Disaster reveals opportunities..

A strongger China in times to come after a series of disasters........

WILMAR,SIME to Golden AGRI

UPDATE 3-Wilmar profit soars; sees prices staying firm
(Adds CEO comments) By Ovais Subhani SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) -

Wilmar International, the world's largest listed palm oil firm, said on Tuesday it expected to continue to profit from soaring commodity prices after posting a seven-fold jump in first-quarter earnings.

Wilmar shares rose more than 2 percent to an 11-week high, and analysts said they were surprised by the sharp rise in profits in a quarter that usually sees a lull in the palm oil business.
"Profit margins were significantly ahead of our expectations.

We expect subsequent quarters to improve on seasonally higher production volume and higher crude palm oil selling prices," said Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Tiah.
Tiah said he was unlikely to change his buy rating or S$5 target price for Wilmar, given the risk on downstream refining margins that could be volatile from quarter to quarter.

UBS analyst Gaurang Bhatia said Wilmar's pretax profit margin of $27 per tonne for the quarter, compared to a year-ago $15, was unsustainable as more refining capacity was likely to be added in the industry.

Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong said palm oil prices could be supported as record crude oil prices were fuelling U.S.
and European demand for biodiesel, which can be made from palm oil.
"Palm oil prices are expected to remain firm in the forseeable future," he told a briefing, adding that if crude oil prices topped $130 a barrel that would mean crude palm oil would fetch over $900 a tonne.

"If the U.S. continues to support biofuel and European governments go for biodiesel then palm oil would remain at high prices. The current prices are not cheap." Malaysia's benchmark contract for palm oil futures was quoted at 3,551 ringgit ($1,106) per tonne on Tuesday, down 21 percent since a record 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.

Wilmar is the world's biggest palm oil refiner but is cushioned from soaring feedstock costs because of its huge plantation acreage.
Kuok also said the firm, which had a capital expenditure plan of $800 million to $1 billion at the start of the year, would continue to look for acquisition targets and expansion in new markets such as Africa and central Asia.

FAVOURABLE OUTLOOK Wilmar, which owns oil palm plantations and runs milling, crushing, refining and processing plants in Indonesia and Malaysia, said January-March net profit rose to $343 million from a restated $49.7 million a year earlier.
Revenue rose to $7.1 billion from nearly $2 billion.

"While global economic growth in 2008 remains uncertain, led by concerns about a possible U.S. recession and credit tightening, the prospects for agricultural commodities continue to be favourable," the company said in a statement.

Wilmar has four biofuel plants in Indonesia and Malaysia, with combined annual production capacity of 1.05 million tonnes.

Wilmar is expected to post full-year 2008 net profit of $921.3 million, against $580.4 million in 2007, according to 14 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates before Tuesday's results.

Wilmar made its trading debut in Singapore in August 2006 following a reverse takeover of Ezyhealth Asia Pacific.
Last year, it completed the purchase of the palm plantation and edible oils businesses belonging to Malaysia's Kuok Group, a move which doubled its plantation landbank to about 570,000 hectares (1.4 million acres).
Headquartered in Singapore, Wilmar operates in 20 countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India and Europe.
Shares in Wilmar, valued at about $23 billion, have lost 6 percent since the start of the year, after more than doubling last year, while the Singapore stock market <.FTSTI> has fallen 8 percent.

Wilmar trades at about 26 times forecast earnings, compared with 11 times for local peer Golden Agri and 16 times for Sime Darby , the world's largest palmoil producer.

Asia telcos lure investors..

Investors look set to pump more money into Asian telecoms stocks, drawn by

1. the sector's high cash payouts and
2. stable earnings prospects, as they seek refuge from turmoil in financial markets, sky-high inflation and a slowing U.S. economy.
   

Compared with technology, banking and consumer stocks, Asian telecoms carriers are seen offering shelter from the subprime storm, ranking among the top five sectors in terms of yield, returns and earnings growth this year.

Favourite stocks include Taiwan's largest operator Chunghwa Telecom Co <2412.tw> and South Korea's second-ranked mobile firm KTF Corp <032390.ks>, which are relatively cheap, generate robust cashflows and offer dividend yields above 5 percent.

