《大行报告》大摩降体育用品股前景至「与大市同步」 看淡品牌看好分销
2011-07-20
摩根士丹利认为，中国体育用品行业将面临调整，下调行业前景由「吸引」至「与大市同步」。认为内地运动服装的动力将由品牌转至分销商，预期李宁<02331.HK>及中国动向<03818.HK>未来数年仓存回购将会增加，料额外分别需要14.48亿元人民币及6.13亿元人民币作回购。该行冀望两间公司有冲击性的策略，以减少分销渠道的存货。市场普遍看淡内地运动服装近期的基本面，该行同意该看法，认为李宁及中国动向调整库存，将会令其他二线运动品牌的出售增长减慢。该行指，李宁及中国动向的过量存货，虽然对二线运动品牌有负面影响，惟料影响可控。
该行指出，Nike及Adidas在内地的市占率提高，料分销商如百丽<01880.HK>及宝胜<03813.HK>将可受惠，同时可抢占额外的市占率。
该股首选百丽，目标价由16.2元升至19.3元，维持「增持」评级。
其後推荐宝胜，目标价由1.35元调高至1.7元，维持「增持」评级。
安踏<02020.HK>目标价由15.5元降至13.8元，维持「增持」评级。
李宁目标价由16.8元大削至7.2元，评级由「与大市同步」降至「减持」。
中国动向目标价由3.8元大削至1.8元，评级由「增持」降至「与大市同步」。
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Shan Cha
营养功效
山楂片含多种维生素、山楂酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸、苹果酸等，还含有黄酮类、内酯、糖类、蛋白质、脂肪和钙、磷、铁等矿物质，所含的解脂酶能促进脂肪类食物的消化。促进胃液分泌和增加胃内酶素等功能。中医认为，山楂具有消积化滞、收敛止痢、活血化淤等功效。主治饮食积滞、胸膈痞满、疝气血淤闭经等症。山楂中含有山萜类及黄酮类等药物成分，具有显著的扩张血管及降压作用，有增强心肌、抗心律不齐、调节血脂及胆固醇含量的功能。
适应范围
一般人皆可食用。儿童、老年人、消化不良尤其适合食用。伤风感冒、消化不良、食欲不振、儿童软骨缺钙症、儿童缺铁性贫血者可多食山楂片。
山楂片含多种维生素、山楂酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸、苹果酸等，还含有黄酮类、内酯、糖类、蛋白质、脂肪和钙、磷、铁等矿物质，所含的解脂酶能促进脂肪类食物的消化。促进胃液分泌和增加胃内酶素等功能。中医认为，山楂具有消积化滞、收敛止痢、活血化淤等功效。主治饮食积滞、胸膈痞满、疝气血淤闭经等症。山楂中含有山萜类及黄酮类等药物成分，具有显著的扩张血管及降压作用，有增强心肌、抗心律不齐、调节血脂及胆固醇含量的功能。
适应范围
一般人皆可食用。儿童、老年人、消化不良尤其适合食用。伤风感冒、消化不良、食欲不振、儿童软骨缺钙症、儿童缺铁性贫血者可多食山楂片。
山楂之恋
随着《山楂树之恋》的上映，山楂成为近段时间最有人气的水果之一。除了常见的消积化、收敛止痢、活血化淤，你知道山楂对女性有哪些特殊功效吗？怎样吃才能让这些功效发挥作用？1、山楂可以治疗痛经及月经不调。
由于很多痛经是由于血瘀引起的，而山楂具有活血化瘀的作用，所以对此具有一定的疗效。
饮食方案：将山楂洗净后加入适量的水，直至将山楂煮烂，加入红糖熬成稀糊状即可，经期前3-5日开始服用至经后3日为一个疗程。
2、山楂具有抗衰老的作用。
山楂的抗衰老作用居水果之首，多喝些山楂柠檬水，是最简单的美容方法了。
山楂柠檬水的做法：将柠檬片或者柠檬干与山楂一同泡入水中饮用，可以反复冲泡，需坚持饮用。
3、具有降脂减肥的作用。
山楂具有很强的助消化功能，每日坚持饮用山楂茶，还可以达到降血脂的功效。
山楂茶的做法：将山楂洗净后切开，之后根据个人口味加入冰糖，一起用沸水泡置3-5分钟就可以饮用了。
【药理作用】用于降压，调节血脂，消积食、健脾胃，行气散淤、驱绦虫；可用于肉食积滞、胃脘涨满、泻痢腹痛、瘀血经闭、产后瘀阻、高血压症；改善心肌收缩，扩张冠状血管血液流量。
Hawthorn Fruit
山楂片含多种维生素、山楂酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸、苹果酸等，还含有黄酮类、内酯、糖类、蛋白质、脂肪和钙、磷、铁等矿物质，所含的解脂酶能促进脂肪类食物的消化。促进胃液分泌和增加胃内酶素等功能。中医认为，山楂具有消积化滞、收敛止痢、活血化淤等功效。主治饮食积滞、胸膈痞满、疝气血淤闭经等症。山楂中含有山萜类及黄酮类等药物成分，具有显著的扩张血管及降压作用，有增强心肌、抗心律不齐、调节血脂及胆固醇含量的功能。
【性味与归经】 酸、甘、微温。归脾、胃、肝经。
【功能与主治】 消食健胃，行气散瘀。用于肉食积滞，胃脘胀满，泻痢腹痛，瘀血经闭，产后瘀阻，心腹刺痛，疝气疼痛；高脂血症。焦山楂消食导滞作用增强。用于肉食积滞，泻痢不爽。
【性味与归经】 酸、甘、微温。归脾、胃、肝经。
【功能与主治】 消食健胃，行气散瘀。用于肉食积滞，胃脘胀满，泻痢腹痛，瘀血经闭，产后瘀阻，心腹刺痛，疝气疼痛；高脂血症。焦山楂消食导滞作用增强。用于肉食积滞，泻痢不爽。
Thursday, November 11, 2010
JPM Downgrades Shineway To Underweight Vs Neutral
JPMorgan downgrades Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) to Underweight vs Neutral after 3Q10 results show slowing growth. House expects more margin pressure as more drugs it sold added to essential drug list program starting 2011; drugs on list have to have their margins lowered. House also cuts target price to HK$20.00 vs HK$21.00 after lowering FY10-FY11 sales by 9.6%-15.8% on weak 3Q10 sales. "In our view, the margin pressure for Shineway is greater than that of its peers due to its portfolio of cheaper products and its above-average margins," says JPM. Adds, prefers United Laboratories (3933.HK) because of its exciting new product portfolio (which includes diabetic insulin) and lower risk of any margin compression that comes from new government initiatives. Shineway Pharmaceutical last down 1.2% at HK$25.55
MARKET OUTLOOK
The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing is expected to bring U.S. dollar under pressure over the next six months and increase risks of global inflation and asset bubbles in the long run. China has recently raised its key
interest rate for the first time since 2007 in order to combat inflation and rising
property prices. This move reflected a turning point of China’s monetary policy
and change in government’s top priority from “growth” to “inflation”. We expect to see more rate hikes in 2011 but the impact on stock market will be similar to the previous cycle in our view. During the period from April 2006 to October 2007, China lifted 1-year lending rate from 5.58% to 7.29% while the Shanghai SE Composite Index surged from approximately 1,400 to 6,000 and the Hang Seng Index (“HSI”) climbed from approximately 17,000 to 32,000. The possibility of a bull cycle for China and Hong Kong stock markets over the next 6 to 12 months is also supported by fundamental valuation. According to market estimates, the HSI(at 24,144)is now trading at 2010 PER of 15.3x which is close to the historical averages of 15.9x, 15.4x and 14.8x over the past 10, 20 and 30 years respectively.Obviously, current valuation of the HSI is not cheap but certainly not at a risky level. We maintain our year-end target for the HSI at 24,000-25,000 and believe the index would reach 28,000 in 2011. Any pull back should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Chinese banking sector is our top favourite among H shares for the rest of the year because (i) third-quarter earnings of banks were largely above market expectations, (ii) further rate hikes will improve net interest margin resulting in earnings upgrade, (iii) current valuation of banks, trading at 2011 PER of 8.5x-13.0x or 10.1x on average, is still cheap by historical standard or compared with HSCEI.
