New listing: SHENHUA-C1, CNOOC-C1, CHALCO-C1

China ShenHua (1088) closed at HKD 30.75 ;
ShenHua-C1 is currently at 21.71% premium.
Price expectation: Not much upside, as it is already having a high premium. You can hope to sell at 12.5 cents, but do not put too high hopes.

CNOOC (0883) closed at HKD 9.09 ;
CNOOC-C1 is currently at 17.78% premium.
Price expectation: Since the Dow is looking good now, it could probably gain 1.5 cents (+15%).

CHALCO (2600) closed at HKD 16.67 ;
CHALCO-C1 is currently at 16.67% premium.
Price expectation: Same as CNOOC-C1, probably a 1.5 cents gain too (+15%).

DowJone Index supported at.....

First support will be around 13250, if this breaks, the next support level will be 12750, the strongest support will be at 12000 which no one would like to see it happens.

JP Morgan & CitiGroup both raised CCB's (0939.HK) target price to HKD6.80

Citigroup and JP Morgan both maintained “BUY” call on CCB and raised its target price by 13% to HKD6.80.

Hong Kong-listed China Construction Bank (CCB) is expected to post a first half to June net profit of 35.65 billion yuan, up 54 % from a year earlier, driven by a strong net-interest margin (NIM) and solid growth in customer loans, according to JP Morgan.

CCB's loans may have grown by nearly 10 % in the first half to June from the preceding six months and its non-performing loans declined to 3.01 % in the period.

Net profit forecast is raised from 2007-2009 by 2-14 % on higher net interest margin (NIM) of 2.85-2.92 % as a result of rising bond yields, up 50-100 basis points since March.

Citigroup estimated that for every increase in investment yields of 100 basis points for its short-term yuan-denominated bonds of 736 billion yuan, CCB's net interest and profit before tax will be raised by 11bps and 7 % for 2008.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan expects CCB's earnings per share (EPS) to grow more than 20 % in 2008 and 2009 partly through lower credit costs. It has forecast 2008 EPS at 0.37 yuan and 2009 at 0.45 yuan.

However, the stock is vulnerable to a correction in the near term as CCB's share price has risen by 29 % since it announced its planned A-share listing last month.
Nevertheless, a correction in the share price is a buying opportunity as strong earnings growth will continue to drive its share performance.

CCB closed at HKD5.85, down 4 cents.

CHINA MOBIL.......

China Mobile said its net new subscribers in June totaled 5.53 mln, taking its user-base at the end of first half of the year to 332.38 mln.

China Telecom announced that it added a net 210,000 subscribers in June, against 200,000 in May.

China Mobile subscribers is 12.8X the Malaysia's population!!
It's new subcribers takes onle 5.2 months to equate the Malaysia's population.

China Mobil shares is definitely a BUY! Another better alternative is to buy the ChinaMobil CAll Warrant (CHMobil-C1 or C3). For detail, pls refer to the previous posting.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited

Hong Kong Share Call Warrants list (updated: 13/7/07)

The table above shows HK share CWs sorted from the highest discount. The top 3 most discounted CWs are zero strike CWs for ChinaLife, HK Exchange and ChinaMobile.
At par level, CHLIFE-C2 would be trading around RM13.70, HKEX-C2 around RM58.75, and CHMOBIL-C2 around RM40.50.
The average premium for all the 20 CWs is 3.16%.

China's Banks rerating Upward.

Morgan Stanley has raised its price targets for Bank of China (BOC), Bank of Communications (BoComm), China Construction Bank (CCB), China Merchants Bank (CMB) and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), saying the lenders will benefit significantly from a tighter liquidity environment and robust equity market in the mainland. It noted that China's major banks have more liquid balance sheets and are therefore more exposed to improving bond yields. Tighter liquidity in the mainland's financial market has enabled major banking institutions to improve current bond yields to an average 2.88 pct against an average of 2.25 pct last year, Morgan Stanley noted. Average current interbank yields are at around 2.39 pct, up from an average 2.05 pct last year. Morgan Stanley said it has raised its target price on BOC to 5.09 hkd from 4.77, BoComm's to 9.57 from 8.67, CCB's to 6.6 hkd from 6.0, CMB's to 26. 84 from 20.29 and ICBC's to 5.20 hkd from 4.73.

China's Environmental Stocks..LT BUY!

