宝钢股份（600019）：公司是国内行业价格风向标的宝钢股份是我国钢铁行业龙头企业,公司目前年产能为2400万吨，公司以精品＋规模作为未来几年的发展战略，规模的扩大主要依靠兼并重组，其目标集聚产品结构优化战略，更加使得精品比重逐步提高。公司目前稳健重点发展是其独有及领先产品,其产量占比达到了40%，其中冷轧薄板产品比例达到了35％，后期仍会增长；目前冷轧产品国内市场占有率19％，冷轧汽车板国内市场占有率50％ 。
近期宝钢2010年2月价格政策出台：热轧、冷轧、镀锌和宽厚板等主力产品全部维持1月价格不变（包括供应最为紧张的汽车用钢）。最新价格政策低于市场预期。现货市场钢价不断提升，市场本来预期宝钢的热轧和冷轧产品会提高200元/吨和300-350元/吨。宝钢此次维持价格不变，一方面无疑考虑了央行提高准备金率对钢材市场的潜在冲击（本身处于高库存状态），流动性收紧预期加强影响，此前受资金充裕推动的钢价短期内会受到一定抑制；另一方面如此整齐划一的价格政策还是折射出谈判前的强大外部压力，上月宝钢首提钢材出厂价格引发了钢企涨价潮，在铁矿石谈判的敏感时点给公司带来了较大的舆论压力。但客观上，这有助于巩固和客户的关系，并缓解舆论压力，为下次调价争取空间。其次, 冬季本是钢铁需求的淡季，虽然宝钢以高端板材为主不受淡旺季影响，但结合整个钢铁市场的淡季氛围，待开春后旺季到来再涨价的做法也在情理之中。
宝钢的原料成本优势不断扩大。当下钢材市场中原料价格上升推动现货钢价上涨。以最新数据计算，长协钢坯成本低于现货钢坯成本约300元/吨。谈判落定之前，强预期推动的钢价上涨可能仍会继续，从而成为宝钢下次提价的动力。
2010年钢铁公司产品结构特点远比产能增长幅度重要。只要政府对经济结构转型的决心不变，后续公司高端冷轧产品的高盈利能力以及原料成本和出口优势的恢复将为股价带来上升空间。2010年产量增长一方面来自产能扩大：梅钢的铁前改造在2010年将贡献50-80万吨的新增产能，未来梅钢热轧产能可能将由目前的300万吨最高扩大至500万吨；另一方面来自于产能利用率的提升，按照公司三季度的产量进行年化，公司目前已经具备了2400万吨以上的能力，综合来看，公司2010年产量有望达到10%左右的增长。
二级市场上, 该股前期维持震荡走势,近日有所回调,但量能也随之萎缩,显示筹码锁定良好,后市一旦获得量能的配合,有望再度上攻.而且,该股目前估值优势明显,安全边际较高.因此,建议投资者重点关注。
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
PIGS Problems????
P for Portugal
I for Italy
G for Greece
S for Spain
Next, what is next? Can it be more serious than SUB PRIME crisis? What have we learn from Asia Crisis in year 1997-1999?
No one crisis will prolong forever and remain unsolved!
没有走不完的路，也没有吃不完的苦!
I reiterate, this is an opportunity to buy when most of the investors are staying sideline and worrying for the sky to fall!
Strategy: Accumulate during FEB and March, market should regain confident and improve thereafter. Don't miss this golden opportunity!
If you still remain coutious and worried, my advice is you should be worrying about 2012! End of the .....
I for Italy
G for Greece
S for Spain
Next, what is next? Can it be more serious than SUB PRIME crisis? What have we learn from Asia Crisis in year 1997-1999?
No one crisis will prolong forever and remain unsolved!
没有走不完的路，也没有吃不完的苦!
I reiterate, this is an opportunity to buy when most of the investors are staying sideline and worrying for the sky to fall!
Strategy: Accumulate during FEB and March, market should regain confident and improve thereafter. Don't miss this golden opportunity!
If you still remain coutious and worried, my advice is you should be worrying about 2012! End of the .....
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Greens At Overweight; Targets HK$2.30
MS Starts Greens At Overweight; Targets HK$2.30
2009-12-11
STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts recent listing Greens Holdings (1318.HK) at Overweight with HK$2.30 target; notes Greens a major supplier of heat transfer products, solutions, global leader in extended surface economizers, with market share of 37.5% worldwide, 66% in China; it's "well positioned to benefit from growing environmental concerns globally." Stock trades at 11X/9X Morgan Stanley's forecast FY10/11 EPS, in line with two small Chinese power equipment component makers' average of 10X; given Greens' earnings growth expected much stronger, higher-than-peers profitability, "we believe it at least deserves a large premium to the two Chinese power equipment component makers."
2009-12-11
STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts recent listing Greens Holdings (1318.HK) at Overweight with HK$2.30 target; notes Greens a major supplier of heat transfer products, solutions, global leader in extended surface economizers, with market share of 37.5% worldwide, 66% in China; it's "well positioned to benefit from growing environmental concerns globally." Stock trades at 11X/9X Morgan Stanley's forecast FY10/11 EPS, in line with two small Chinese power equipment component makers' average of 10X; given Greens' earnings growth expected much stronger, higher-than-peers profitability, "we believe it at least deserves a large premium to the two Chinese power equipment component makers."
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