Our top picks remains ICBC (1398) and CCB (939). On the other hand, we continue to take a cautious view on Chinese property stocks given unfavourable
government policies. However, those with robust property sales revenue and strong executive capability should deserve a positive re-rating such as Evergrande (3333). Our price target for Evergrande is $4.20.
Investors who prefer to trade laggards may consider the following stocks. Angang Steel’s (347) share price dropped 2% in October since the company recorded a loss in the third quarter. However, we expect earnings to make a sharp rebound in the fourth quarter amid a rise in steel price. Our price target for Angang Steel is $14.80.
SMIC (981), the largest semiconductor foundry in Mainland China, reported
better-than-expected third quarter earnings. We believe the counter deserves a positive re-rating with a price target of $0.75 based on P/B of 1.25x. New World Development (17), the smallest blue chip property company, is currently trading at a discount of 42% to NAV. Further increase in Hong Kong’s property prices will eventually trigger a re-rating of property stock with deep discount to NAV in our view. Our price target for New World Development is $19.60.
The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing is expected to bring U.S. dollar under pressure over the next six months and increase risks of global inflation and asset bubbles in the long run. China has recently raised its key
interest rate for the first time since 2007 in order to combat inflation and rising
property prices. This move reflected a turning point of China’s monetary policy
and change in government’s top priority from “growth” to “inflation”. We expect to see more rate hikes in 2011 but the impact on stock market will be similar to the previous cycle in our view. During the period from April 2006 to October 2007, China lifted 1-year lending rate from 5.58% to 7.29% while the Shanghai SE Composite Index surged from approximately 1,400 to 6,000 and the Hang Seng Index (“HSI”) climbed from approximately 17,000 to 32,000. The possibility of a bull cycle for China and Hong Kong stock markets over the next 6 to 12 months is also supported by fundamental valuation. According to market estimates, the HSI(at 24,144)is now trading at 2010 PER of 15.3x which is close to the historical averages of 15.9x, 15.4x and 14.8x over the past 10, 20 and 30 years respectively.Obviously, current valuation of the HSI is not cheap but certainly not at a risky level. We maintain our year-end target for the HSI at 24,000-25,000 and believe the index would reach 28,000 in 2011. Any pull back should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Chinese banking sector is our top favourite among H shares for the rest of the year because (i) third-quarter earnings of banks were largely above market expectations, (ii) further rate hikes will improve net interest margin resulting in earnings upgrade, (iii) current valuation of banks, trading at 2011 PER of 8.5x-13.0x or 10.1x on average, is still cheap by historical standard or compared with HSCEI.
Our top picks remains ICBC (1398) and CCB (939). On the other hand, we continue to take a cautious view on Chinese property stocks given unfavourable
government policies. However, those with robust property sales revenue and strong executive capability should deserve a positive re-rating such as Evergrande (3333). Our price target for Evergrande is $4.20.
Investors who prefer to trade laggards may consider the following stocks. Angang Steel’s (347) share price dropped 2% in October since the company recorded a loss in the third quarter. However, we expect earnings to make a sharp rebound in the fourth quarter amid a rise in steel price. Our price target for Angang Steel is $14.80.
SMIC (981), the largest semiconductor foundry in Mainland China, reported
better-than-expected third quarter earnings. We believe the counter deserves a positive re-rating with a price target of $0.75 based on P/B of 1.25x. New World Development (17), the smallest blue chip property company, is currently trading at a discount of 42% to NAV. Further increase in Hong Kong’s property prices will eventually trigger a re-rating of property stock with deep discount to NAV in our view. Our price target for New World Development is $19.60.
Friday, November 5, 2010
四环医药控股集团有限公司 股票编号： 00460
SIHUAN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDINGS GROUP LTD. 集团网址： http://www.sihuanpharm.com
业务状况
集团简介：
－ 集团主要供应１４种药物，用於治疗心脑血管及中枢神经系统。其中「克林澳」、「安捷利」为唯一经国家药监局批准含特定活性成分的药物品牌，共占集团２００９年度及２０１０年６月止半年度总收入５７・３％及５７・７％。另亦销售仿制药及抗敏感药。
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团拥有２支共３３３人的研发团队，成功开发１３种产品，并取得１２种产品的全国分销权。集团在中国持有９９项专利，另有２３３项专利正在申请当中，在国外有４项。大部分产品已列入国家及省级医保药品目录及国家基本药物目录，并受政府的零售价格上限管制。集团正开发逾３０种产品，包括
四种已完成或正处於临床试验阶段，预期四年内推出，其中１０种为创新药，其馀为仿制药。
－ 至２０１０年１０月止，集团分销网络覆盖３１个省市及自治区近一万家医院，占所有三级医院７０％、二级医院５５％，以及５４００家一级及其他医院与医疗机构。
