversight and deregulation of the markets, it said. "In order to promote fair competition in the market, the government should relax stringent approval requirements for traditional businesses and normal projects. Xinhua Far East endorses speeding up the development of multi-layered capital markets." At a minimum, it said, the government should strive to further diversify the ownership structure of state-owned enterprises, strengthen corporate governance, and encourage foreign private-sector companies to list in the A-share market. Developing the country's bond market in order to provide securities firms with more revenue should be a major focus of reform, Xinhua Far East said. Because of their heavy reliance on trading income, local securities houses are over-exposed to fluctuations in the stock market. Instead, they should diversify their activities and become financial holding companies, the report said. Given the current weak state of global markets and the amount of reform that needs to be undertaken, it could take a decade for China's capital markets to achieve international status. "In five years China's securities industry will be much more mature, but in ten years it could become a major financial hub for the region," Chen said.

次贷危机中，中国机遇何在?-意见领袖-《财经网》

2008-05-02T18:58:00.000+08:00

次贷危机中，中国机遇何在?-意见领袖-《财经网》

黑岩CEO劳伦斯·芬克谈教训

2008-05-02T18:04:00.002+08:00

【《财经网》专稿/特派记者陈竹发自美国华盛顿】黑岩（BlackRock）董事长兼首席执行官劳伦斯·芬克是华尔街上最近的红人，美联储没有竞标就直接选定黑岩作为贝尔斯登300亿美元问题资产的管理人。　　这家管理着逾1.35万亿美元资金，却一直低调行事的公司，因为被美联储选中接手贝尔斯登的300亿美元问题资产而被推到镁光灯下，芬克被称为Mr. Fix-it。　　4月23日，芬克在赴华盛顿与美联储主席伯南克探讨贝尔斯登问题资产的管理事宜间隙，接受了《财经》杂志的专访。　　强调风险管理　　对于美联储的这一决定，国会议员们在听证会上不依不饶地逼问伯南克：美联储为何不竞标就直接选定黑岩？又是否能够确保黑岩能把纳税人兜着的、作价300亿美元的贝尔斯登资产如数收回来？　　伯南克的回答是：“不能肯定，但这是一家经验丰富的专业公司。”　　芬克透露，黑岩已经接手了贝尔斯登的资产，美联储给的期限是十年。芬克说，在短期内清算这些资产不是不可能，但黑岩的目标是，不仅要收回资产，还要确保不会给其他公司造成压力、不损害资本市场。　　作为贝尔斯登问题资产的管理者，芬克分析了导致贝尔斯登轰然倒下的主要原因——信用危机和资本债务的错配。　　信用危机是因为人们对风险的认识不当。同很多其他华尔街公司一样，贝尔斯登受利润驱动，没有理解顾及到安全因素——他们依赖的不是风险管理部门，而是S&P和Moody’s这样的评级机构。最后，他们是拿到了AAA的评级，是避免了信用风险，但事实证明，这不过是一种假象。　　芬克认为，不少声名显赫的华尔街公司之所以会在这次危机中损失万亿，就是因为他们没有正确理解风险，不知道自己投资的产品到底是什么。此外，芬克指出，在很多华尔街公司，风险管理部被纳为贸易平台，缺乏独立性，无法适当地发挥风险评估的功能。　　“贝尔斯登的不幸还有更深层次的原因，”芬克说：“一些公司错以为资本很便宜，而且资本会永远便宜下去。一些公司因为资产与债务的错配——即大量的长期资产和大量的短期负债——而陷入流动性挣扎。贝尔斯登就犯了这样的错误。它垮掉的时候，手上其实捏着很多长期债务资产——它过于依赖Repo隔夜拆借市场市场了。倘若贝尔斯登能像雷曼兄弟那样，拥有一定的长期负债，就不至于挺不过难关。”　　在华尔街，一则有关黑岩的传统流传颇广：在周一的例会上，芬克要求从事债券买卖、房地产投资和私募基金等业务单元的负责人一一进行业务汇报。倘若某个负责人大谈业绩却忽略了风险分析，芬克就会重重地靠到沙发椅上，闭目养神，以沉默表示不满。　　在采访中，芬克笑着默认了这个传闻。他说，黑岩刚成立的时候，风险管理部工作的员工就占到员工总数的四分之一，而这个比例在其他公司只有5%到3%。　　“这在20年前是闻所未闻的。别人说，哦，你们公司是规避风险的。我说那是误解，风险管理并非风险规避。倘若你真正理解了风险，就不需要被动规避，而可以主动承担更多的风险，”芬克说。　　黑岩的风险管理部不仅为本公司服务，也为价值7万亿美元的客户资产提供风险分析。　　芬克说，很多公司之所以雇用黑岩做风险分析，是因为风险管理的建立并非一日之功。芬克说他常常警告客户，黑岩解决方案是可以帮你理解风险，但要在你的公司里建立起重视风险管理的文化，可能得花好几年的时间。　

中国机会　

　“在全球其他很多地区预计将遭受信贷危机更多影响之际，中国代表着一个投资机遇。” 芬克说。　　今年2月，黑岩与中行联手创建了中银基金管理有限公司（下称中银基金）。黑岩持有16.5%的股权。　　2006年底，黑岩就得到中国全国社会保障基金(NSSF)的授权，负责一小部分中国养老基金的海外投资。芬克承认，黑岩已与另外好几家国有退休基金管理项目签订了协议，但由于客户尚未公开消息，所以现在不方便透露细节。　　与世界上大多数主权财富基金皆有有合作的黑岩已向中国投资有限公司提出申请，要求管理中投公司即将发放的首批300亿美元投资授权的部分资金。　　芬克说：“我们靠的不是快速回报，而是稳定的，始终如一的发展。”　　同索罗斯一样，芬克也十分看好中国的股市。不同的是，索罗斯认为中国股市处于泡沫初启之时，而芬克认为，股市的大涨大跌引起人们对泡沫的担忧，但泡沫并不存在。　　“很多投资者可能初一试水就得到不少回报，人们兴奋地赚了一笔又一笔，却不清楚为什么自己能赚到钱，但那么高的市盈率肯定也没法长久。”芬克说，“随着股市投机逐渐缓和，股价回到基本面，后面迎来的是稳定发展期。市场信心亦会在这个过程中得以重建。”　　芬克认为，鉴于中国股市已从去年四季度触及的峰值水平下挫近三分之一，重新考虑投资个别中国公司的时机到了。“从市盈率、公司和所在国的基本情况看，在中国做长线投资是十分有利可图的。”芬克说：“所以，我常常和我遍布全球的客户讲，现在是‘增加风险’而不是‘规避风险’的时候。”■

Ping An

2008-04-30T12:58:00.001+08:00

BROKER CALL - Ping An H-share target price raised to 88 hkd - Citigroup2008-4-30 12:21:00 p.m. HKT, XFNA

Citigroup raised its target price for the Hong Kong-listed H-shares of Ping An Insurance (Group) Co of China Ltd to 88 hkd from 78.50 and reiterated its "buy" call after the insurer reported better-than-expected first quarter results. "The strong earnings came from lower-than-expected policy liability costs due to superior product management strategy where Ping An has been avoiding bancassurance and reducing reliance on 'spread' income," the brokerage said. It also noted strong general cost controls by Ping An. Ping An's first quarter to March net profit rose 23.6 pct to 7.1 bln due to expansion in its insurance, banking and securities business lines. This was in stark contrast to China Life Insurance Co Ltd's more than 50 pct net profit decline in the same period. "The results continued to highlight the advantages of Ping An's unique diversified financial operating model," Citigroup said. It raised its 2008 and 2009 earnings forecasts for Ping An by 10 pct and 4 pct respectively. Amid the A-share market correction, Ping An's net asset value (NAV) fell by just 9 pct quarter-on-quarter, easing the fear that overall embedded value growth from new business will be wiped out by NAV losses due to falling A-share markets, Citigroup said. "Ping An remains our preferred pick in regional insurance space. We reiterate our view that Ping An's expanding agency force will continue to deliver strong new business value growth in 2008 while its focus on universal life and less reliance on bancassurance products will see less margin squeeze pressure when compared to its peers," Citigroup said. It forecasts over 30 pct new business value growth for Ping An in 2008.

China Power Producers....Tariff Hike??

2008-04-24T12:07:00.001+08:00

STOCK ALERT - China power firms surge in Hong Kong on tariff hike approval hopes2008-4-24 11:18:00 a.m. HKT, XFNA

China power producers were sharply higher on speculation that Beijing will eventually allow a tariff hike as most firms are struggling with cost pressures stemming from rising coal prices. At 10:46 am, Huaneng Power was up 0.45 hkd or 7.91 pct at 6.14, Datang Power was up 0.32 hkd or 6.3 pct at 5.4, Huadian Power was up 0.18 hkd or 7.76 pct at 2.5 and China Resources Power was up 1.56 pct at 9.27 pct at 18.38. Analysts said reasons for a tariff hike in China are compelling as electricity producers are facing a squeeze in profit margins as coal prices and other operating costs continue to rise. "Speculation on a stamp duty cut (on stock market transactions) in China has been circulating for weeks and it did come true. Rumors about a tariff hike might come true as well," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities. China yesterday announced a cut in stamp duty on stock market transactions to 0.1 pct from 0.3 pct, meeting market expectations. Electricity firms have been lobbying the government to make adjustments to retail guided prices of electric power, but their pleas have been ignored so far due to high inflation.

摩根大通认为投资中国股票时机已到-金融-《财经网》

2008-04-23T20:32:00.000+08:00

摩根大通认为投资中国股票时机已到-金融-《财经网》

Running Out of Planet to Exploit - New York Times

2008-04-23T19:49:00.000+08:00

Running Out of Planet to Exploit - New York Times

Guangshen Railway(525.HK)

2008-04-23T16:32:00.004+08:00

a bit late...but now is only HKD4.47. The result will be announced very soon. See u at HKD5.20!

STOCK ALERT- Guangshen Railway sharply higher on strong positive 2007 guidance 2008-1-21 10:55:00 a.m. HKT, XFNA

- HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Guangshen Railway Co Ltd was sharply higher after forecasting 100 pct net profit growth for 2007. At 10:39 am, shares of Guangshen Railway were trading up 0.28 hkd or 5.11 pct at 5.76, off a high of 5.83. Guangshen Rail said in a statement filed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange that its 2007 net profit is estimated to have risen about 100 pct, boosted by asset injections from its parent. The company posted a net profit of 710.87 mln yuan and earnings per share of 0.10 yuan in 2006.