Investors are more wary of carriers in China, India and Indonesia. These firms offer stronger growth potential, thanks to their rapidly expanding subscriber bases, but escalating price competition and higher regulatory risks are a concern.

"When markets are volatile, sectors that have high yield and generate a lot of cashflow and have fairly certain earnings growth will be in favour, and the telco sector fits that pretty well -- telcos are the new utility stocks," said Michael Kerley, a London-based fund manager with Henderson Global Investors.

"I expect markets to stay volatile, and people tend to be more willing to pay for certainty when markets are volatile, so telcos will remain attractive," he said, adding that this situation could last another six months or longer.

Asia's telecoms sector is ranked a top performer in terms of dividend yield, earnings per share (EPS) growth and return on equity (ROE) ratios, in comparison with other sectors like finance, raw materials, property, healthcare and retail.

Return on equity measures how much profit a company generates with the money that shareholders have invested. A business with a high ROE is likely to be one that is able to generate cash internally.

According to recent data from J.P. Morgan Securities, the telecoms services sector has the highest forecast dividend yield of 2.8 percent this year, followed by the materials industry at 2.7 percent. The sector's forecast ROE stands at 14.1 percent, second after the energy industry's 16.6 percent.

Merrill Lynch ranks telecoms as the third-best performers in terms of EPS growth this year at 17.4 percent, after forecast 22.3 percent growth for the discretionary consumer segment and 36.8 percent for the non-semiconductor technology sector.

"We don't expect any slowdown in the Asian telecoms sector as domestic consumption is holding up well," said Credit Suisse analyst Colin McCallum.
"It remains to be seen whether high food -- in this case, rice -- prices has an impact, but we're not hearing operators talk about it as a major factor yet." CHEAP, CASH-RICH In terms of valuations, the telecoms sector appears more pricey relative to the technology, banking and raw material sectors, but the defensive nature of its cashflow and profits more than compensates for this, analysts said.

Merrill ranks Asian telecoms as the sixth cheapest -- at 18.7 times 2008 earnings -- out of 11 sectors, while Citigroup Global Markets ranks the industry 14th least expensive -- at 15.4 times 2008 earnings -- out of 24 sectors.

Top investor picks range from Taiwan's second-ranked carrier Far EasTone Telecom <4904.tw> and third-ranked Taiwan Mobile <3045.tw> to South Korea's top fixed-line operator KT Corp <030200.ks> and number three player LG Telecom Co <032640.ks>.

"Korea is the stand-out cheapest in the region -- you get pretty good yields, strong balance sheets, and attractive valuations, even on earnings which have been hard-hit by overly aggressive marketing campaigns," said Peter Wilmshurst, a Melbourne-based fund manager with Franklin Templeton Investments.

KT Corp ranks among the top five cheapest integrated telecoms operators in Asia Pacific -- at a 2008 PER of 12.5 times, out of a universe of 15 stocks, recent Credit Suisse data showed.
LG Telecom and KTF are also the cheapest and second-cheapest mobile operators in the region -- at 6.5 and 10 times 2008 earnings -- a ranking of 24 stocks from Credit Suisse showed.

Henderson's Kerley favours Far EasTone and Taiwan Mobile.
"They are cheap and hugely cash-generative. Although the market is fairly mature, the need for significant capital expenditure is muted, so these firms generate significant annual free cashflows and dividend yields are over 5 percent," he added.

In terms of 2008 forecast dividend yields, Chunghwa offers the third-highest rate of 6.4 percent, out of a ranking of 15 Asia-Pacific integrated telecom stocks by Credit Suisse.
Far EasTone is second in terms of offering the highest yield -- at 7.1 percent -- according to Credit Suisse's ranking of 24 Asia-Pacific mobile operator stocks.
The lowest forecast yields are from Japan's KDDI Corp <9433.t> at 1.6 percent, China Telecom Corp <0728.hk> at 1.7 percent, as well as India's Bharti Airtel Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd , both at zero percent, the data showed.

"Chunghwa is debt-free and we usually pay out all our reserves when we return additional cash to shareholders -- we don't retain excess cash, and we plan to continue to do this," said Chunghwa spokeswoman Shen Fu-fu.
"Our cash is for share buybacks, capital reduction or overseas expansion such as our recent $30 million joint venture with Vietnam's Viettel," she added.