－ 集团产品的主要原材料为活性药物成分，最大供应商为Ｈａｒｂｉｎ Ｔｒｉ－Ｌｉｏｎ
Ｐｈａｒｍａｃｅｕｔｉｃａｌ（主要分包制造商）及北京高博。集团与北京高博於２００９年河北省成立廊坊四环，并持５１％权益，以生产ＡＰＩ及医药中介产品等原材料。
－ 集团拥有一间克林澳ＡＰＩ生产厂、一间锅炉房及一间接待办事处（总面积为２９３２平方米）、一个扩建设施及一间口服固体药包装厂，总面积为７８２平方米（未获建设规划许可证）。集团共经营六条综合生产线, 所有生产设施均获国家药监局的ＧＭＰ认证。
业绩表现：
－ 截至２０１０年６月３０日止半年度，集团营业额上升４６・９％至４・７３亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升１・１倍至２・５５亿元。期内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升４９・５％至３・４６亿元，毛利率由去年同期的７１・９％上升至７３・２％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升５４・２％至３・９３亿元，占总营业额８３％，毛利率由去年同期的
８１・８％下降至８０・６％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升１９・３％至７９７８万元，占总营业额１６・９％，毛利率由去年同期的３４・３％上升至３７％；
（四）於２０１０年６月３０日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・２亿元；流动比率为５・１倍；集团并无任何借款。
－ ２００９年度，集团营业额上升３９％至７・０９亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升３７・７％至３・２６亿元。年内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升３７・３％至５・１７亿元，毛利率由去年的７３・８％下跌至７２・９％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升３９・７％至５・６１亿元，占总营业额７９・１％，毛利率由去年的
８４・５％下降至８１・４％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升３０・７％至１・４亿元，占总营业额１９・８％，毛利率由去年的３４・２％上升至４０・８％；
（四）於２００９年１２月３１日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・１３亿元；流动比率为３・２倍；集团并无任何借款。
发展概览
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团业务发展策略概述如下：
（一）继续巩固心脑血管药品业务，并扩大研发团队及重点发展注射用磺西林钠及奥卡西平片。另计划於四年内推出四种药物以补充现有产品组合；
（二）拟扩展销售团队至５００人，设立更多地区办事处，拟於五年内将三级、二级、一级及其他医院的覆盖率分别提高至９０％、８０％及７０％。；
（三）透过收购、合作及合营进行扩充，计划与境外药品公司成立合营公司；及
（四）拟将生产设施升级至符合新的ＧＭＰ标准及有选择性地符合欧盟或美国ＦＤＡ标准来加强生产质量；集团现有两个已规划的生产设施。其中河北省廊坊主要生产活性药物成分，预期将於２０１１年上半年投
产。另一於北京生产冻干粉针剂及小容量注射剂，预期将於２０１２年底投产。完成后总年产能将增加１亿瓶冻干粉针剂、１０００万瓶无菌粉针剂、３亿万瓶小容量注射剂及３０吨活性药物成分。
－ ２０１０年１０月，集团发售新股上市，估计集资净额为６３・３６亿港元，拟用作以下用途：
（一）约１２・６７亿港元（占２０％）用於开发及研究抗感染、新陈代谢、心血管系统、肿瘤及神经系统等目标治疗领域新产品；
（二）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於收购能补充及扩展集团现有产品组合的特定产品或生产线；
（三）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於建设位於廊坊及北京的两项新生产设施；
（四）约１９・０１亿港元（占３０％）用於并购适当的目标公司或业务；
（五）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用於加大销售及分销力度；及
（六）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用作营运资金及一般公司开支，特别是用於应付集团业务模式变动所产生的现金流量需求增加。
股本变化
－ ２０１０年１０月，以每股＄４・６，发行及配售１２・５亿股新股上市，另超额配售１・８７５亿股。
招股书预测
－ 「预期截至２０１０年１２月３１日止年度之股东应占溢利将不少於５亿元人民币，全面摊薄每股盈利不少於人民币１０分。」
－
业务状况
集团简介：
－ 集团主要供应１４种药物，用於治疗心脑血管及中枢神经系统。其中「克林澳」、「安捷利」为唯一经国家药监局批准含特定活性成分的药物品牌，共占集团２００９年度及２０１０年６月止半年度总收入５７・３％及５７・７％。另亦销售仿制药及抗敏感药。
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团拥有２支共３３３人的研发团队，成功开发１３种产品，并取得１２种产品的全国分销权。集团在中国持有９９项专利，另有２３３项专利正在申请当中，在国外有４项。大部分产品已列入国家及省级医保药品目录及国家基本药物目录，并受政府的零售价格上限管制。集团正开发逾３０种产品，包括
四种已完成或正处於临床试验阶段，预期四年内推出，其中１０种为创新药，其馀为仿制药。
－ 至２０１０年１０月止，集团分销网络覆盖３１个省市及自治区近一万家医院，占所有三级医院７０％、二级医院５５％，以及５４００家一级及其他医院与医疗机构。
－ 集团产品的主要原材料为活性药物成分，最大供应商为Ｈａｒｂｉｎ Ｔｒｉ－Ｌｉｏｎ
Ｐｈａｒｍａｃｅｕｔｉｃａｌ（主要分包制造商）及北京高博。集团与北京高博於２００９年河北省成立廊坊四环，并持５１％权益，以生产ＡＰＩ及医药中介产品等原材料。
－ 集团拥有一间克林澳ＡＰＩ生产厂、一间锅炉房及一间接待办事处（总面积为２９３２平方米）、一个扩建设施及一间口服固体药包装厂，总面积为７８２平方米（未获建设规划许可证）。集团共经营六条综合生产线, 所有生产设施均获国家药监局的ＧＭＰ认证。
业绩表现：
－ 截至２０１０年６月３０日止半年度，集团营业额上升４６・９％至４・７３亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升１・１倍至２・５５亿元。期内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升４９・５％至３・４６亿元，毛利率由去年同期的７１・９％上升至７３・２％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升５４・２％至３・９３亿元，占总营业额８３％，毛利率由去年同期的
８１・８％下降至８０・６％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升１９・３％至７９７８万元，占总营业额１６・９％，毛利率由去年同期的３４・３％上升至３７％；
（四）於２０１０年６月３０日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・２亿元；流动比率为５・１倍；集团并无任何借款。
－ ２００９年度，集团营业额上升３９％至７・０９亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升３７・７％至３・２６亿元。年内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升３７・３％至５・１７亿元，毛利率由去年的７３・８％下跌至７２・９％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升３９・７％至５・６１亿元，占总营业额７９・１％，毛利率由去年的
８４・５％下降至８１・４％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升３０・７％至１・４亿元，占总营业额１９・８％，毛利率由去年的３４・２％上升至４０・８％；
（四）於２００９年１２月３１日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・１３亿元；流动比率为３・２倍；集团并无任何借款。
发展概览
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团业务发展策略概述如下：
（一）继续巩固心脑血管药品业务，并扩大研发团队及重点发展注射用磺西林钠及奥卡西平片。另计划於四年内推出四种药物以补充现有产品组合；
（二）拟扩展销售团队至５００人，设立更多地区办事处，拟於五年内将三级、二级、一级及其他医院的覆盖率分别提高至９０％、８０％及７０％。；
（三）透过收购、合作及合营进行扩充，计划与境外药品公司成立合营公司；及
（四）拟将生产设施升级至符合新的ＧＭＰ标准及有选择性地符合欧盟或美国ＦＤＡ标准来加强生产质量；集团现有两个已规划的生产设施。其中河北省廊坊主要生产活性药物成分，预期将於２０１１年上半年投
产。另一於北京生产冻干粉针剂及小容量注射剂，预期将於２０１２年底投产。完成后总年产能将增加１亿瓶冻干粉针剂、１０００万瓶无菌粉针剂、３亿万瓶小容量注射剂及３０吨活性药物成分。
－ ２０１０年１０月，集团发售新股上市，估计集资净额为６３・３６亿港元，拟用作以下用途：
（一）约１２・６７亿港元（占２０％）用於开发及研究抗感染、新陈代谢、心血管系统、肿瘤及神经系统等目标治疗领域新产品；
（二）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於收购能补充及扩展集团现有产品组合的特定产品或生产线；
（三）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於建设位於廊坊及北京的两项新生产设施；
（四）约１９・０１亿港元（占３０％）用於并购适当的目标公司或业务；
（五）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用於加大销售及分销力度；及
（六）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用作营运资金及一般公司开支，特别是用於应付集团业务模式变动所产生的现金流量需求增加。
股本变化
－ ２０１０年１０月，以每股＄４・６，发行及配售１２・５亿股新股上市，另超额配售１・８７５亿股。
招股书预测
－ 「预期截至２０１０年１２月３１日止年度之股东应占溢利将不少於５亿元人民币，全面摊薄每股盈利不少於人民币１０分。」
－
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Shanghai Electric(2727.HK) L/T Winner.