China Agri (606.HK) TP:HKD 7

2008-04-23T11:52:00.002+08:00

China Agri-Industries target price raised to 7 hkd - Goldman Sachs2008-4-17 04:10:00 p.m. HKT, XFNA

Goldman Sachs has raised its target price on China Agri-Industries Holding Ltd (606.HK) to 7 hkd from 6.7 while maintaining its "buy" call on the mainland-based agricultural products producer, citing higher earnings forecasts. Goldman raised its 2008 and 2009 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the company by 20 pct and 16 pct, respectively, to 1.76 bln and 1.92 bln hkd, factoring in the expected recovery of unrealized losses and capacity expansion. Goldman noted that China Agri-Industries remained positive about its 2008 earnings as it has hedged the costs of its oilseed processing business. It also adopted a flexible subsidy mechanism to reduce margin volatility on its biofuel business, the brokerage said. Moreover, its new biofuel and biochem plants should contribute more to its earnings from 2008 while capacity expansion being extended to other divisions as well, Goldman said. China Agri-Industries reported yesterday that its 2007 net profit rose 46 pct year-on-year to 1.1 bln hkd, 7 pct below Goldman's estimate. However, the net profit included an unrealized loss of 381 mln hkd from hedging activities in its oilseed processing business. The company said it expects to fully recover the unrealized loss in the first half of this year. At 3.50 pm, shares of China Agri-Industries were trading up 0.15 hkd or 2.87 pct at 5.38.

Warren Buffet's words of wisdom...

2008-04-21T15:33:00.007+08:00

●華倫．巴菲特描述自己的投資方針是「簡單、傳統、不多樣」。
●被網路公司引誘的投資人就好像參加舞會的灰姑娘一樣，沒有在午夜的期限之前趕緊離開，結果漂亮的馬車又變回南瓜。不過最大的問題在於，這場舞會上的時鐘並沒有指針。
●對於購併的對象，我們偏愛那些會「產生現金」而非「消化現金」的公司。
●我不認為包含我自己本身在內能夠「成功」地預測股市短期間的波動。
●與這群「樂在其中」並以像老板一樣心態經營公司的專業經理人在一起工作真是一種享受。
●我非常熱愛我的工作，每天早上去上班時，都會覺得自己好像是要到西斯汀教堂作壁畫一樣。（註：米開爾基羅名畫「最後的審判」完成處）
●我們的集團總部佔地僅1,500平方呎（約合42坪左右）總共只有十二人，剛好可以組一隻籃球隊。
●依我們過去的經驗顯示，要「找到」一家好的保險公司並不容易，但要「創立」一家更難。
●依我們過去的經驗顯示，從公開市場所買進部份股權的價格遠比整筆購併所談的價格要低的許多。
●會計報表只是評估企業價值的起點，而非最終的結果。
●經理人在思索會計原則時，一定要謹記林肯總統本身最常講的一句俚語：「如果一隻狗連尾巴也算在內的話，總共有幾條腿？答案還是四條腿，因為不論你是不是把尾巴當作是一條腿，尾巴永遠還是尾巴！」，這句話提醒經理人就算會計師願意幫你證明尾巴也算是一條腿，你也不會因此多了一條腿。
●所謂「市場效率學說」之類的投資教條，不過是為了增加投資的神祕性，好讓投資顧問得以從中牟利罷了。
●「不要把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡」的謬論是錯誤的，投資應該像馬克．吐溫建議的「把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡，然後小心地看好它。」
●企業主須了解其利益，乃來自於企業內在價值（Intrinsic Value）的成長，而不是其持有股票之短期波動。
●如何去維護股東最大的權益，不僅是監督一家企業最重要的項目，也是一個理想的管理團隊首要之考量。
●巴菲特說︰「波克夏有兩種低成本且無風險的資金來源︰應付所得稅與保險浮存金。」
●若歷史資料是致富之鑰的話，那麼富比士四百大富豪將會有一大堆圖書館員。
●巴菲特說︰「買下波克夏紡織廠是他畢生投資所犯的第一個錯誤。」
●談到對於吉列刮鬍刀持股的看法，巴菲特說他每晚都能安然入睡，只要想到隔天早上會有二十五億的男性要刮鬍子。
●巴菲特說︰「喜斯糖果會讓吉列公司旗下的歐樂B牙刷銷路更好。」
●孟格說︰「喜斯糖果是我們頭一次為品牌付出代價。」巴菲特說︰「若沒有買下喜斯糖果，就不會有之後的可口可樂投資。」
●巴菲特他自己報稅，自稱是電腦文盲，雖然他比惟一比他富有的比爾蓋茲結為摯友。
●對於高科技股巴菲特敬謝不敏，他說：「對於高科技產業我們並不具備獨到眼光能洞悉何者能具有長久的競爭優勢，所以我們寧願選擇我們所懂的。」
●自1965年入主波克夏以來，除了曾與他的妻子聯合捐贈二千五百股（現在價值一億四千五百萬美元）給四家慈善機構外，巴菲特從未將其持股出售過。
●巴菲特表示在他與其妻子死後，將會把他們大部份的財產捐給巴菲特基金會。
●為平息外界對其繼任人選的猜測，巴菲特首度指出蓋可保險公司的路易士．辛普生將會在他死後接替他與長期合夥人查理孟格，執掌波克夏公司。
●我們從不，也沒有，也不會對未來一年內的股市、利率或產業環境有任何看法。

●我們從未想到要預估股市未來的走勢。
●短期股市的預測是毒藥，應該要把他們擺在最安全的地方，遠離兒童以及那些在股市中的行為像小孩般幼稚的投資人。
●有人問巴菲特預計什麼時後要退休，他回答：「大約在我死後五到十年左右」。
●有人問巴菲特死後，其所投資的公司會有什麼影響，他回答：「可口可樂短期間的銷售量可能會爆增，因為我打算在陪藏的飛機裏塞滿可口可樂」。
●巴菲特說︰「有生之年我都會繼續經營波克夏，之後我可能會透過降神會工作。」

●在購併General RE公司後，賣掉其所持有獲利不菲價值四十六億美金的美國零息公債後，債券仍持續大漲時，巴菲特淡淡地表示：「我們投入的早，不過賣得更早了一點」。
●儘管我們的組織登記為公司，但我們是以合夥的心態來經營。
●巴菲特說︰「一般共同基金的管理費用是百分之一點二五，我們則只有萬分之五。」
●我們自給自足。
●以GEICO這個case，乃至於我們所有的投資，我們看得是公司本質的表現而非其股價的表現，如果我們對公司的看法正確，市場終將還它一個公道。
●Phil Graham在擔任華盛頓郵報的發行人時曾說：「新聞日報是攥寫歷史的第一手草稿」，而很不幸的，產險業者所提供的年度財務報告，也可稱得上是該公司年度財務與經營狀況的第一手草稿。
●在購併國際乳品公司時巴菲特說到：「我們把錢擺在吃得到的地方」。
●在1996年的公司年報中，巴菲特說自己正在研究可口可樂公司100年前的年報（1896年），而那時可口可樂剛問世約10年。當時的總裁坎德勒說道︰「大約從今年3月1日開始……我們雇佣了10名與辦公室有系統聯系的旅行銷售員，這樣我們就幾乎覆蓋了整個合眾國的領土。」雖然那一年可口可樂的銷售額才14.8萬美元，而1996年已高達大約32億美元，但巴菲特對當時領導人的雄心與努力仍是贊嘆不已。

●巴菲特曾說過一個故事︰他的朋友在看到他的一次重大投資失誤後，問巴菲特︰「雖然你很富有，為什麼這麼笨呢？」
●巴菲特表示，「除非有足夠的補償，否則查理（Charlie Munger，巴菲特倚重的左右手）和我即使連最小的風險都不願承受。活到現在，我們所承受過的最大風險，是吃下過期一天的乳酪。」
●巴菲特在1985年結束波克夏紡織部門營運時，曾解釋道︰「我們不會因為想要將企業的獲利數字增加一個百分點，便結束比較不賺錢的事業，但同時我們也覺得只因公司非常賺錢便無條件去支持一項完全不具前景的投資的作法不太妥當，亞當史密斯一定不贊同我第一項的看法，而卡爾馬克斯卻又會反對我第二項見解，而採行中庸之道是惟一能讓我感到安心的作法。」
●巴菲特在1985年結束波克夏紡織部門營運時，又解釋道︰「一隻能數到十的馬是隻了不起的馬，卻不是了不起的數學家，同樣的一家能夠合理運用資金的紡織公司是一家了不起的紡織公司，但卻不是什麼了不起的企業。」
●巴菲特說︰「在波克夏我們不用去告訴一個打擊率四成的選手如何揮棒。」