Meanwhile, some analysts are less enthusiastic about China Telecom and China Netcom Group Corp <0906.hk>, the country's top two fixed-line operators.
"Benefits from industry restructuring have already been reflected in their stock prices and valuations are too stretched," said Cazenove analyst Lai Voon San.

Henderson's Kerley is also shying away from Chinese and Indonesian operators.

"The regulatory environment in China is very unclear, and we're not comfortable with that. We're also not keen on Indonesia -- competition is intense and lots of new players are entering the market -- we prefer to get exposure through SingTel." Singapore Telecommunications Ltd , Southeast Asia's largest phone company, has spent about S$18 billion in recent years buying stakes in mobile operators in high-growth Asian markets ranging from Pakistan to Thailand. It owns 35 percent of PT Telekomunikasi Selular , Indonesia's top mobile firm.
SingTel also owns a 30 percent stake in Bharti, which has seen its share price fall on concerns over the extent of debt financing that would be used to fund a potential acquisition of a majority stake in South Africa-based rival MTN Group .

Ten Years to come for Chian..

China still has a long road to travel before becoming an international financial hub, although it has made big strides in recent years, a report by Xinhua Far East China Ratings says. Among the obstacles facing China's financial system, the credit rating agency said, is a lack of balance -- it is much easier for large enterprises to raise capital than it is for small and medium-sized enterprises. The system is also hampered by an underdeveloped fixed-income market, a lack of institutional investors, weak disclosure rules and a lack of innovation. "For the sound development of the financial system, China has to look at the fundamentals," said Chung-Hsing Chen, vice president and head of ratings at Xinhua Finance, the parent of Xinhua Far East. "I think the regulators here have matured a lot in the past two decades but they still do not have sufficient exposure to the global environment as to what it takes to make the market work better," said Chen. The report said the government needs to gradually deregulate the markets. Integration of the regulatory bodies could help the process of oversight and deregulation of the markets, it said. "In order to promote fair competition in the market, the government should relax stringent approval requirements for traditional businesses and normal projects. Xinhua Far East endorses speeding up the development of multi-layered capital markets." At a minimum, it said, the government should strive to further diversify the ownership structure of state-owned enterprises, strengthen corporate governance, and encourage foreign private-sector companies to list in the A-share market. Developing the country's bond market in order to provide securities firms with more revenue should be a major focus of reform, Xinhua Far East said. Because of their heavy reliance on trading income, local securities houses are over-exposed to fluctuations in the stock market. Instead, they should diversify their activities and become financial holding companies, the report said. Given the current weak state of global markets and the amount of reform that needs to be undertaken, it could take a decade for China's capital markets to achieve international status. "In five years China's securities industry will be much more mature, but in ten years it could become a major financial hub for the region," Chen said.