STOCK CALL: Citigroup raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.50 from HK$4.00 on expectation of more profits from new energy business, overseas orders. Says company's plan to sell US$8.29 billion worth of coal-fired equipment to India's Reliance ADA Group will boost orders on hand by 28%; revenue by US$500-600 million per year (6-7% its FY09 revenue). Notes hedging has been done to mitigate yuan appreciation risk. Says new energy division remains on growth drive; expects revenue of this division would surge to CNY13.8 billion in FY11 from CNY7.9 billion in FY10, underpinned by more nuclear equipment sales. Keeps stock at Buy.
Shanghai Elec Tipped L/T Winner
Dongfang Electric (1072.HK) +3.5% at HK$41.90 on top of 7.4% rally yesterday, which came on analysts-beating 3Q results; intraday high of HK$41.90 marks fresh 52-week high. Daiwa raises Dongfang's 6-month target price to HK$44.40 from HK$38.50, keeps Buy call; says strong 3Q results "driven by strong gross-profit-margin expansion," revises up FY10-12 EPS forecasts by 6.4%-8.2% to incorporate 3Q earnings surprise. Still, despite positive view on stock intact, Daiwa believes peer Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) "may be a long-term winner" in nuclear business, given its strong positioning in AP1000 (a third-generation technology), while Dongfang has been focused mainly on CPR (a 2.5-generation technology). Shanghai Electric +3.8% at HK$5.42.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
SH ELECTRIC 2727.HK
CLSA raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.60 vs HK$4.50 after lifting stock price multiple to 16X 2012 earnings based on likelihood of earnings upside, improved earnings visibility. Says new orders reinforce house preference for company over Dongfang Electric (1072.HK). "We expect that the valuation gap with Dongfang Electric will narrow, and it remains our top pick among the equipment suppliers." says CLSA. Adds, Shanghai Electric currently trading on 13.4X FY12 P/E vs Dongfang Electric's 20X FY12 suppliers. Keeps stock at Buy. Shares last +3.8% at HK$4.89, but off early high of HK$5.06, after announcing US$8.3 billion order with India's Reliance ADA Group
Thursday, October 28, 2010
SiHuan Pharmaceutical Holdings.
四环医药控股
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings
业务简介
四环医药控股是一家领先的医药公司，就市场份额而言，心脑血管药物业务居中国之首。集团拥有别具一格的销售及市场推广模式，由逾2,000名分销商组成的庞大的全国性分销网络提供支持，该网络覆盖全国31个省市及自治区近10,000家医院。
集团的研发实力雄厚，侧重於发展创新及首次进入市场的仿制药，并拥有物色、获得及开发市场领先药物的往绩记录。集团供应14种心脑血管药物组合，用作治疗多种心脑血管疾病，销量最高的为心脑血管药物克林澳、安捷利及川青，合共约占中国脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场的17.1%，脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场是最大的心脑血管药物细分市场。
集团亦与心脑血管药物一起推广及销售30种抗感染药物及其他药物的多样化组合。集团现时推广及销售的所有药物均为处方药。
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings
业务简介
四环医药控股是一家领先的医药公司，就市场份额而言，心脑血管药物业务居中国之首。集团拥有别具一格的销售及市场推广模式，由逾2,000名分销商组成的庞大的全国性分销网络提供支持，该网络覆盖全国31个省市及自治区近10,000家医院。
集团的研发实力雄厚，侧重於发展创新及首次进入市场的仿制药，并拥有物色、获得及开发市场领先药物的往绩记录。集团供应14种心脑血管药物组合，用作治疗多种心脑血管疾病，销量最高的为心脑血管药物克林澳、安捷利及川青，合共约占中国脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场的17.1%，脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场是最大的心脑血管药物细分市场。
集团亦与心脑血管药物一起推广及销售30种抗感染药物及其他药物的多样化组合。集团现时推广及销售的所有药物均为处方药。
Thursday, October 14, 2010
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
CHINAVTM MINING 00893 14/10/2010
Action Buy
Target Price $4.100
Reason
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
Event: A good timing to accumulate CVTM.
CVTM's share price has corrected 33% year-to-date and is still slightly below its IPO price of $3.50 in October 2009 amid the downturn of downstream steel industry starting in 2Q10. Given the company’s high earnings visibility, low production cost and strong earnings growth, we believe the stock is undervalued. Current level provides investors a good entry opportunity, in our view.
As the second largest iron ore producer in Sichuan area and the only major listed PRC iron ore player in Hong Kong, CVTM is the a beneficiary of the 'Great Western Development Plan' and robust demand from steel mills in Sichuan. Post-earthquake reconstruction and urbanization in Sichuan have been the driving force of steel demand in the region. According to company guidance, there will be approximately 10.1mnt of new crude steel production capacity in Sichuan area by 2012, up 66% from 2009 level. This in turn will drive demand of iron ore and support iron ore price in the area as it is costly to transport iron ore from coastal areas to inland.
Company recorded a 41% and 75% yoy growth in revenue and net profit to RMB 686mn and RMB 234mn respectively in 1H10. Gross margin expanded largely from 43.1% in 1H09 to 52.4% in 1H10 thanks to 1) increase in ASP which outpaced the surge of average unit cost and 2) increase in sales volume of iron concentrates and pellets by 9% and 13% respectively.
Iron concentrates output was up 16% yoy in 1H10 to 866kt, which only accounted for around 44% of company's full year target. This was mainly due to the drought in Sichuan which has interrupted the water and power supplies earlier this year. As company has commenced iron concentrates production in two new processing facilities in 1H10, it is highly likely that company can achieve its full year target of 1.95mnt of iron concentrates.
Realized ASP of iron concentrate and pellets in 1H10 were RMB 665/t and RMB 880/t, up 29% and 21% yoy respectively and were 9% and 1% above the floor contract price they signed with their customers. Even though domestic iron ore price may face short-term pressure amid the recent steel production cut to meet provinces' energy reduction target, we believe earnings risk of CVTM remains low as it has already signed sales agreement with its major customers for 2010 with floor contract price.
Meanwhile, company has continued to expand its capacity through acquisition of two processing plants and two iron ore mining rights in the area. While the iron ore mines it acquired are still at exploration stages, the two processing plants it acquired have lifted its production capacity of iron concentrates from 1.2mnt to 2.3mnt in 1H10. With another iron concentrate production line being completed by September 2010, its iron concentrates capacity can reach 2.6mnt by year-end. It is also constructing a new pellet production line that will lift its pellet production capacity from current level of 360kt to 1,360kt by 2H11.
Assuming that CVTM will sell its products at contract floor price in 2H10 and achieving its full-year production target, we estimate that company will earn RMB 501mn (EPS RMB 0.24) in 2010. Meanwhile, assuming that 1) ASP of iron concentrates and iron pellets up 9% and 3% respectively; 2) production capacity up by 23% and 3) production cost increases by 3% in 2011, we estimate it will record a net profit of RMB 685mn (EPS RMB 0.33) in 2011, implying a EPS CAGR of 28% between 2009 and 2011.
CVTM is trading at 12.3x 2010 PER and 8.9x 2011 PER that we think is undervalued given its high earnings momentum, strong organic growth and potential acquisition pipeline.
We rate it a BUY with a 6-month target price of $4.10, implying an 11x 2011 PER. Key downside risks are production disruption due to natural disasters or dispute with its mining contractor and lower than expected steel demand in Sichuan region.
Action Buy
Target Price $4.100
Reason
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
Event: A good timing to accumulate CVTM.