●1950年代巴菲特花了一百五十元去上卡內基課程，他說這麼做「不是為了讓我在演講時膝蓋不會發抖，而是要學會如何在膝蓋發抖時，還能繼續演講。」
●巴菲特說在他四十多年的投資生衙中，只有靠十二個投資決策，造就他今日與眾不同的地位。
●許多人盲目投資，從某方面來說等於是通宵玩牌，但卻從未曾看清楚自己手中的牌。
●對於波克夏惟一的奢侈品～個人專機無議號，巴菲特說︰「只要我一死，波克夏的帳面盈餘立刻可增加一百萬，因為查理無視於我希望與之同葬的心願，隔天一定馬上把飛機處份掉。」
●巴菲特︰「我身上流有百分之十五費雪與百分之八十五葛拉漢的血液。」他本身的投資策略係結合兩者之所長，對企業與其經營特質作深入研究，係學自費雪；對於價格與數量上的概念，則源自於葛拉漢。
●巴菲特將恩師葛拉漢「以低價買進某公司股票，待公司有轉機後在高價賣出的方法」稱之為「煙屁股投資法」。
●巴菲特說︰「當我拾起葛拉漢的證券分析，在閱讀的過程中我好像看到了光明。在所有討論投資的書籍當中，這無疑是最好的一本」
●巴菲特說︰「看過葛拉漢的智慧型股票投資人（註：證券分析的普級版）所得到的啟示，就好像是聖保祿走到大馬士革所經歷的一樣。」
●巴菲特說︰「其恩師葛拉漢在聰明的投資人一書的結語～最聰明的投資方式就是把自己當成公司的老闆，這句話是有史以來有關於投資理財最重要的一句話。」
●巴菲特說︰「因為我把自己當成是企業的經營者，所以我成為更優秀的投資人；而因為我把自己當成是投資人，所以我成為更優秀的企業經營者。」
●葛拉漢︰「投資人只應該買進股價低於淨值三分之二的股票。」
●葛拉漢︰「你付出的是價格，得到的是價值。」
●巴菲特︰　「恩師葛拉漢曾說︰短期來看市場是個投票機器，但長期來看則是個體重計。」
●巴菲特︰「我從恩師葛拉漢那裏學到一個終身難忘的忠告，他說並不是因為別人同意你的看法，就代表你一定是對的，而是當你根據正確的事實作正確的判斷時，你才是對的，這是你惟一站在對的一方的理由。」
●巴菲特用心學習葛拉漢．紐曼公司的套利密訣，然後加以發揚光大。
●巴菲特︰「葛拉漢是有史以來最偉大的財務學老師，由於他不吝於分享個人的聰明才智，而使我獲益匪淺，所以我也相信應當把他傳授給我的知識傳承下去，即使這樣可能會使波克夏產生許多潛在的競爭對手。」
●巴菲特︰「我何其有幸能夠看到葛拉漢與費雪兩人偉大的著作，他們在沒有任何的經濟誘因下，將思想記錄下來，如果當初我沒有讀過費雪的作品，就不可能有今天的財富，幾十年前我只花幾塊錢就能買到他的書，現在如果用複利計算這項投資其獲利率不知凡幾。」
●巴菲特說︰「葛拉漢與我的投資觀念不大一樣，他不想花太多的時間去做企業分析。」
●巴菲特說︰「在他一生中對他影響最大的三個人分別是他父親、恩師葛拉漢與同事兼好友查理孟格。」
●巴菲特說︰「創造營業收益所需的時間，通常不大可能與行星繞太陽一週的時間相吻合。」
●對於購併所需資金，波克夏隨時作好萬全準備，巴菲特說︰「如果你想要打中罕見且移動迅速的大象，那麼你應該隨時把槍帶在身上。」
●巴菲特說︰「股市與上帝一樣，會幫助那些自助者，但與上帝不同的是，祂不會原諒那些不知道自己在作什麼的人。」
●巴菲特說︰　　「一份強勢報紙的經濟實力是無與倫比的，也是世上最強勢的經濟力量之一。」；「一家典型的報社可將旗下發行報紙售價調高一倍，而仍保有百分之九十的讀者。」
●在成功撮合首都公司與ABC合併後，巴菲特說︰「我擔心恩師葛拉漢會從棺材裏爬出來為我這一投資計劃喝采。」
●對於好友ABC湯姆墨菲，巴菲特稱讚到︰「湯姆墨菲不但是偉大的管理者，也是那種你會希望將自己女兒嫁給他的人。」
●1986年巴菲特正式宣佈櫻桃可口可樂為波克夏股東年會的指定飲料。
●巴菲特說︰「所謂的消費者特許權是指大家偏愛而願意付額外的代價購買某個牌子的產品。」
●巴菲特說︰「如果你給我一千億美金要我把可口可樂打倒，即使我的心可能會很痛，我還是會將錢原封不動的退還。」
●巴菲特說︰「可口可樂與吉列刮鬍刀是世界上最好的兩家公司。」
●對於所羅門出事的看法，巴菲特說︰「評估一個人時，你必須看準其三項特質：正直、智力與活力，若缺乏第一項，後面兩項可能會把你害慘。」
●一位哥倫比亞大學的學生問到巴菲特關於投資美國航空的原因，他說︰「對啊!我的心理醫生也問我相同的問題。」
●對於聯邦住宅抵押貸款公司佛萊迪麥克（Freddie Mac）的看法，巴菲特說︰「雙獨佔僅次於壟斷。」
●巴菲特說︰「你能對一條魚解釋在陸上行走的滋味嗎？在陸地上生活一天的真實感覺，勝過以言語解釋它一千年，而實地親身去經營企業也是如此。」
●巴菲特說︰「我和我喜歡的人一起工作，世界上沒有任何一種工作比經營波克夏更有趣。」
●巴菲特說︰「人們習慣把每天短線進出股市的投機客稱之為投資人，就好像大家把不斷發生一夜情的愛情騙子當成浪漫情人一樣。」
●當1988年波克夏股票在紐約證券交易所掛牌上市時，巴菲特半開玩笑地對經紀商說︰「假如你從今天起在兩年內能成交一筆波克夏的股票，你就算是成功了。」
●巴菲特說︰「所謂擁有特許權的事業，是指那些可以輕易提高價格，且只需額外多投入一些資金，便可增加銷售量與市場佔有率的企業。」
●巴菲特說︰「香煙是一個相當理想的行業，製造成本只要一分錢，但售價卻高達一塊錢，消費者會上癮，而且忠誠度非常的高。」
●巴菲特說︰「有的企業有高聳的護城河，裏頭還有兇猛的鱷魚、海盜與鯊魚守護著，這才是你應該投資的公司。」
●巴菲特說︰「信譽可能需要花一輩子的時間才能建立，但只要五分鐘便足以摧毀之。」
●對於員工認股選擇權的浮爛，巴菲特相當不能認同，他說︰「如果選擇權不是對員工的一種報酬，那它算是什麼？如果報酬不算是一種費用，那它又是什麼？如果費用不列入損益表中，那它又應該擺在那裏？」
●有人質疑巴菲特的投資策略只是運氣好而已，他講了一個有關*機率*的故事回答它們︰「一群豬共有128000隻，分別來自全世界各農場舉行丟銅板比賽，投出正面的晉級，投出反面的淘汰，經過九回合後，只剩下250隻豬晉級，有人認為那250隻豬只是運氣好而已」巴菲特接著又說︰「如果你發現晉級的250隻豬有200隻全是某農場來的，那你就必須問︰那個農場餵豬的飼料有沒有特別之處？」
●對於完全市場效率學說巴菲特完全不能認同，他反而感謝那些相信這種鬼話的機構投資人，讓他能夠佔儘便宜，他說︰「我們實在欠提出這種理論的學者太多了，就好比當我們在參加橋牌、西洋棋或是選股等鬥智的競賽中，對手卻被教練告知思考是白費力氣的一件事。」
●微軟總裁比爾蓋茲說︰「基本上我也是一個巴菲特迷。」
●巴菲特︰「若讓微軟總裁比爾蓋茲去賣熱狗，他一樣可以成為熱狗王。」
●被問到對他的好友微軟總裁比爾蓋茲的看法時，巴菲特說︰「我不夠資格去評判他的技術能力，但我認為他的商業頭腦非凡，如果讓比爾蓋茲去賣熱狗，他一樣可以變成世界級的熱狗王。」
●巴菲特說︰「比爾蓋茲是我的好朋友，他可能是世界上最聰明的人，至於那小東西（指電腦）是做什麼用的我一點也不清楚。」
●巴菲特說︰「沒有公式能判定股票的真正價值，唯一方法是徹底了解這家公司。」

●巴菲特說︰「你應該選擇投資一些連笨蛋都會經營的企業，因為總有一天這些企業會落入笨蛋的手中。」
●巴菲特說︰「若你不打算持有一支股票達十年以上，那麼你當初根本就不要買進。」
●巴菲特說︰「買股票時，應該假設明天開始股市要休市３～５年。」
●巴菲特說︰「沒有公式能判定股票的真正價值，唯一方法是徹底了解這家公司。」
●巴菲特說︰「風險是來自於你不知道你在做什麼。」
●巴菲特說︰「只有退潮時，你才知道誰是在光著身子游泳。」
●巴菲特對子女們說︰「想過超級富翁的生活，別指望你老爸。」
●巴菲特說︰「就算是傑西歐文斯的小孩要參加百公尺賽跑，也不能享受從五十公尺線起跑的待遇。」
●巴菲特反對取消遺產稅，他說︰「那就像是挑選二○○○年奧運會金牌得主的長子來組成二○二○年參賽隊伍一樣。」
●巴菲特說︰「想要在股市從事波段操作是神做的事，不是人做的事。」
●巴菲特說︰「我從十一歲開始就在作資金分配這個工作，一直到現在都是如此。」
●巴菲特說︰「波克夏就像是商業界的大都會美術館，我們偏愛收集當代最偉大的企業。」
●巴菲特說︰「四十五年前我看到機會卻沒什麼錢，四十五年後我有錢卻找不到機會。」
●巴菲特說︰「不投資科技股絕對不是迷信不迷信的問題。」
●巴菲特說︰「我們充份了解科技為整個社會所帶來的便利與改變，只是沒有人能預測往後十年這些科技公司會變怎樣，我常跟比爾蓋茲及安迪葛洛夫在一起，他們也不敢保證。」
●巴菲特說︰「我對總體經濟一竅不通，匯率與利率根本無法預測，好在我在作分析與選擇投資標的時根本不去理會它。」
●巴菲特說︰「我想我不會投資黃金，因為我看不出將這種金屬從南非的地底挖出，再把它放到福克斯堡的金庫中有何意義。」
●巴菲特說︰「利率就像是投資上的地心引力一樣。」
●巴菲特說︰「我們偏愛的持股期限是永遠。」
●巴菲特說︰「若有人跟你談諸如Beta等市場效率理論的東西時，趕快閃人。」
●巴菲特說︰「投資的密訣在於，看到別人貪心時要感到害怕，看到別人害怕時要變得貪心。」
●巴菲特說︰「基本上，我之所以加入民主黨是因為當初我覺得民主黨的民權政策與我的觀念較接近。」
●巴菲特說︰「我對一切與數字與金錢有關的事物都非常著迷。」
●巴菲特說︰「葛拉漢教我投資低價股，是孟格幫助我修正這路線，這是他對我最大的影響。」
●查理孟格說︰「我一直以富蘭克林作為我生活的典範，他四十二歲辭掉工作，專心做一位作家、國會議員、人道主義者、投資人與科學家。這是為什摸我要培養企業以外興趣的原因」
●查理孟格說︰「網路與科技為整個社會所帶來的利與弊，就好像是葡萄乾跟狗屎一樣，不過兩者混在一起後，還是一堆狗屎。」
●查理孟格說︰「對整個社會來說，網路或許不錯，但對資本家而言，卻絕對是個負數，因為雖然網路能增加企業的效率，但對獲利卻一點幫助有沒有。」
●查理孟格說︰「波克夏的企業作風是相當老式保守的，大概跟富蘭克林或卡內基差不多，難道你認為卡內基有可能會請顧問來教他如何作生意嗎？我們旗下的企業文化也大多是如此。」
●查理孟格說︰「我實在不曉得微軟到底犯了什麼罪，若微軟真的有罪，那波克夏旗下的企業應該學學如何去犯這種罪。」
●巴菲特說︰「垃圾債券總有一天會變成名符其實的垃圾。」
●巴菲特反對股票分割配股，他甚至半開玩笑地在朋友的生日賀卡上寫到「祝你活到波克夏分割股票之時。」
●巴菲特推許奧美廣告創辦人的管理哲學～　「如果我們雇用一堆比我們矮小的人，那麼我們會變成一堆侏儒，　但相反地若我們雇用一堆比我們高大的人，那麼我們終將變成一群巨人」巴菲特小故事...
●巴菲特說︰「我對1929年的股市大崩盤感受特別深刻，當時我父親是個股票營業員，為了躲避慘遭套牢的客戶，只好整天窩在家裏，而你知道那時電視還不是那麼地普及，所以…嗯…我母親大概就是那時後懷了我，大約九個月後，我於1930年的八月三十聒聒落地。」外界評語...
●浮華世界（Vanity Fair）︰「他最重要的工作就是管理他對別人的影響。」
●錢雜誌（Money）︰「如果波克夏除非由上帝所經營的，這樣它的高股價才合理。」