次贷危机中，中国机遇何在?-意见领袖-《财经网》

次贷危机中，中国机遇何在?-意见领袖-《财经网》

黑岩CEO劳伦斯·芬克谈教训

【《财经网》专稿/特派记者 陈竹 发自美国华盛顿】黑岩（BlackRock）董事长兼首席执行官劳伦斯·芬克是华尔街上最近的红人，美联储没有竞标就直接选定黑岩作为贝尔斯登300亿美元问题资产的管理人。　　这家管理着逾1.35万亿美元资金，却一直低调行事的公司，因为被美联储选中接手贝尔斯登的300亿美元问题资产而被推到镁光灯下，芬克被称为Mr. Fix-it。　　4月23日，芬克在赴华盛顿与美联储主席伯南克探讨贝尔斯登问题资产的管理事宜间隙，接受了《财经》杂志的专访。　　强调风险管理　　对于美联储的这一决定，国会议员们在听证会上不依不饶地逼问伯南克：美联储为何不竞标就直接选定黑岩？又是否能够确保黑岩能把纳税人兜着的、作价300亿美元的贝尔斯登资产如数收回来？　　伯南克的回答是：“不能肯定，但这是一家经验丰富的专业公司。”　　芬克透露，黑岩已经接手了贝尔斯登的资产，美联储给的期限是十年。芬克说，在短期内清算这些资产不是不可能，但黑岩的目标是，不仅要收回资产，还要确保不会给其他公司造成压力、不损害资本市场。　　作为贝尔斯登问题资产的管理者，芬克分析了导致贝尔斯登轰然倒下的主要原因——信用危机和资本债务的错配。　　信用危机是因为人们对风险的认识不当。同很多其他华尔街公司一样，贝尔斯登受利润驱动，没有理解顾及到安全因素——他们依赖的不是风险管理部门，而是S&P和Moody’s这样的评级机构。最后，他们是拿到了AAA的评级，是避免了信用风险，但事实证明，这不过是一种假象。　　芬克认为，不少声名显赫的华尔街公司之所以会在这次危机中损失万亿，就是因为他们没有正确理解风险，不知道自己投资的产品到底是什么。此外，芬克指出，在很多华尔街公司，风险管理部被纳为贸易平台，缺乏独立性，无法适当地发挥风险评估的功能。　　“贝尔斯登的不幸还有更深层次的原因，”芬克说：“一些公司错以为资本很便宜，而且资本会永远便宜下去。一些公司因为资产与债务的错配——即大量的长期资产和大量的短期负债——而陷入流动性挣扎。贝尔斯登就犯了这样的错误。它垮掉的时候，手上其实捏着很多长期债务资产——它过于依赖Repo隔夜拆借市场市场了。倘若贝尔斯登能像雷曼兄弟那样，拥有一定的长期负债，就不至于挺不过难关。”　　在华尔街，一则有关黑岩的传统流传颇广：在周一的例会上，芬克要求从事债券买卖、房地产投资和私募基金等业务单元的负责人一一进行业务汇报。倘若某个负责人大谈业绩却忽略了风险分析，芬克就会重重地靠到沙发椅上，闭目养神，以沉默表示不满。　　在采访中，芬克笑着默认了这个传闻。他说，黑岩刚成立的时候，风险管理部工作的员工就占到员工总数的四分之一，而这个比例在其他公司只有5%到3%。　　“这在20年前是闻所未闻的。别人说，哦，你们公司是规避风险的。我说那是误解，风险管理并非风险规避。倘若你真正理解了风险，就不需要被动规避，而可以主动承担更多的风险，”芬克说。　　黑岩的风险管理部不仅为本公司服务，也为价值7万亿美元的客户资产提供风险分析。　　芬克说，很多公司之所以雇用黑岩做风险分析，是因为风险管理的建立并非一日之功。芬克说他常常警告客户，黑岩解决方案是可以帮你理解风险，但要在你的公司里建立起重视风险管理的文化，可能得花好几年的时间。　

中国机会　

　“在全球其他很多地区预计将遭受信贷危机更多影响之际，中国代表着一个投资机遇。” 芬克说。　　今年2月，黑岩与中行联手创建了中银基金管理有限公司（下称中银基金）。黑岩持有16.5%的股权。　　2006年底，黑岩就得到中国全国社会保障基金(NSSF)的授权，负责一小部分中国养老基金的海外投资。芬克承认，黑岩已与另外好几家国有退休基金管理项目签订了协议，但由于客户尚未公开消息，所以现在不方便透露细节。　　与世界上大多数主权财富基金皆有有合作的黑岩已向中国投资有限公司提出申请，要求管理中投公司即将发放的首批300亿美元投资授权的部分资金。　　芬克说：“我们靠的不是快速回报，而是稳定的，始终如一的发展。”　　同索罗斯一样，芬克也十分看好中国的股市。不同的是，索罗斯认为中国股市处于泡沫初启之时，而芬克认为，股市的大涨大跌引起人们对泡沫的担忧，但泡沫并不存在。　　“很多投资者可能初一试水就得到不少回报，人们兴奋地赚了一笔又一笔，却不清楚为什么自己能赚到钱，但那么高的市盈率肯定也没法长久。”芬克说，“随着股市投机逐渐缓和，股价回到基本面，后面迎来的是稳定发展期。市场信心亦会在这个过程中得以重建。”　　芬克认为，鉴于中国股市已从去年四季度触及的峰值水平下挫近三分之一，重新考虑投资个别中国公司的时机到了。“从市盈率、公司和所在国的基本情况看，在中国做长线投资是十分有利可图的。”芬克说：“所以，我常常和我遍布全球的客户讲，现在是‘增加风险’而不是‘规避风险’的时候。”■