CVTM's share price has corrected 33% year-to-date and is still slightly below its IPO price of $3.50 in October 2009 amid the downturn of downstream steel industry starting in 2Q10. Given the company’s high earnings visibility, low production cost and strong earnings growth, we believe the stock is undervalued. Current level provides investors a good entry opportunity, in our view.
As the second largest iron ore producer in Sichuan area and the only major listed PRC iron ore player in Hong Kong, CVTM is the a beneficiary of the 'Great Western Development Plan' and robust demand from steel mills in Sichuan. Post-earthquake reconstruction and urbanization in Sichuan have been the driving force of steel demand in the region. According to company guidance, there will be approximately 10.1mnt of new crude steel production capacity in Sichuan area by 2012, up 66% from 2009 level. This in turn will drive demand of iron ore and support iron ore price in the area as it is costly to transport iron ore from coastal areas to inland.
Company recorded a 41% and 75% yoy growth in revenue and net profit to RMB 686mn and RMB 234mn respectively in 1H10. Gross margin expanded largely from 43.1% in 1H09 to 52.4% in 1H10 thanks to 1) increase in ASP which outpaced the surge of average unit cost and 2) increase in sales volume of iron concentrates and pellets by 9% and 13% respectively.
Iron concentrates output was up 16% yoy in 1H10 to 866kt, which only accounted for around 44% of company's full year target. This was mainly due to the drought in Sichuan which has interrupted the water and power supplies earlier this year. As company has commenced iron concentrates production in two new processing facilities in 1H10, it is highly likely that company can achieve its full year target of 1.95mnt of iron concentrates.
Realized ASP of iron concentrate and pellets in 1H10 were RMB 665/t and RMB 880/t, up 29% and 21% yoy respectively and were 9% and 1% above the floor contract price they signed with their customers. Even though domestic iron ore price may face short-term pressure amid the recent steel production cut to meet provinces' energy reduction target, we believe earnings risk of CVTM remains low as it has already signed sales agreement with its major customers for 2010 with floor contract price.
Meanwhile, company has continued to expand its capacity through acquisition of two processing plants and two iron ore mining rights in the area. While the iron ore mines it acquired are still at exploration stages, the two processing plants it acquired have lifted its production capacity of iron concentrates from 1.2mnt to 2.3mnt in 1H10. With another iron concentrate production line being completed by September 2010, its iron concentrates capacity can reach 2.6mnt by year-end. It is also constructing a new pellet production line that will lift its pellet production capacity from current level of 360kt to 1,360kt by 2H11.
Assuming that CVTM will sell its products at contract floor price in 2H10 and achieving its full-year production target, we estimate that company will earn RMB 501mn (EPS RMB 0.24) in 2010. Meanwhile, assuming that 1) ASP of iron concentrates and iron pellets up 9% and 3% respectively; 2) production capacity up by 23% and 3) production cost increases by 3% in 2011, we estimate it will record a net profit of RMB 685mn (EPS RMB 0.33) in 2011, implying a EPS CAGR of 28% between 2009 and 2011.
CVTM is trading at 12.3x 2010 PER and 8.9x 2011 PER that we think is undervalued given its high earnings momentum, strong organic growth and potential acquisition pipeline.
We rate it a BUY with a 6-month target price of $4.10, implying an 11x 2011 PER. Key downside risks are production disruption due to natural disasters or dispute with its mining contractor and lower than expected steel demand in Sichuan region.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
HK ENERGY 987.HK BUY TP HKD1.80
Don't miss this. Buy now at HKD0.63.
Business Summary:
The Group is principally engaged in alternative energy business and software development business.
Business Review:
During 2009, HKE made several important moves to transform the Group into HKC Group’s alternative energy flagship. Fully aware of the strong support given by the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”, or “China”) government on alternative energy, in particular wind and solar power, HKE refined the business strategy and disposed of the cellulosic ethanol pilot project in May 2009. Resources and focus were redirected to wind energy project development.
The equity for the Lunaobao wind farm project was fully injected and construction was well underway. The 100.5 megawatt (“MW”) wind farm is located in Lunaobao, Hebei Province, adjacent to Danjinghe, where another promising wind farm of the Group was being developed. HKE owns 30% of the joint venture with the rest of the stake held by the wind division subsidiary of China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (collectively “CECIC”). The project comprises 67 sets of 1,500 kilowatt (“KW”) PRC domestic manufactured wind turbines and the total investment cost is around RMB950.78 million. At as 31st December 2009, all 67 foundations had been completed and a total of 24 sets wind turbine and towers had been installed. Other peripheral and logistical infrastructure, such as the central control room, staff quarter and substation were completed. Work on power transmission and connection to the grid was in progress. Remaining wind turbines installation and peripheral construction are expected to be completed for trial run in mid 2010, well ahead of schedule and under budget.
A new Executive Director and Managing Director, Dr. Bruce Yung, who has worked in the energy industry for more than 20 years, joined HKE in August 2009. His joining has strengthened the Group’s ability to source new, high return wind farms and improved HKE’s awareness to the investor community. The Group’s technical wind resources evaluation and micro-site setting capabilities were further enhanced through the signing of a framework agreement with Garrad Hassan Limited (“Garrad Hassan”), a highly reputable wind power engineering consulting firm from the United Kingdom. The firm has considerable experience in the PRC.
During the second half of 2009, the Group signed memorandum of understanding (“MOU”) with and received letter of support from several provincial governments, such as Kulun in Inner Mongolia and Kangping in Liaoning Province, to commence wind resource and feasibility studies for developing wind farms. This will help increase the size of the Group’s wind farm projects pipeline.
HKE entered into an agreement in November 2009 to acquire from its parent company, HKC, 25% of HKE (Danjinghe) Wind Power Limited, which holds 40% equity interest in the project company developing the Danjinghe wind farm, for a consideration of approximately HK$83.06 million. The consideration represented a 25% discount to the fair value of the wind farm given by an independent business appraiser and a 36% premium to the net asset value of this asset accounted for under HKC. The transaction was completed by unanimous shareholders’ approval in the extraordinary general meeting held on 30th December 2009. After the transaction, HKE holds 10% effective equity interest in the project company holding the Danjinghe wind farm project while the remaining 30% and 60% rights are held by HKC and CECIC respectively.
The Danjinghe project is located approximately 300 kilometres (“km”) north of Beijing adjacent to Lunaobao in the Hebei Province with total 200 MW wind power generating capacity. The project is part of the 1,000MW national-scale wind power project designated by National Development & Reform Commission (“NDRC”) as a showcase for China. The wind farm was developed in three phases where phase 1 consisted 54 units of 750 KW wind turbine, phase 2 consisted 100 units of 800 KW wind turbine, and phase 3 consisted 53 units of 1,500 KW wind turbines all manufactured by PRC domestic supplier.
Phase 1 construction of the Danghinghe project was completed for trial run in January 2009 and commenced commissioning in June 2009. Phase 2 and 3 construction was also completed in December 2009, ahead of schedule by 12 months. Both phases are currently waiting for trial run. The project was completed under budget, with the Phase 1 operating performance in 2009 exceeded the original forecast of 75 million kilowatt-hour (“Kwh”) by 10 million Kwh. The injection of this promising wind asset from the parent company represents a significant move for the Group to become HKC’s alternative energy flagship.