●史坦普（S & P）︰「波克夏是二十世紀最典型的投資成功故事。」
●一位巴菲特當年的合夥人︰「你得從他家後門進去，穿越廚房、客廳，然後上樓到他的臥室去找他。」
●查理孟格︰「巴菲特的頭腦是個超級理性的機制，你簡直就像能親眼看到他的大腦運作一樣。」
●查理孟格︰「這麼多年來我閱人無數，巴菲特可以說是所有人當中改變最少的一個。」
●巴菲特是哥倫比亞商學系有史以來成績最好的學生，葛拉漢最得意的門生。他的數學能力很強，而了解經濟價值的能力則是他的天賦。
●當初拒絕投資巴菲特的可口可樂前總裁奇歐︰「從那時起我們便開始後悔不已，若當初把那麼一點點錢交給他，說不定現在我已經擁有一所大學了。」
●巴菲特的女兒小蘇珊︰「小時後我不太曉得父親到底在做什麼，同學問我時我就說是證券分析師，很多人以為那是檢查警報安全系統之類的工作。」
●華盛頓郵報發行人葛蘭姆女士︰「他極端節儉，有一次在機場，我向他借十美分要打電話，沒想到他竟要拿著一枚二十五分的硬幣到遠處去兌換。」「有一次他請人要我把借我一本葛拉漢的書趕快還給他，因為書是從奧瑪哈的公立圖書館借來的，逾期會被罰款。」
●雖然許多人包括華爾街人士，都密切注意巴菲特的一舉一動，但他自己卻謙遜地說︰「我曾刻意地注意自己的”一舉一動”，不過實在是不怎麼樣。」
●微軟比爾蓋茲有一次被問到「除了微軟以外，你最欣賞的ＣＥＯ是誰？」蓋茲回答︰「巴菲特。這傢伙擅於思考。我喜歡會思考的人。他們絕不落於傳統智慧的俗套。」

●微軟比爾蓋茲說︰「他在撰寫擁抱未來（The Road Ahead）這本書時，就是把巴菲特這種不懂高科技的人當作心目中的讀者。」
●微軟比爾蓋茲說︰「以投資智慧聞名的巴菲特是我的好朋友，一直以來我都想如何教他使用電腦，我甚至跟他說只要他願意，我可以飛到他那裏去教他基本的入門，直到有一天他發現可以透過電腦連線與世界各地的橋牌愛好者一起打牌，情況才略有改觀。」
●微軟比爾蓋茲說︰「最近我們倆人一起帶著太太到中國大陸旅行，我覺得他說的笑話都非常有趣，他酷愛漢堡和可樂，總之我是個巴菲特迷。」
●波克夏副總裁高德保說︰「他實在聰明的不得了，反應快的驚人，跟在他身邊的人都有很大的精神壓力，想要努力趕上他思考的速度，在總部工作的人必須要有很強的自信心才得以存活。」
●巴菲特說︰「一個人的壽命長短與他父母的年齡非常有關，而我一直很注意我母親的飲食與運動習慣，她的運動腳踏車已跑了四萬英哩。」
●巴菲特的太太蘇珊說︰「巴菲特的血管裏流的不是血而是可樂，他連早餐都喝可樂。」
●巴菲特說︰「有一回他到比爾蓋茲家打橋牌，一連打了七個多小時，直到宴會開始賓客都已經在外面等了，蓋茲還欲罷不能。」
●巴菲特說︰「橋牌是最好的腦力運動，你每十分鐘就會看到新局面，在股市同樣是運用理性來作決定，橋牌就是一種權衡盈虧比率的遊戲。」
●巴菲特到紐約時喜歡與華盛頓郵報發行人葛蘭姆等三、五好友一起打一整夜的橋牌，吃花生、冰淇淋與火腿三明治，這是巴菲特到大蘋果時，最理想的紐約之夜。
●有一回巴菲特在地上看到一毛錢，他彎下腰拾起這枚硬幣，當時所有在場的人都驚訝不已，只見他說︰「這是另一個十億美元的開始。」
●有一回巴菲特與美國總統柯林頓進行私人性質的午餐，巴菲特建議柯林頓提高稅賦，控制花費是降低預算赤字的不二法門。
●水牛城新聞發行人利普席說︰「我們沒有所謂的預算，我們隨時隨地無不謹慎花用，因此也節省了製作預算所須耗費的大量開銷與時間，這種觀念在波克夏所屬企業是司空見慣的事。」
●某一年的聖誕節當巴菲特來到波爾仙珠寶店選購禮物時，珠寶店老闆耶魯大叫︰「不要把那戒指賣給巴菲特，把整間店賣給他。」
●蓋可保險前ＣＥＯ拜恩說︰「從某個角度來說，蓋可造就了巴菲特的金融事業。」

●富比士雜誌發行人富比士說︰「所羅門如果沒有巴菲特的拔刀相助，一定會落得萬劫不復，無疑的是巴菲特拯就了所羅門。」假如仔細留意巴菲特所說的話，也許未必能完全跟他一樣，但至少可以增長智慧，藉此我們或許可以成為一個更機伶、更沉穩的投資者。

CHINA Will be # 1 by 2017

2008-04-21T10:47:00.004+08:00

China will return to the top, as #1 economy by 2017. On what basis will China return to the top? Not by the misleading per capita income, but by PPP adjusted for existing balance sheet and income statement basis, which better reflects the true health of an economy. I’m pleasantly surprised others mentioned PPP. Usually, the people talking economic will use GDP per capita as their best and only argument, like that covers everything. But GDP per capita leaves out many very important details, that are salient to calculating the real economic healthy of a country. Don’t confuse the size of an economy with the health of an economy. The most often quoted number is $35,000 per capita income in US. That sounds great if that is the only information you know. But once you factor in the debts of $8.4 trillion, unfunded liabilities between $45-$70 trillion, and the current population of US at about 300 million, the per capita debts is between $178,000 to $261,000 per US person, making the $35,000 income per capita look like chump change. Some people don’t know the debt numbers so they gain false solace thinking everything is great. Some other people know the debt numbers but ignore it, since truth isn’t what they want to present. USA has an illusion of wealth built largely on debt, from government, private sector, business sector, consumer credit, mortgages, etc. But Central Bankers around the world are increasingly alarmed at these obscene debt ratios, and are beginning to slow down purchases of dollars, and rebalancing their portfolio away. Beyond GDP, a PPP adjustment improves the economic forecasting. Other factors to take into account are the balance sheet and income statement items, specifically, all outstanding forms of debts, and deficits. Since China has very low debts, and very high savings (about 45% of GDP), it has attracted many in the world to do business with it, since other countries can see domestic consumption by China, as a way to buttress their own economy. Focus only on GDP per capita income, is misleading, since the health of an economy is much more than just that. China accounted for almost 25% of the world’s economy in 1800’s, and was the number one world economy back then. History will repeat, as China will return to the top this century. China is already the second largest economy in terms of PPP. If you factor in real balance sheet and income statement items with PPP, China will be the number one economy around 2017, and perhaps even sooner. Why? US is stuck with huge and increasing debts, as a result of fiscal and monetary irresponsibility by the government, and stuck with higher cost post 9/11 to cope with terrorism and homeland security. When Bush took office, the national debts were about $6 trillion. It’s now currently about $8.4 trillion, and at current deficits, it will be $9 trillion by the end of this year. This doesn’t even including the off balance sheet, as additional cost for the war on terror. The projected cost for just the unfunded liabilities from Social Security and Medicare, is estimated at $45-$70 trillion dollars (Range has to do with actuarial assumptions and whether the baby boomers will all live to, or beyond their actuarial life. This is possible since medical science is improving life expectancy). In summary: Some economist project China becoming the number one economy by 2017, not on a misleading per capita basis, but on a more accurate PPP with balance sheet and income statement basis, since GDP doesn’t pay the bills, revenues do. PPP, balance sheet, and income statement are better as it reflects revenues and expense, liabilities and assets. When you factor in these items, 2017 is not only possible, but as US debts continue to skyrocket, economist should revisit the 2017 projection, and revise it to reflect the additional cost post 9/11. ( ChinaDaily)

CNOOC,SINOPEC and PETROCHINA..