Prospects:
China’s rapid economic development following the stabilization of the world’s economy creates a strong demand for energy. Alternative energy has been seen by the Chinese government as the most promising source of energy in addition to fossil fuels. Considerable attention has been given to the alternative energy sector and favourable policies have been rolled out in the past. This situation is expected to remain the same in the foreseeable future as alternative energy was highly promoted in the PRC Twelfth Five Years Plan for 2011 to 2015. Reflecting the government’s commitment to alternative energy, a number of amendments to China’s Renewable Energy Law were proposed in the eleventh National People’s Congress (“NPC”) in PRC held on 26th December 2009. These amendments were designed to resolve the problems with grid connection for wind power projects.
On the supply side, there is an indication of abundant wind equipment suppliers. Although consolidation is expected to come shortly, prices for wind equipment have come down, and are expected to continue to decline. As a result, development costs to HKE will also decline and should result in higher return on equity.
Internally, HKE will take advantage of the current favourable business environment and proceed with developing our wind farm projects in a cautious and careful manner. Further to signing the MOU and strategic development agreement with the provincial government, the Group will engage Garrad Hassan to conduct wind resources analysis, feasibility and micro-site study for Kulun of Inner Mongolia and Kangping of Liaoning. Kulun is southeast of Inner Mongolia approximately 77 km northwest of Fuxin city in Liaoning Province. The location is capable of accommodating three 49.5 MW wind farms. Kangping is approximately 120 km north of Shenyang city in Liaoning Province with an area over 300 square km. This location can develop into a 250 MW wind farm. Both locations are close to the transmission infrastructure and areas of power demand, which will be ideal for establishing wind farm. Apart from Kulun and Kangping, the Group is also exploring other potential wind farm locations in the south-western part of PRC.
The Group will also actively seek strategic partnerships with the aim to strengthen HKE’s capital base and to enhance the Group’s competitive advantages for future growth. In addition, HKE will explore plans and their feasibilities to further inject other alternative energy assets from the HKC Group. This will complete the transformation of HKE into HKC’s alternative energy flagship. Several alternative energy assets currently belong to HKC Group that can be considered are listed below:
(a) Phase I Siziwang Qi of Inner Mongolia – a 49.5 MW wind farm. This first phase of a potential 1,000 MW project is 100% wholly owned by HKC Group. The wind farm is currently under construction. Construction work for the foundations, control room and substation was completed. All 33 wind turbine units were hoisted in 2009 ready for the final connection to the grid and trial run in early 2010.
(b) Mudanjiang and Muling of Heilongjiang – a 2 x 30 MW wind farm. HKC Group owns majority stakes of 86% and 86.68% in the two wind farms. The wind farms commenced full operations in September 2007, and are making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.
(c) Danjinghe of Hebei – a 200 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% effective equity interest in which 10% held indirectly via HKE and 30% held directly by HKC Group. The first phase, consisting of 40.5 MW, commenced commissioning in June 2009. Cost saving was achieved. First commission data indicated that the performance in 2009 was better than originally forecasted. Construction for the remaining 2 phases was completed end of 2009 ahead of original schedule by 12 months. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.
(d) Changma of Gansu – a 201 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% interest. Construction was completed end of 2009. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.
(e) Linyi of Shandong – a 25 MW waste-to-energy power plant. The plant is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns 40% interest. The plant commenced full operations in September 2007, and is making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.
Business Summary:
The Group is principally engaged in alternative energy business and software development business.
Business Review:
During 2009, HKE made several important moves to transform the Group into HKC Group’s alternative energy flagship. Fully aware of the strong support given by the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”, or “China”) government on alternative energy, in particular wind and solar power, HKE refined the business strategy and disposed of the cellulosic ethanol pilot project in May 2009. Resources and focus were redirected to wind energy project development.
The equity for the Lunaobao wind farm project was fully injected and construction was well underway. The 100.5 megawatt (“MW”) wind farm is located in Lunaobao, Hebei Province, adjacent to Danjinghe, where another promising wind farm of the Group was being developed. HKE owns 30% of the joint venture with the rest of the stake held by the wind division subsidiary of China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (collectively “CECIC”). The project comprises 67 sets of 1,500 kilowatt (“KW”) PRC domestic manufactured wind turbines and the total investment cost is around RMB950.78 million. At as 31st December 2009, all 67 foundations had been completed and a total of 24 sets wind turbine and towers had been installed. Other peripheral and logistical infrastructure, such as the central control room, staff quarter and substation were completed. Work on power transmission and connection to the grid was in progress. Remaining wind turbines installation and peripheral construction are expected to be completed for trial run in mid 2010, well ahead of schedule and under budget.
A new Executive Director and Managing Director, Dr. Bruce Yung, who has worked in the energy industry for more than 20 years, joined HKE in August 2009. His joining has strengthened the Group’s ability to source new, high return wind farms and improved HKE’s awareness to the investor community. The Group’s technical wind resources evaluation and micro-site setting capabilities were further enhanced through the signing of a framework agreement with Garrad Hassan Limited (“Garrad Hassan”), a highly reputable wind power engineering consulting firm from the United Kingdom. The firm has considerable experience in the PRC.
During the second half of 2009, the Group signed memorandum of understanding (“MOU”) with and received letter of support from several provincial governments, such as Kulun in Inner Mongolia and Kangping in Liaoning Province, to commence wind resource and feasibility studies for developing wind farms. This will help increase the size of the Group’s wind farm projects pipeline.
HKE entered into an agreement in November 2009 to acquire from its parent company, HKC, 25% of HKE (Danjinghe) Wind Power Limited, which holds 40% equity interest in the project company developing the Danjinghe wind farm, for a consideration of approximately HK$83.06 million. The consideration represented a 25% discount to the fair value of the wind farm given by an independent business appraiser and a 36% premium to the net asset value of this asset accounted for under HKC. The transaction was completed by unanimous shareholders’ approval in the extraordinary general meeting held on 30th December 2009. After the transaction, HKE holds 10% effective equity interest in the project company holding the Danjinghe wind farm project while the remaining 30% and 60% rights are held by HKC and CECIC respectively.
The Danjinghe project is located approximately 300 kilometres (“km”) north of Beijing adjacent to Lunaobao in the Hebei Province with total 200 MW wind power generating capacity. The project is part of the 1,000MW national-scale wind power project designated by National Development & Reform Commission (“NDRC”) as a showcase for China. The wind farm was developed in three phases where phase 1 consisted 54 units of 750 KW wind turbine, phase 2 consisted 100 units of 800 KW wind turbine, and phase 3 consisted 53 units of 1,500 KW wind turbines all manufactured by PRC domestic supplier.
Phase 1 construction of the Danghinghe project was completed for trial run in January 2009 and commenced commissioning in June 2009. Phase 2 and 3 construction was also completed in December 2009, ahead of schedule by 12 months. Both phases are currently waiting for trial run. The project was completed under budget, with the Phase 1 operating performance in 2009 exceeded the original forecast of 75 million kilowatt-hour (“Kwh”) by 10 million Kwh. The injection of this promising wind asset from the parent company represents a significant move for the Group to become HKC’s alternative energy flagship.
Prospects:
China’s rapid economic development following the stabilization of the world’s economy creates a strong demand for energy. Alternative energy has been seen by the Chinese government as the most promising source of energy in addition to fossil fuels. Considerable attention has been given to the alternative energy sector and favourable policies have been rolled out in the past. This situation is expected to remain the same in the foreseeable future as alternative energy was highly promoted in the PRC Twelfth Five Years Plan for 2011 to 2015. Reflecting the government’s commitment to alternative energy, a number of amendments to China’s Renewable Energy Law were proposed in the eleventh National People’s Congress (“NPC”) in PRC held on 26th December 2009. These amendments were designed to resolve the problems with grid connection for wind power projects.
On the supply side, there is an indication of abundant wind equipment suppliers. Although consolidation is expected to come shortly, prices for wind equipment have come down, and are expected to continue to decline. As a result, development costs to HKE will also decline and should result in higher return on equity.
Internally, HKE will take advantage of the current favourable business environment and proceed with developing our wind farm projects in a cautious and careful manner. Further to signing the MOU and strategic development agreement with the provincial government, the Group will engage Garrad Hassan to conduct wind resources analysis, feasibility and micro-site study for Kulun of Inner Mongolia and Kangping of Liaoning. Kulun is southeast of Inner Mongolia approximately 77 km northwest of Fuxin city in Liaoning Province. The location is capable of accommodating three 49.5 MW wind farms. Kangping is approximately 120 km north of Shenyang city in Liaoning Province with an area over 300 square km. This location can develop into a 250 MW wind farm. Both locations are close to the transmission infrastructure and areas of power demand, which will be ideal for establishing wind farm. Apart from Kulun and Kangping, the Group is also exploring other potential wind farm locations in the south-western part of PRC.
The Group will also actively seek strategic partnerships with the aim to strengthen HKE’s capital base and to enhance the Group’s competitive advantages for future growth. In addition, HKE will explore plans and their feasibilities to further inject other alternative energy assets from the HKC Group. This will complete the transformation of HKE into HKC’s alternative energy flagship. Several alternative energy assets currently belong to HKC Group that can be considered are listed below:
(a) Phase I Siziwang Qi of Inner Mongolia – a 49.5 MW wind farm. This first phase of a potential 1,000 MW project is 100% wholly owned by HKC Group. The wind farm is currently under construction. Construction work for the foundations, control room and substation was completed. All 33 wind turbine units were hoisted in 2009 ready for the final connection to the grid and trial run in early 2010.
(b) Mudanjiang and Muling of Heilongjiang – a 2 x 30 MW wind farm. HKC Group owns majority stakes of 86% and 86.68% in the two wind farms. The wind farms commenced full operations in September 2007, and are making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.
(c) Danjinghe of Hebei – a 200 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% effective equity interest in which 10% held indirectly via HKE and 30% held directly by HKC Group. The first phase, consisting of 40.5 MW, commenced commissioning in June 2009. Cost saving was achieved. First commission data indicated that the performance in 2009 was better than originally forecasted. Construction for the remaining 2 phases was completed end of 2009 ahead of original schedule by 12 months. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.
(d) Changma of Gansu – a 201 MW wind farm. This wind farm is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns a 40% interest. Construction was completed end of 2009. Trial run and commissioning was targeted mid 2010.
(e) Linyi of Shandong – a 25 MW waste-to-energy power plant. The plant is a joint venture with CECIC. HKC Group owns 40% interest. The plant commenced full operations in September 2007, and is making steady revenue contributions to the HKC Group.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
AusNutria 1717.HK
澳優（1717）主要業務為在內地從事生產及銷售嬰兒奶粉產品，去年收益6.24 億元（人民幣，下同），按年上升54%，純利升1.58 倍至1.82 億元，毛利升1.1 倍至3.08 億元，毛利率增加13 個百分點至49%，主要是奶粉成本下降、銷售增速加快，以及較高毛利產品比重增加所帶動。
內地的「一孩政策」，令父母更願意花錢在嬰兒身上，產品質數最為重要，只要品質穩定，往往整個幼兒期都使用同一個牌子。自2008 年內地乳品業受三聚氰胺事件影響，令消費者更注重奶粉安全，海外產品較易取得信心。集團旗下三種不同系列產品，包括A 選系列、優選系列和能力多系列，所有產品透過澳洲供應商買入原料，主攻中高檔市場；而生產基地設於湖南省長沙市，擁有3 條生產線，專門負責殺菌、過濾和混合，每年產能超過1.5 萬噸。
集團計劃陸續推出產品，包括有機產品和新配方產品，提高產品多元化，增加市場佔有率。集團透個20 個省份的批發商銷售，再銷售至中國各地的百貨店、超級市場和母嬰專賣店等的零售店，又委託一個代理商設立獨立網站，提供網上購物服務，另外亦委任香港營銷商，進一步擴大營銷網絡。
內地的「一孩政策」，令父母更願意花錢在嬰兒身上，產品質數最為重要，只要品質穩定，往往整個幼兒期都使用同一個牌子。自2008 年內地乳品業受三聚氰胺事件影響，令消費者更注重奶粉安全，海外產品較易取得信心。集團旗下三種不同系列產品，包括A 選系列、優選系列和能力多系列，所有產品透過澳洲供應商買入原料，主攻中高檔市場；而生產基地設於湖南省長沙市，擁有3 條生產線，專門負責殺菌、過濾和混合，每年產能超過1.5 萬噸。
集團計劃陸續推出產品，包括有機產品和新配方產品，提高產品多元化，增加市場佔有率。集團透個20 個省份的批發商銷售，再銷售至中國各地的百貨店、超級市場和母嬰專賣店等的零售店，又委託一個代理商設立獨立網站，提供網上購物服務，另外亦委任香港營銷商，進一步擴大營銷網絡。
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
MengNiuDairy 2319.HK Rated BUY!