2008-04-18T14:55:00.002+08:00

PetroChina H-shares fall on cloudy earnings outlook2008-4-18

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - PetroChina's H-shares in Hong Kong were sharply lower as its A-shares in Shanghai fell below its initial public offering price of 16.70 yuan for the first time since its debut on the mainland bourse last October. Dealers said pressures on PetroChina's shares in the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets may continue in the near term as its earnings prospects this year are clouded by losses in its refining operations and a levy which it pays the government for its oil output. Pressures on its earnings are ongoing despite the continuing uptrend in crude oil prices. At 11.15 am, PetroChina's H-shares were trading down 0.16 hkd or 1.58 pct at 9.94, off a low of 9.84. The Hang Seng index was up 130.9 points or 0.54 pct at 24,389.86. At 10.11 am, PetroChina's A-shares were down 1.6 pct at 16.60 yuan. "PetroChina is the biggest component stock in Shanghai and it is among the first that is targeted by investors in the event of any general downtrend or uptrend in that market," said Gideon Lo, an analyst at DBS Vickers. "Its continuing weakness in Shanghai and underperformance in Hong Kong relative to CNOOC and Sinopec is due to a view that its earnings this year will come under significant pressures despite the fact that crude oil prices remain at high levels," he said. "Chinese government policies are largely being blamed for PetroChina's predicament. Unlike Sinopec, which has already been allocated a government subsidy of over 10 bln yuan for its oil refining losses, there are no signs as yet that PetroChina will receive similar assistance," he said. "PetroChina also hardly benefits from the prevailing high crude oil prices because it has to pay the government a levy of 40 pct if crude oil price is above 40 usd per barrel," he said. Lo said the Chinese government appears to have taken the view that PetroChina should be able to offset losses in its downstream operations from revenue that it generates from its upstream business. "CNOOC is a pure upstream play and it is expected to benefit the most from the crude oil uptrend. In the case of Sinopec, its oil refining losses are mitigated by substantial amounts of subsidy from the government," he said. "PetroChina is in a relatively poorer situation as it is largely left to fend for itself - that's why most fund managers like CNOOC and Sinopec (rather) than PetroChina in many instances," he said. Lo noted that PetroChina's A-share performance does not always have a direct correlation to its counterpart in Hong Kong. "But there are times, like today, when bearish sentiment towards PetroChina's A-shares can pull down its H-shares in Hong Kong," he said.

China Resources Power is "Top Pick" among..

2008-04-11T20:05:00.002+08:00

BROKER CALL - China Resources Power 'top pick' on cost controls -

Citigroup has selected Hong Kong-listed China Resources Power ("buy/low risk") as its "top pick" in the independent power producer segment as it is better able to control spiraling coal costs. The brokerage predicted in a note to investors that average net profits among Chinese independent power producers would fall by 38 pct year-on-year in 2008. It said that consensus earnings predictions for this year were "too optimistic" because they failed to fully account for coal price rises and also assumed that the government would step in and raise state-set power tariffs in the second half of the year. Results for the first quarter are also expected to lead to a period of instability among Chinese power stocks, and will probably lead to cuts in earnings forecasts, Citigroup said. Shanghai-listed Huadian Energy has already issued a profit warning for the first quarter because of rising coal prices, lower utilization rates and the government's refusal to raise tariffs, Citigroup said, and other companies in the sector are likely to follow suit. Citigroup has rated Huadian Energy's Hong Kong-listed sister company, Huadian Power International, at "sell" with a target price of 2.20 hkd. It closed trade today at 2.17 hkd. Its target price for China Resources Power stands at 23 hkd. The stock closed up 0.26 hkd or 1.53 pct at 17.24.

PetroChina cut to "SELL"TP HKD 9

2008-04-10T14:33:00.002+08:00

HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - Citigroup said Thursday it has cut its rating on PetroChina Co to "sell" from "hold" as it expects the oil producer to incur greater losses in its refining division given the high oil price environment. Citi reduced PetroChina's earnings per share estimate for 2008 by 15.4 percent and for 2009 by 5.5 percent. "While higher oil prices will drive higher E&P [exploration and production] division earnings, we expect this to be more than offset by higher losses in PetroChina's refining division," said Citi analyst Graham Cunningham in a note to investors. The brokerage also cut its target price on the stock to HK$9 from HK$10.26. Shares in PetroChina fell 2.7 percent to HK$9.98 in the morning session after international crude oil prices topped $112 per barrel for the first time last night. The Hong Kong-listed arm of China's biggest oil producer announced last month a lower-than-expected 2.4 percent increase in its 2007 earnings. PetroChina booked an operating loss of 20.7 billion yuan from its refining business because of the widening gap between global crude oil prices and the regulated prices of refined products in China. First-quarter earnings are also expected to disappoint due to high refining losses, said Cunningham. The breakeven point for PetroChina's refining segment is $66-$67 per barrel of oil. The company earlier said that for every $1 rise in the crude oil price above that breakeven point, PetroChina will suffer a full-year loss of 32.4 billion yuan from its refining segment. (not very convincing!!)

Worst is not over yet...

2008-04-09T18:51:00.000+08:00

HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - Hong Kong shares closed a skittish session lower on Wednesday after a slump in the mainland markets prompted investors to dump Chinese stocks in late trade, driving the key index below the 24,000-point level. The Hang Seng index finished down 327.12 points or 1.4 percent at 23,984.57. Turnover was $HK83.4 billion ($10.7 billion). The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 5.5 percent, with banks leading the rout amid worries over a possible new round of monetary tightening. Subscriptions for Jinduicheng Molybdenum's initial public offering also took away funds from the secondary market. Mainland insurers were among the major decliners in Hong Kong, with China Life Insurance Co down 3.7 percent at $HK 29 and Ping Ang down 3.9 percent at $63. Fresh worries over the global economy sparked by an IMF report on the widening credit crisis also weighed on local shares. On Tuesday the IMF said worldwide losses stemming from the subprime mortgage crisis could come in close to $1 trillion, much more than earlier projections, as the effects spread in the global economy. "The worst of the crisis is not yet over. It may last until the end of the year. Investors will go for cover and sell their holdings," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities. Oil refiner China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) tumbled 3.8 percent to HK$7.01. Oil prices rose toward $109 per barrel in Asian trade this morning before the release later Wednesday of the weekly report on U.S. energy stockpiles. Mainland offshore oil producer CNOOC slid 2.8 percent to HK$11.98. Market watchers believe oil industry fundamentals will not support the current high prices for crude. A correction in oil prices could trigger a slide in CNOOC's share price, which had risen sharply on record high crude prices. PetroChina was down 3.6 percent at HK$10.26. Shares in Hong Kong-based fashion retailer Esprit Holdings fell on worries over lower retail sales in Germany, its single biggest market. The stock was down 3.8 percent at HK$90.00. Cellphone carrier China Unicom lost 3.2 percent at HK$16.36. Air China fell 6.4 percent to HK$6.14 on reports that it will borrow 80 billion yuan from banks to boost its working capital and sell up to 400 million shares on the mainland to fund its aircraft acquisition. China's biggest international airline is expecting the number of passengers it carries to rise 15 percent this year to 40 million. China Coal Energy rose 1.4 percent to HK$15.04 before the company's announcement of its 2007 earnings later Wednesday. China's second-largest coal company is expected to report 86.4 percent growth in net profit to 5.91 billion yuan, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Metal stocks corrected after Tuesday's sharp rally. Gold Miner Zijin Mining tumbled 7 percent to HK$8 and Angang Steel slid 4 percent to HK$18.96. Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) fell 4 percent to HK$12.96.

SINOPEC's TP cut to HKD9.45

2008-04-08T17:40:00.000+08:00

News -- AASTOCKS.com

China Mobil is Top Pick...

2008-04-08T09:57:00.000+08:00

News -- AASTOCKS.com

China's power sector downgraded

2008-04-07T12:24:00.000+08:00

BROKER CALL - China's power sector downgraded on high costs - Goldman Sachs2008-4-7 11:53:00 a.m. HKT, XFNA

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Goldman Sachs downgraded the Chinese electric power sector to "cautious" from "neutral", saying that China's independent power producers are facing lower margins and increased costs. In a note to investors, the brokerage said that the "worst was yet to come", with shares expected to come under pressure when the companies' first quarter results are announced. China Resources Power (rated "buy") is in the strongest position because it has managed to control its costs more effectively, the note said. However, Huaneng has been put on Goldman Sachs' "sell conviction list" because the market has not fully priced in the company's growing coal costs, as well as its debt burden. Huadian has also been cut to "sell" from "neutral", while Datang has been downgraded to "neutral" from "buy". Overall, Goldman Sachs' 12-month target prices for the companies have been cut by up to 34 pct, and it estimates that earnings per share in 2008-9 will fall by up to 50 pct, again as a result of higher coal costs. The sector is facing growing coal costs -- China's power companies have already raised their estimate for 2008 unit coal price increases to 18 pct from 15 pct -- and any increase in electricity tariffs by government regulators is likely to be delayed until at least the second half of the year, Goldman Sachs said.

Dow Jone ups 391 pts, KLCI downs 11 pts..WHY???

2008-04-02T17:07:00.002+08:00

while all the other bourses performing well following the DJ , Malaysia KLCI down by 11 pts!! What an upset to Malaysians!

Major reason to the down fall of KLCI is due to the political turnmoil fueled by ex-PM TUN Mahatir. It seems like no body is qualified to be the PM except himself.

子曰 "不在其位，不谋其政"，meaning" if you are not holding the position , don't talk". Of course one cannot expect TUN M to understand the meaning. He simply the BEST!!!No other candidate can be better!

If this political scene prolongs, you can only expect the market to perform worse regardless how other markets perform. All the 9MP and Corridors are just an illusions or castle in the air! Nothing more than dreaming!

私募基金教父赵丹阳清盘离场 A股已找不到好股票?_财经_凤凰网

2008-02-12T19:46:00.000+08:00

私募基金教父赵丹阳清盘离场 A股已找不到好股票?_财经_凤凰网

Chinese new year chocolates

2008-02-09T18:43:00.001+08:00

阿思达克财经网-中国站-焦点新闻

2008-02-04T18:27:00.000+08:00

阿思达克财经网-中国站-焦点新闻

南华早报：股市暴跌预示的不是亚洲危机_财经_凤凰网

2008-01-31T18:57:00.000+08:00

南华早报：股市暴跌预示的不是亚洲危机_财经_凤凰网

华尔街奇才扫荡美国楼市次贷危机中赚上百亿_财经_凤凰网

2008-01-31T18:34:00.000+08:00

华尔街奇才扫荡美国楼市次贷危机中赚上百亿_财经_凤凰网

HK Great Wall at 20800 and 18600...

2008-01-24T16:32:00.000+08:00

HEar no Evil, See no Evil and Wait no Evil! Dare your heart and buy when HSI drops to 20800, if this level broken, wait until below 19000, strong support at 18600!
Opinion is the cheapest commodity in the world, hear no evil!

Any Taker??

2008-01-16T11:53:00.000+08:00

HSI has droped to a tit below 25,000 pts. Time to bottom fish! Not more than 20% of your potential portfolio.
Looks attractive to buy SINOPEC (0386.HK) at 200 days moving average. Fundamentally sound with technical rebound is imminent. Remember to take profit at HKD11.00!

**For those with brave heart only!**

New listing: BURSA-CJ, GENTING-CJ, CNOOC-C3, WILMAR-C1

2008-01-15T00:47:00.000+08:00

Correction: It's CNOOC-C4 (0512C4), not C3.

New listing: MISC-CE, GAMUDA-CE, KLK-CF, HSBC-C4, PETROCH-C6

2007-12-27T01:25:00.000+08:00

Be Patient, No Hurry !!!

2007-12-13T18:42:00.000+08:00

The market has came down after 25 basis pts rate cut in US. The fact is "sell on news is always right" regardless the outcome of the FOMC meeting.

Market will consolidate for another 2 weeks with high posibilities of HSI re-test the previous low of 25861 level.

Bottom fish when the HSI below 26500. Watch out for China Railway(0390.HK) below8.20 , Sinopec(0386.HK) at about 10.30, and CNOOC(0883.HK) at about 12.20.

Patient and holding power are the key factors to survive in this type of market. Don't forget to do your own study!

New listing: MAYBANK-CG, DIGI-CW, KLCI-CD, HSI-C4, CHEUNGK-C2

2007-12-13T01:00:00.000+08:00

New listing: CHOLAND-C1, PINGAN-C1, APPLE-C1, EXMOBIL-C1

2007-12-11T01:23:00.001+08:00

CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LTD (0688)

Principally engaged in property development and investment, infrastructure project investments, generation and supply of heat and electricity, real estate agency and management, and treasury operations.
CHOLAND-C1 issued @ RM0.07; underlying share @ HKD17.30; premium 10.34%

PING AN INSURANCE CO. (2318)

Its business scope includes investing in insurance enterprises, supervising and managing various domestic and overseas businesses of subsidiaries, and utilizing insurance funds; provision of life insurance, property and casualty insurance, banking and other financial services.

PINGAN-C1 issued @ RM0.09; underlying share @ HKD89.00; premium 5.80%

EXXON MOBIL CORP. (XOM)
EXMOBIL-C1 issued @ RM0.09; underlying share currently trading around USD89;

premium 8.22%

APPLE INC. (AAPL)
APPLE-C1 issued @ RM0.11; underlying share currently trading around USD195;

premium 8.35%

Time to SELL!

2007-12-07T14:59:00.000+08:00

What are we waiting for when HSI touched 30,000 pts?? Great opportunities to take profit!!

Buy on rumors and sell on news! Whatever FOMC meeting's outcome is to mitigate the problems. Problems are still exist. The only remedy is the time. It needs time to recover from the severe sickness which is SUBPRIME!

New listing: BJTOTO-CC, GENTING-CI, IOICORP-CF, BOCOM-C1, SINOPEC-C3

2007-12-03T02:05:00.000+08:00

New listing: CHCOAL-C1, ICBC-C5, PETROCH-C5, SINOPEC-C2

2007-11-28T01:38:00.000+08:00

CHINA COAL (1898)
CHCOAL-C1 issued @ RM0.07; underlying share @ HKD21.90; premium 15.26%

ICBC (1398)
ICBC-C5 issued @ RM0.06; underlying share @ HKD6.03; premium 21.61%

PETROCHINA (0857)

PETROCH-C5 issued @ RM0.08; underlying share @ HKD14.66; premium 21.68%

SINOPEC CORP (0386)

SINOPEC-C2 issued @ RM0.09; underlying share @ HKD11.02; premium 11.84%

All four call warrants are anticipated to move to a premium of more than 30% (please refer to the tables for the cw prices). With Dow Jones currently surging up high, tomorrow will be a great day for these new listings. Issued with cheap pricing and low exercise prices, these call warrants are highly suitable for investors to buy and hold.

New listing: BURSA-CH, TM-CG, CCCC-C5, TOYOTA-C1

2007-11-27T01:31:00.000+08:00

BURSA (1818)
BURSA-CH issued @ RM0.62; underlying share @ RM13.40; premium 34.18%

TM (4863)
TM-CG issued @ RM0.28; underlying share @ RM10.60; premium 12.26%

CCCC (1800)
CCCC-C5 issued @ RM0.45; underlying share @ HKD21.25; premium 22.43%

TOYOTA (7203)
TOYOTA-C1 issued @ RM0.46; underlying share @ JPY5990.00; premium 14.01%

Time to Bottom Fish !!!!!!

2007-11-23T15:02:00.001+08:00

The 3 levels to watch out for:
A: 26700++
B: 24900++ (to cover the gap)
C: 23500++ (very strong support level)

New listing: KLK-CE, MISC-CD, HSBC-C3, HWL-C3

2007-11-18T23:55:00.000+08:00

KLK (2445)
KLK-CE issued @ RM0.57; underlying share @ RM16.60; premium 7.53%

MISC (3816)
MISC-CD issued @ RM0.28; underlying share @ RM9.70; premium 14.64%

HSBC (0005.HK)
HSBC-C3 issued @ RM0.62; underlying share @ RM136.20; premium 22.72%

HWL (0013.HK)
HWL-C3 issued @ RM0.62; underlying share @ RM88.15; premium 22.69%

New listing: CHMOBIL-C6, CHMOLY-C1, GOOGLE-C1

2007-11-14T01:19:00.000+08:00

CHINA MOBILE (0941)
CHMOBIL-C6 @ RM0.14; underlying share @ HKD128.90; premium 45.51%

CHINA MOLYBDENUM (3993)
China Molybdenum Co. Ltd (CMOC) is a leading producer of molybdenum with world-class integrated mining and processing facilities.
Molybdenum, in pure metal form, is silvery white and very hard. Its ability to withstand extreme temperatures make it useful in applications that involve intense heat including aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motors and filaments. Owing to its high corrosion resistance
and weld ability, molybdenum is also used as an alloying agent in stainless steels, tool steels, cast irons and super alloys.
CMOC's primary business operations involve molybdenum mining flotation roasting and smelting and downstream processing. Besides that, the group is also a growing producer of tungsten products.
CHMOLY-C1 @ RM0.10; underlying share @ HKD16.56; premium 48.86%

GOOGLE (GOOG)
GOOGLE-C1 @ RM0.11; underlying share is currently trading around USD655.00; premium 18.90%

With the current high level of premium for the c.warrants above, I doubt the prices would move any much higher. Nevertheless, its cheap pricing might attract traders/investors to buy these warrants. Anyway even ZIJIN-C1 is currently having a 65% premium.

As for the Google cw, some may think its conversion ratio of 3000 to 1 may be a little too much to take. Now, let's take a closer look. Theoretically, a one cent gain on GOOGLE-C1 is reflected by a 10 dollar gain in the underlying share price; and that's only a 1.5% increase in price which would not be that hard to be accomplished by a 650 US dollar stock. In addition, investors are only paying a mere RM0.11 to grab hold on one of US's best technology company which may cost up to RM2171.00 (UDS650) for the underlying share. As you can see, its not that bad after all.
To wrap things upa little, all the 3 CWs could be trading in a range close to their issue prices since the US market is currently on the rise (up >150 points). It would be best to take profit (hopefully there is some), since the market condition is still uncertain.

New listing: PBBANK-CE, YTL-CE, HSI-C3, MTR-C1

2007-11-13T01:29:00.000+08:00

Public Bank
PBBANK-CE @ RM0.54; underlying share @ RM10.70; premium 16.45%

YTL
YTL-CE @ RM0.63; underlying share @ RM7.45; premium 17.58%

Hang Seng Index
HSI-C3 @ RM0.728; HSI is currently @ 27665.73; premium 30.56%

MTR Corporation (0066)
MTRC is a leading mass transport service provider in HK with core business engaged in the ownership and operation of the Mass Transit Railway ("MTR"). It is also engaged in property development at locations relating to the railway system.
MTR-C1 @ RM0.475; underlying share @ HKD25.10; premium 25.17%

The market is currently very unstable with the sub-prime issue still lingering around. With the current level of premium on these warrants together with the current market condition, it would be wise to take whatever profit there might be tomorrow. Good luck.

Hang Seng Index dropped most since 9/11

2007-11-06T01:34:00.000+08:00

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled the most since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said his government may delay allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks.
China Mobile Ltd. had the biggest decline in five years, while China Unicom Ltd. plunged 8.3 percent. PetroChina Co., China's largest oil explorer, dropped the most in almost seven years even as its shares rallied in their first day of trading in Shanghai.
The second straight day of declines halted a 49 percent rally in the Hang Seng that began Aug. 20 when China's currency regulator said mainland investors would be allowed to invest in Hong Kong. Premier Jiabao said on Nov. 3 that the government needed more time to assess the risks to the stability of the city's financial system.
"I expect a significant correction in the Hong Kong market over the next few weeks,'' said Aaron Boesky, who manages $200 million as chief executive officer at Marco Polo Investments Ltd. in Hong Kong.
The Hang Seng Index plunged 1,526.02, or 5 percent, to close at 28,942.32, its steepest decline since September 2001 and the largest fluctuation among markets included in global benchmarks. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 43 so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, lost 6.4 percent to 18,291.20, the biggest decline since May 2004.

source: bloomberg

New listing: MAYBANK-CF, TENAGA-CG, CHMOBIL-C5, ICBC-C4

2007-11-05T00:49:00.000+08:00

MAYBANK
MAYBANK-CF @ RM0.515; underlying share @ RM11.30; premium 13.54%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.88 (+36.5 cents / 70.87% gain in price)

TENAGA
TENAGA-CG @ RM0.62; underlying share @ RM9.20; premium 14.57%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.87 (+25 cents / 40.32% gain in price)

CHMOBIL (0941)