事件:蒙牛乳业公布2009年纯利爲11.2亿元人民币。
2009年营业额按年增长8%至257亿元人民币。公司纯利11.2亿元人民币，低於市场预期，本行相信是出於员工期权计划费用的摊销。每股盈利0.68元人民币，而2008年每股亏损0.67元人民币。公司建议发放末期息每股0.14元人民币，相当於股息派发比率爲22.0%。
毛利率从2008年的19.6%飙升至2009年的26.7%。虽然2009年八月份以来原奶价格反弹，然而2009年下半年毛利率仍维持在26.6%的高位(09年上半年为26.6%)。蒙牛主要竞争对手伊利的液态奶业务毛利率2009年下半年比上半年下降1.6个百分点。
原奶价格上涨对蒙牛乳业冲击较小是由於公司60%至70%的原奶来源於长达30至50年的长期独占性合约，原奶收购价格比较稳定。
另外，公司利用高质量原奶来源提升産品组合，从而改善毛利率。管理层指出2009年12月特伦苏産品销量创新高，这也爲AC Nielsen10月底资料显示特伦苏占中国高端牛奶市场77.5%的份额所佐证。
经营费用2009年下半年飙升。2009年下半年销售及经销费用按年增长27%，而上半年按年下降15%，出於年末赞助活动较多，推升了广告开支。行政开支2009年下半年猛增65%，而上半年按年只增长15%，本行认爲是出於员工期权费用的摊销。本行调增经营费用预期，但相信2009年下半年的增速不会持续。
管理层预计中国乳品市场未来两至三年将每年增长15%至20%，蒙牛管理层将依靠推出新産品及提升市场份额，致力使其增速超越同业水平。作为行业领导者，加上中粮集团及厚朴的战略合作，本行认爲蒙牛很有可能实现这个目标。
由於预料经营费用上升，本行将2010年每股盈利预测从1.01元人民币调低至0.91元人民币。然而，本行对蒙牛未来几年的前景依然乐观，2009年至2012年3年每股盈利年复合增长率预计将达26.8%。
蒙牛乳业现价相当於25.4倍2010年市盈率，估值并不昂贵。
重申买入评级，目标价下调至28.8元，基於28倍2010年市盈率
2009年营业额按年增长8%至257亿元人民币。公司纯利11.2亿元人民币，低於市场预期，本行相信是出於员工期权计划费用的摊销。每股盈利0.68元人民币，而2008年每股亏损0.67元人民币。公司建议发放末期息每股0.14元人民币，相当於股息派发比率爲22.0%。
毛利率从2008年的19.6%飙升至2009年的26.7%。虽然2009年八月份以来原奶价格反弹，然而2009年下半年毛利率仍维持在26.6%的高位(09年上半年为26.6%)。蒙牛主要竞争对手伊利的液态奶业务毛利率2009年下半年比上半年下降1.6个百分点。
原奶价格上涨对蒙牛乳业冲击较小是由於公司60%至70%的原奶来源於长达30至50年的长期独占性合约，原奶收购价格比较稳定。
另外，公司利用高质量原奶来源提升産品组合，从而改善毛利率。管理层指出2009年12月特伦苏産品销量创新高，这也爲AC Nielsen10月底资料显示特伦苏占中国高端牛奶市场77.5%的份额所佐证。
经营费用2009年下半年飙升。2009年下半年销售及经销费用按年增长27%，而上半年按年下降15%，出於年末赞助活动较多，推升了广告开支。行政开支2009年下半年猛增65%，而上半年按年只增长15%，本行认爲是出於员工期权费用的摊销。本行调增经营费用预期，但相信2009年下半年的增速不会持续。
管理层预计中国乳品市场未来两至三年将每年增长15%至20%，蒙牛管理层将依靠推出新産品及提升市场份额，致力使其增速超越同业水平。作为行业领导者，加上中粮集团及厚朴的战略合作，本行认爲蒙牛很有可能实现这个目标。
由於预料经营费用上升，本行将2010年每股盈利预测从1.01元人民币调低至0.91元人民币。然而，本行对蒙牛未来几年的前景依然乐观，2009年至2012年3年每股盈利年复合增长率预计将达26.8%。
蒙牛乳业现价相当於25.4倍2010年市盈率，估值并不昂贵。
重申买入评级，目标价下调至28.8元，基於28倍2010年市盈率
Monday, February 22, 2010
宝钢股份：价格提升 业绩增长
宝钢股份（600019）：公司是国内行业价格风向标的宝钢股份是我国钢铁行业龙头企业,公司目前年产能为2400万吨，公司以精品＋规模作为未来几年的发展战略，规模的扩大主要依靠兼并重组，其目标集聚产品结构优化战略，更加使得精品比重逐步提高。公司目前稳健重点发展是其独有及领先产品,其产量占比达到了40%，其中冷轧薄板产品比例达到了35％，后期仍会增长；目前冷轧产品国内市场占有率19％，冷轧汽车板国内市场占有率50％ 。
近期宝钢2010年2月价格政策出台：热轧、冷轧、镀锌和宽厚板等主力产品全部维持1月价格不变（包括供应最为紧张的汽车用钢）。最新价格政策低于市场预期。现货市场钢价不断提升，市场本来预期宝钢的热轧和冷轧产品会提高200元/吨和300-350元/吨。宝钢此次维持价格不变，一方面无疑考虑了央行提高准备金率对钢材市场的潜在冲击（本身处于高库存状态），流动性收紧预期加强影响，此前受资金充裕推动的钢价短期内会受到一定抑制；另一方面如此整齐划一的价格政策还是折射出谈判前的强大外部压力，上月宝钢首提钢材出厂价格引发了钢企涨价潮，在铁矿石谈判的敏感时点给公司带来了较大的舆论压力。但客观上，这有助于巩固和客户的关系，并缓解舆论压力，为下次调价争取空间。其次, 冬季本是钢铁需求的淡季，虽然宝钢以高端板材为主不受淡旺季影响，但结合整个钢铁市场的淡季氛围，待开春后旺季到来再涨价的做法也在情理之中。
宝钢的原料成本优势不断扩大。当下钢材市场中原料价格上升推动现货钢价上涨。以最新数据计算，长协钢坯成本低于现货钢坯成本约300元/吨。谈判落定之前，强预期推动的钢价上涨可能仍会继续，从而成为宝钢下次提价的动力。
2010年钢铁公司产品结构特点远比产能增长幅度重要。只要政府对经济结构转型的决心不变，后续公司高端冷轧产品的高盈利能力以及原料成本和出口优势的恢复将为股价带来上升空间。2010年产量增长一方面来自产能扩大：梅钢的铁前改造在2010年将贡献50-80万吨的新增产能，未来梅钢热轧产能可能将由目前的300万吨最高扩大至500万吨；另一方面来自于产能利用率的提升，按照公司三季度的产量进行年化，公司目前已经具备了2400万吨以上的能力，综合来看，公司2010年产量有望达到10%左右的增长。
二级市场上, 该股前期维持震荡走势,近日有所回调,但量能也随之萎缩,显示筹码锁定良好,后市一旦获得量能的配合,有望再度上攻.而且,该股目前估值优势明显,安全边际较高.因此,建议投资者重点关注。
近期宝钢2010年2月价格政策出台：热轧、冷轧、镀锌和宽厚板等主力产品全部维持1月价格不变（包括供应最为紧张的汽车用钢）。最新价格政策低于市场预期。现货市场钢价不断提升，市场本来预期宝钢的热轧和冷轧产品会提高200元/吨和300-350元/吨。宝钢此次维持价格不变，一方面无疑考虑了央行提高准备金率对钢材市场的潜在冲击（本身处于高库存状态），流动性收紧预期加强影响，此前受资金充裕推动的钢价短期内会受到一定抑制；另一方面如此整齐划一的价格政策还是折射出谈判前的强大外部压力，上月宝钢首提钢材出厂价格引发了钢企涨价潮，在铁矿石谈判的敏感时点给公司带来了较大的舆论压力。但客观上，这有助于巩固和客户的关系，并缓解舆论压力，为下次调价争取空间。其次, 冬季本是钢铁需求的淡季，虽然宝钢以高端板材为主不受淡旺季影响，但结合整个钢铁市场的淡季氛围，待开春后旺季到来再涨价的做法也在情理之中。
宝钢的原料成本优势不断扩大。当下钢材市场中原料价格上升推动现货钢价上涨。以最新数据计算，长协钢坯成本低于现货钢坯成本约300元/吨。谈判落定之前，强预期推动的钢价上涨可能仍会继续，从而成为宝钢下次提价的动力。
2010年钢铁公司产品结构特点远比产能增长幅度重要。只要政府对经济结构转型的决心不变，后续公司高端冷轧产品的高盈利能力以及原料成本和出口优势的恢复将为股价带来上升空间。2010年产量增长一方面来自产能扩大：梅钢的铁前改造在2010年将贡献50-80万吨的新增产能，未来梅钢热轧产能可能将由目前的300万吨最高扩大至500万吨；另一方面来自于产能利用率的提升，按照公司三季度的产量进行年化，公司目前已经具备了2400万吨以上的能力，综合来看，公司2010年产量有望达到10%左右的增长。
二级市场上, 该股前期维持震荡走势,近日有所回调,但量能也随之萎缩,显示筹码锁定良好,后市一旦获得量能的配合,有望再度上攻.而且,该股目前估值优势明显,安全边际较高.因此,建议投资者重点关注。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)