CHMOBIL-C5 @ RM0.54; underlying share @ HKD152.20; premium 13.55%

We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.75 (+21 cents / 38.89% gain in price)

ICBC (1398)
ICBC-C4 @ RM0.485; underlying share @ HKD6.83; premium 14.13%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.66 (+17.5 cents / 36.08% gain in price)

2007-10-30T18:26:00.000+08:00

China Construction Bank (0939.HK) TP10.10

2007-10-29T17:46:00.000+08:00

JP Morgan raised its target price on China Construction Bank (CCB) to 10.10 hkd from 7.1 hkd after the mainland Chinese bank reported strong third-quarter results. The bank's Hong Kong listed H-shares retained their ""overweight"" rating. CCB posted unaudited net profit of 22.85 bln yuan in the third quarter to September in accordance with both Chinese and international accounting standards. The bank earned net interest income of 50.09 bln yuan, with fee and commission income reaching 10.27 bln yuan and investment gains of 424 mln yuan during the July-September period. ""CCB's strong third-quarter results were another evidence of strong earnings momentum in the Chinese banking sector,"" the brokerage said, noting that the bank's third-quarter net profit is about the same as the second-half of last year, and accounts for 67 pct of the first half's net profit, suggesting very strong sequential and annual growth. JP Morgan said the bank's net interest margin (NIM) performance was better than expected -- a further gain of 10 basis points to 3.21pct in third quarter -- due to further optimization of its funding mix and rising asset yields. A strong equity market also supported sharp fee growth, it added. ""CCB's better-than-expected results confirmed our view that in the current environment, in particular, favors bigger banks,"" it said. The brokerage also increased its 2007-2009 earnings estimates by 6-7 pct to 73.17 bln yuan, 97.2 bln yuan and 118.02 bln, respectively. According to Thomson Financial, the mean net profit estimate of 27 brokerages for CCB is 68.25 bln hkd.

Buy CHCBC-C1 at 18.5sen and below!

BUY China Life Call Warrant

2007-10-26T11:01:00.000+08:00

Merrill Lynch said it has raised its target price on China Life Insurance Co's Hong Kong-listed H-shares to 60.88 hkd from 43. 59 hkd. The brokerage maintained its ""buy"" call on the China insurer. ""China Life remains one of the top picks (in) the sector. The stock is likely to benefit from the strong A-share market, strong third quarter results and premium recovery"" in the fourth quarter, it said. Merrill Lynch noted that China Life is likely to post strong third-quarter results on the back of strong investments given the company only realized a small portion of its investments in the first half. It said the company had begun to see a pick-up in regular premiums in protection products due to the various campaigns its has launched. ""We expect premium growth (under Chinese accounting standards) to recover to around (the) low teens in fourth quarter 2007,"" it said, adding that China Life has been a laggard. Meanwhile, Merril Lynch also raised the target price on Ping An Insurance to 110.92 hkd from 73 hkd and maintained its ""neutral"" rating on the stock as it believes the recent rally in the stock has already priced in most of the good news. The brokerage gave a ""sell"" rating on PICC Property & Casualty and cut its target price to 9.0 hkd from 10.12 hkd as the current share price has detached itself from fundamentals after a gain of 308 pct year to date.

Based on TP of HK60.88, the ChLife-C4 will be at RM1.06 with zero premium attached.
ChLife is currentlt trading at 51.85 , ChLife-C4 is at 72 sen 11:52am 26 Oct07.

Use your brain, not your feet...

2007-10-22T11:09:00.000+08:00

WOW, what an incredible opening for today's 4 HK CWs! Pls refer to the table provided earlier.
ChMerch-C1 at 19.5 sen fetched 46.1%, HKEX-C4 at 34.5 sen 55.4%, Zijin-C1 at 19.5sen 55% and CHCBC-C1 19 sen is 34.1% premium.

The prices are TOO BULL to pay for.

Pay more attention to CHLife-C4, currently trading at 68sen, 10 to 1, Exe. price at HK36.88. Premium is only 2% ! Expiry date is 23/5/2007. Too good to be true!

But, this ChLife-C4 is issued by CIMB, seems like those CWs issued by CIMB received luke warm respond by the market especially retailers. What's wrong with CIMB issued CW? Any one know why?

Remember to bottom fish if the market continuesly dropping for 3/4 days!

New listing: CHCBC-C1, CHMERCH-C1, HKEX-C4, ZIJIN-C1

2007-10-22T02:18:00.000+08:00

Since the issue price of the warrants are cheap and given the bullishness of the HK market, I will set a premium of 20% to estimate the trading price of the CWs tomorrow.

China Construction Bank (0939)

CHCBC-C1 @ RM0.10 ; underlying share @ HKD7.30 ; premium 13.14%

We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.14 (+4cents / 36% gain in price)

China Merchant Holdings (0144)

CHMERCH-C1 @ RM0.10 ; underlying share @ HKD45.45 ; premium 20.34%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.10 (no gain in price)

Hong Kong Exchange (0388)

HKEX-C4 @ RM0.11 ; underlying share @ HKD252.60 ; premium 11.07%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.16 (+5cents / 45% gain in price)

Zijin Mining (2899)

ZIJIN-C1 @ RM0.07 ; underlying share @ HKD13.36 ; premium 5.68%
We set a premium of 20%, the price of the call warrant would be RM0.11 (+4cents / 59% gain in price)

Post-NCCP phobia

2007-10-18T00:55:00.000+08:00

The 17th NCCP was unveiled on 15th October and will last until 21 October.
According to the track record of post-NCCP performances since 1977, the HSI should decline in the first three months. On average, HSI lost 6.7% in the first month after the NCCP, 9.8% in the second month and 8.9% in the third month. Please refer to the table.
Nevertheless, UOB KayHian research expects "the decline to be short-lived and the correction to be shallow", as "the abundant liquidity coming into the market this time could help narrow downside risk."

RED means STOP!

2007-10-12T00:05:00.000+08:00

Share prices closed at yet another record high as strong gains in China financials, coal stocks and oil firms helped the key index break the 29,000 points level. Liquidity inflows due to China's expanded qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) program and a fresh high on the Shanghai bourse helped H-shares maintain their momentum.
The Hang Seng index closed up 563.69 points or 1.97% at 29,133.02, off a low of 28,609.68 and just a tad off the new all-time-high of 29,133.76. Turnover was heavy at 178.71 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index closed up 932.13 points or 5.1% at 19,218.05, slightly off a new all-time-high of 19,219.44.

Coal stocks surged and hit new all-time-highs, with China Shenhua Energy outperforming after UBS raised its target price on the stock to HKD101.00 from HKD35.15 citing strong demand for coal. China Shenhua closed up 11.2 HKD or 24.01% at HKD57.85, off an all-time-high of HKD57.95.
Oil stocks were higher after crude prices rose overnight. PetroChina was up 86 cents or 5.9% at HKD15.44, with investors ignoring news that US Investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cut its stake further in China's largest oil producer to 3.1%. CNOOC was up 72 cents or 5.6 pct at 13.58 and Sinopec rose 1.16 HKD or 11. 39% to HKD11.34.

The market has gone crazy. Funds and even retail investors ignored all fundamentals and just kept on buying as if there is no tomorrow. I feel that a major correction is just around the corner and this is definitely not the time for new investments as nearly all stocks are already overbought. Anyone who has just joined the market now should play for the short term and should lock in profits quickly. "I expect the market to cool down a bit next week during (China's) 17th Communist Party Congress as the Chinese government may announce stronger austerity measures to cap growth in housing and stock markets," said Castor Pang, a strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial group. The market correction is imminent, therefore please buy cautiously!

New listing: ZB-CIMB, ZC-CIMB

2007-10-08T22:05:00.000+08:00

Two new basket call warrants will be listed tomorrow. The details are as follows:

1) Black Gold basket CWs; ZC-CIMB (0900ZC)
Comprising ordinary shares of SCOMI (x 1.0), SAPCRES (x 1.0), PETROCHINA (x 1.0), CNOOC (x 1.0), and SINOPEC (x 1.0).
Based on today's closing prices, ZC-CIMB is currently having a premium of 18.50%.
By applying a 20% premium, it is expected to be trading around RM0.355 (+3cents or +9.23% gain in price).

2) 3 Treasures basket CWs; ZB-CIMB (0900ZB)
Comprising ordinary shares of BURSA (x 2.0), HKEX (x 0.5), and SGX (x 1.0).
Based on today's closing prices, ZB-CIMB is currently at 10.37% premium.
A 20% premium will raise the basket cws to RM0.650 (+23cents or +54.76% gain in price).

Please refer to the table above for more details.

List of HK call warrants

2007-10-01T01:07:00.000+08:00

Many of the HK-CWs closed at a discount last Friday as traders and investors disposed of their shares; partly because many do not want to hold any positions over the weekend and also force-selling activities. The Dow Jones industrial index closed slightly lower last Friday at 13,895.63 (-17.31 points). Traders can watch out for the CWs with huge discount, such as CHMOBIL-C1 (1.83% discount), CNOOC-C1 (2.08% discount), & ICBC-C3 (1.87% discount). Nevertheless, do stay cautious as many of the underlying stocks have already risen quite a lot.

New listing: CHLIFE-C4, PETROCH-C4

2007-09-28T00:21:00.000+08:00

China Life (2628)
CHLIFE-C4 @ RM0.32 ; underlying share @ HKD 43.20 ; premium 2.02%
At a premium of 15%, CW price is RM0.57 (25 cents / 78.0% gain)
CHLIFE-C3 closed at 20 cents today (premium 15.70%), thus CHLIFE-C4 should be trading at around the same premium too.

Petro China (0857)
PETROCH-C4 @ RM0.145 ; underlying share @ HKD14.06 ; discount 6.62%
At a premium of 15%, CW price is RM0.416 (27 cents / 186.58% gain)
It's been a long time since we last saw call warrants hit more than 100% gain on the first day of trading. Even with a 5% premium, PETROCH-C4 can go to 29 cents, a 100.28% gain in price!
Are the glory days of the call warrants coming back?

New listing: ANGANG-C1, CHEUNGK-C1, CCCC-C4, CHLIFE-C3

2007-09-27T00:04:00.000+08:00

The table above shows prices of the call warrants at different premiums (from 0% to 25%), based on the latest closing prices of the underlying shares.
By referring to past information, we can assume that investors are most likely willing to purchase newly listed CWs at 15% premium on a normal trading day. If the market is extra bullish, a 20% premium wouldn't be much of a problem. Using a premium of 15%, we can roughly guess the prices of the CWs for tomorrow.

Angang Steel (0347)
ANGANG-C1 @ RM0.10 ; premium 11.85%
At a premium of 15%, CW price is RM0.113 (13.18% gain)
Note: Angang Steel's H-share is still trading around 30% discount to its A-shares.

Cheung Kong (0001)
CHEUNGK-C1 @ RM0.11 ; premium 9.94%
At a premium of 15%, CW price = RM0.147 (33.93% gain)
Note: The recent rate cut in Hong Kong has benefited property stocks.

China Communications Construction (1800)
CCCC-C4 @ RM0.11 ; premium 19.14%
At a premium of 15%, CW price = RM0.088 (20.36% loss)
Note: CCCC's share price has not moved much for the past 2 weeks, causing its CW to have a higher premium. Nonetheless, I reckon CCCC-C4 will still be able to stay on the green side tomorrow.

China Life Insurance (2628)
CHLIFE-C3 @ RM0.11 ; premium 5.44%
At a premium of 15%, CW price = RM0.169 (53.69% gain)
Note: China Life's share price has just started to move, and is heading to 45HKD.

Fed reduced interest-rate; HSI closed at record high

2007-09-19T23:56:00.000+08:00

Hong Kong shares ended sharply higher, with the main index finishing above 25,000 points for the first time. In a widely anticipated move, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, its first reduction in four years, to 4.75 percent on Tuesday in a move to avert a possible economic slowdown in the US.
The benchmark Hang Seng Index closed up 977.79 points or 4%at 25, 554.64, after hitting a fresh intraday high of 25,648.44. Breadth was positive as gainers outpaced decliners 572 to 409 while 151 stocks were unchanged. Volume traded reached 18.17 billion share worth 131.81 billion HK dollars.

Market heavyweight CNOOC ended at a record high, up 1.32 dollars or 12.4% at HKD11.98. CNOOC, the listed arm of the mainland's largest offshore oil producer, China National Offshore Oil Corp, surged after oil prices breached 82 US dollars per barrel in after-market trading today. Brokerage house Goldman Sachs has a "buy" rating on CNOOC as it expects the company to benefit more than its peers from the higher oil prices. Its call warrant CNOOC-C1 surged a 6 cents (44.44%) to close at an intraday high of 19.5 cents.

China raised lending rate... again..

2007-09-18T01:30:00.000+08:00

China raised its benchmark one-year lending rate by 27 basis points to 7. 29 percent, the highest level in nine years, in a continuing effort to cool the economy and curb inflation. It is the fifth time this year that the Chinese authorities have increased rates. The annual rate of inflation in the mainland accelerated to 6.5 percent in August, the highest since December 1996, as the economy expanded at an annual rate of 11.9 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in 12 years. Aside from raising rates, analysts also expect China to increase the amount of reserves that banks should deposit with the central bank to cut bank lending and ease consumer spending.

The 2 Giant Chinese energy companies: China ShenHua Energy & CNOOC

2007-09-17T00:08:00.000+08:00

China Shenhua Energy was sharply higher after news that mainland regulators will review the company's A-share issue plan on Monday. The stock surged 2.05 hkd or 5.32 pct to 40.6, off an all-time-high of 41. 1.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it will review China Shenhua Energy's plan for an initial public offering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. According to a draft prospectus, Shenhua Energy, China's largest coal producer, will issue up to 1.8 bln A-shares for listing.
Quoted from the Forbes' Fabulous 50: "China is burning coal faster than its largest miner can pull it out of the ground. So China Shenhua is looking for more, both at home and abroad. Plans to raise $7 billion with a new listing in Shanghai's roaring market (it listed in Hong Kong 2 years ago), even though it has plenty of cash. Will use the proceeds to expand its 21 domestic mines, to acquire more mines, add more power plants and beef up its railroad and harbor infrastructure. Chairman Chen Biting aims to make China Shenhua, now number 2, the world's largest coal miner. Is 80% owned by Shenhua Group, a government entity."
SHENHUA-C1 surged 4.5 cents (+25.71%) to close at 22 cents (premium 3.14%) with an intra-day high of 23 cents last Friday.

With the oil price touching a new high, the next counter to look out for is the China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd. (CNOOC) and its call warrant, CNOOC-C1.
Quoted from the Forbes' Fabulous 50: "China's buccaneering offshore oil company goes where few Western giants dare in search of resources. Signed an exploration contract in war-torn Somalia in May and is reportedly negotiating in Iran. The shares, listed in Hong Kong, have risen 22% in the last 12 months, but net income has been growing at 32% on average over the last 5 years. Came to embody Western fears of Asian state-owned companies buying up corporate America and Europe after its bid for Unocal was blocked by the US government in 2005. CNOOC is 66% owned by government entities, but independent board members are in place to speak for international shareholders."
CNOOC added 20 cents to closed at HKD 10.34 last Friday. Meanwhile its call warrant, CNOOC-C1 closed at 12.5 cents (+1 cent / +8.7%) last Friday, and currently having a premium of 6.62%.

H-shares trading at discount to A-shares; the CWs to look out for are...

2007-09-13T01:46:00.000+08:00

At present, only call warrants of these four companies are being listed on bursa (CHALCO, CHINA LIFE, ICBC, and SINOPEC).
By allowing investors from mainland China to invest overseas, H-shares in Hong Kong which are trading at discount to their A-shares counterparts in Shanghai/ShenZhen would definitely be at the top of the list. Most likely, these H-shares prices will rise and A-shares prices will fall as investors would opt for H-shares which are much more cheaper.
The orange column shows the price of the H-share if it was to rise to at least half the level of the A-share price. And from there, we can project the expected price for its call warrant. Please refer to the table above.

Dragon Zone 见 龙 在 天

大摩降体育用品股前景至「与大市同步」 看淡品牌看好分销

Hawthorn Fruits. So Juicy!!

山楂之恋

Shan Cha

山楂之恋

Hawthorn Fruit

JPM Downgrades Shineway To Underweight Vs Neutral

四环医药控股集团有限公司 股票编号： 00460

Shanghai Electric(2727.HK) L/T Winner.

Shanghai Elec Tipped L/T Winner

HK ENERGY 0987.HK

SH ELECTRIC 2727.HK

SiHuan Pharmaceutical Holdings.

CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY

HK ENERGY 987.HK BUY TP HKD1.80

AusNutria 1717.HK

MengNiuDairy 2319.HK Rated BUY!

宝钢股份：价格提升 业绩增长

PIGS Problems????

Greens At Overweight; Targets HK$2.30

BUY GREENS at HKD1.86 & 1.76 !

GREENS格菱<01318.HK>料未来五年盈利持续增长

GREENS HOLDGINGS 1318.HK

Who is this Mahatir?....马哈迪“嘛嘛”（mamak）

【行业分析】环保行业：关注污水处理带来的价值

深圳能源(000027)：打造“环保能源”第一股

ShangHai Electric 2727.HK

武钢股份：钢铁龙头 蓄势充分

Malaysia Boleh!!!!iiiiALLAH pls help Malaysia!

上海电气 (2727.HK)：设备龙头 布局新能源

亚太清洁能源(green energy) 投资去年首超美洲

1065.HK Yearly Result.

TianJin Capital 1065.HK Interim Result.

TianJin Capital 1065.HK

TianJin Capital code in ShangHai :600874

TianJin Capital (1065.HK)

TianJin Capital (1065.HK)

US Energy Stocks.

PUER ART & CULTURE

Disaster reveals opportunities..

WILMAR,SIME to Golden AGRI

Asia telcos lure investors..

Ten Years to come for Chian..

次贷危机中，中国机遇何在?-意见领袖-《财经网》

黑岩CEO劳伦斯·芬克谈教训

Ping An

China Power Producers....Tariff Hike??

摩根大通认为投资中国股票时机已到-金融-《财经网》

Running Out of Planet to Exploit - New York Times

Guangshen Railway(525.HK)

China Agri (606.HK) TP:HKD 7

Warren Buffet's words of wisdom...

CHINA Will be # 1 by 2017

CNOOC,SINOPEC and PETROCHINA..

China Resources Power is "Top Pick" among..

PetroChina cut to "SELL"TP HKD 9

Worst is not over yet...

SINOPEC's TP cut to HKD9.45

China Mobil is Top Pick...

China's power sector downgraded

Dow Jone ups 391 pts, KLCI downs 11 pts..WHY???

私募基金教父赵丹阳清盘离场 A股已找不到好股票?_财经_凤凰网

Chinese new year chocolates

阿思达克财经网-中国站-焦点新闻

南华早报：股市暴跌预示的不是亚洲危机_财经_凤凰网

华尔街奇才扫荡美国楼市 次贷危机中赚上百亿_财经_凤凰网

HK Great Wall at 20800 and 18600...

Any Taker??

New listing: BURSA-CJ, GENTING-CJ, CNOOC-C3, WILMAR-C1

New listing: MISC-CE, GAMUDA-CE, KLK-CF, HSBC-C4, PETROCH-C6

Be Patient, No Hurry !!!

New listing: MAYBANK-CG, DIGI-CW, KLCI-CD, HSI-C4, CHEUNGK-C2

New listing: CHOLAND-C1, PINGAN-C1, APPLE-C1, EXMOBIL-C1

Time to SELL!

New listing: BJTOTO-CC, GENTING-CI, IOICORP-CF, BOCOM-C1, SINOPEC-C3

New listing: CHCOAL-C1, ICBC-C5, PETROCH-C5, SINOPEC-C2

New listing: BURSA-CH, TM-CG, CCCC-C5, TOYOTA-C1

Time to Bottom Fish !!!!!!

New listing: KLK-CE, MISC-CD, HSBC-C3, HWL-C3

Dragon Zone 见龙在天

大摩降体育用品股前景至「与大市同步」看淡品牌看好分销

四环医药控股集团有限公司股票编号： 00460

宝钢股份：价格提升业绩增长

武钢股份：钢铁龙头蓄势充分

上海电气 (2727.HK)：设备龙头布局新能源

华尔街奇才扫荡美国楼市次贷危机中赚上百亿_财经_凤凰网