【明報專訊】韓林素來在本欄大力推薦中國環保股，尤其是水務股，除了中國水務(0855)外，其餘如光大國際(0257)、天津創業環保(1065)、東江環保(8230)及天業節水(8280)皆是韓林力薦之選。過去一年多，上述各股翻了幾番的相當平常，鮮有失色者，新疆天業節水卻斯人獨憔悴。過去大半年來，股價升幅不多，雖曾突破3.4元，最近又是「七連陰」，打回原形。
母新疆最大農場主
從技術分析上看，走勢不是太好，以野村、高盛為主的賣盤相當猛，大有不插水心不息的決心。對於市場力沽行為，韓林甚為不解，天業節水的基本因素相當好，業績增長亦令人憧憬，大行的盤路甚為蹊蹺，光大國際及天津創業大升之前亦曾有此情，莫非又是「如欲取之，必先沽之」？
天業節水為國內最大的農業節水系統供應生產商，在新疆享有相當大名氣，技術方面承自以色列。事實上，中國用水中，七成用在農業上，作為水資源短缺的國家，中國如欲取得「水環保」的成功，節水是首要任務，而農業節水尤其重要。
天業節水的母公司是新疆建設兵團，為新疆這個佔中國國土面積五分之一的自治區的最大農場主。母公司農用地採用節水系統的只有15%，天業節水未來市場相當有保證，06年上市後，資金用於產能擴展，07年將全面反映。韓林預計07、08年盈利增長不少於50%，亦即08年市盈率接近8.5倍，比一眾環保股的25至30倍有天淵之別。
8月有望轉主板
天業的股權相當集中，大股東加上一眾大基金已持股約85%，流通股只有7800萬股左右，即約2億港元。如此低的流通比例，隨便買賣千多萬，股價就有8至10%的波動，不過這亦為大漲提供了良好的條件，天業節水8月有望轉主板，如果成功，又是一大利好。
韓林

Greater China Stockmarket Summary

Greater China stockmarket summary 2007-7-13

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - A summary of Greater China stockmarket trading Friday
HONG KONG Share prices closed sharply higher, with the main index hitting another milestone as it broke the 23,000 points level for the first time, helped by continued gains in heavyweight China Mobile. Wall Street's record performance overnight gave a strong boost to overall sentiment, also helping push several other blue chips higher. The Hang Seng Index closed up 290.27 points or 1.27 pct at 23,099.29.
CHINA A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed flat in sluggish trade with investors remaining cautious of a possible high reading for inflation when the indicator is announced on Wednesday, and the government's policy response to it. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A- and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed down 1.60 points or 0. 04 pct at 3,914.40. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 1.62 points or 0.04 pct at 4,106.21 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 1.83 points or 0.16 pct at 1,137.96. B-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed mixed, with Shanghai stocks slightly lower as investors took quick profits after a strong rebound yesterday. The Shanghai B-share Index was down 0.62 points at 279.29 and the Shenzhen B-share Index was up 6.25 points at 719.39.

TAIPEI
Share prices closed higher in active trade as investors in an already bullish market took further encouragement from Wall Street's record performance overnight. The local bourse continued to charge ahead as well amid expectations that the government will introduce further market-friendly measures in the run-up to the parliamentary and presidential elections early next year. However, some investors also opted to lock-in their profits. The weighted index closed up 116.89 points or 1.25 pct at 9,471.30.

China Life(2628.HK) TP HKD35.65

BROKER CALL China Life target price raised on strong investment yield.

Citigroup said it has raised the target price of China Life Insurance (HK 2628, SHA 601628) to 35.65 hkd from 30.50 while maintaining a ""buy"" call, citing improved investment yields and strong new-business growth for China's largest life insurer. ""We expect China Life's investment yield to further improve throughout the next 12 to 18 months, surpassing its long term investment yield assumption. With a strong cash balance, China Life investment yield should improve marginally faster than its peers,"" Citigroup analysts Bob Leung and Tracy Yu said in a research note. Citigroup also said China Life margins from new business will improve as it alters its product mix. ""Much of the new premiums sold in the first half 2007 have been longer-duration regular premium, which should continue to assist China Life in delivering a strong new-business margin,"" the investment bank noted. At 10:15 pm, China Life's shares in Hong Kong were up 0.7 hkd or 2.299 pct at 31.15 hkd.

Deutsche Bank:BUY on CCCC(1800.HK) TP17.80

Target already met! Be careful of the short term retracement of its shr price cause it has gone up too sharply! It took only 5 days to reach HKD17.78 after breaking HKD14.00. Handsome 27% returns within 5 days.


HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of China Communications Construction (CCCC) with a ""buy"" recommendation and a price target of 17.80 hkd, saying the stock will benefit from massive demand for infrastructure in China and the Asian region. ""Already a dominant player in China, its experience and cost advantage should enable it to break into overseas markets,"" it said. In a report to clients, Deutsche Bank said ""high operating leverage, cost-cutting and business shift should see margin expanding, resulting in another six years of structural growth at 27 pct compounded annual growth rate."" It said China will spend an estimated 5.3 trln yuan to build transportation infrastructure from 2006 to 2010, accounting for 75 pct of overall demand in Asia. ""Being the dominant contractor in China, China Communications stands to benefit. Its cost advantage will also enable it to achieve its target of growing overseas contracting backlog from 10 pct now to 25 pct,"" it added. It said the company's earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin has been rising consistently. Its 2006 margin stood at 8.2 pct, up from 7.2 pct in 2004. ""We project this trend to continue, reaching 9 pct by 2009,"" the investment bank said. At the close of the morning session, China Communications was up 0.40 hkd or 2.30 pct at 17.78.

Hutchison Call Warrant(HWL-C1) TP RM0.90

BROKER CALL - Merrill Lynch has raised its target price on Hutchison Whampoa Ltd to 98 hkd from 92 to reflect the company's strong financial position due to the improvement in the operations of its third-generation (3G) mobile phone services. The investment house said that the target price was also raised to show the strong share price performance of Hutchison unit Husky Energy. Merrill Lynch said it remains optimistic that Hutchison's 3G operations will achieve positive EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the first half of 2007. It said the market remains skeptical about Hutchison, despite its UK 3G business having turned a positive EBITDA in Jan-Feb 2007. The brokerage noted, however, that Hutchison 3G's accelerating data growth, improving churn and falling subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) could help support earnings in the second half. It also said it lifted its 2008 net asset value estimate for Hutchison by 4.0 hkd to 109 hkd per share to reflect the strong rise in the share price of Husky Energy. Merrill Lynch has retained its ""buy"" call on Hutchison Whampoa.

At today 3:30pm, Hutchison is at HKD86.2o +3.20. TP for the HWL-C1 will be
RM0.90 with potential upside of 43%. HWL-C1 is calling at RM0.535.

HKEx-C1, HWL-C1 and CCCC-C1 still a ........

HK market is UP again due to QDII effect. Blue Chips like HKEx and Hutchison Whampo, CCCC all performing well. Based on current prices of 132.40, 86.15 and 17.72,

if we apply 10% premium and the exchange rate at HK1=0.4448, the call warrants prices should be:

HKEx-C1, HWL-C1 and CCCC-C1 should be RM2.77, RM0.80 and RM0.56 respectively.

Happy Investing!

Hong Kong Share Call Warrants list (as at 6/7/2007 closing price)

Hong Kong Share Call Warrants list (as at 6/7/2007 closing price) sort according to premium/discount for your reference.

New listing: HWL-C1, ICBC-C3

Hutchison Whampoa CW (HWL-C1) is having a 4.26% premium, whilst Industrial and Commercial Bank of China CW(ICBC-C3) is having a 8.07% premium.
ICBC-C1 which was listed earlier, is currently trading at 10.16% premium. By applying the same premium of 10% to ICBC-C3, its price would be around 15.5 cents, a 15% gain in price.
HWL-C1 would be the more attractive one between the two. Hutchison Whampoa Limited (0013.HK) has surged a massive HKD4.95 (+6.342%) closing at HKD83.00 last Friday. Taking a 10% premium, HWL-C1 will be trading at about 60.5 cents. That's a whopping 53.94% gain in price!
Keep an eye on its underlying share (0013.HK) on the HK side, just in case it moves up again.

Watch out for PetroChina-C1 and C3......

PetroChina Co Ltd will hold a shareholders' meeting on August 22 or 23 to vote on the company's plan for an A-share listing, the official Securities Times reported. The newspaper said the Hong Kong and US listed company will select three lead underwriters, including two foreign institutions, to prepare for the listing. No further information was provided. PetroChina announced last month that it is seeking regulatory approval for an issue of up to 4 bln class A-shares in China.

So, don't miss out on PetroChina's Call Warrants listed in Bursa Malaysia which are PetroChina-C1 and C3. You got everything to gain by buying these C1 or C3 because the PetroChina(0857.HK) price will run up prior to the listing of A-shrs in China's ShangHai Exchange. Currently, PETROCH-C1 is trading at 6.61% premium, whilst PETROCH-C3 is trading at 6.82% premium. For details, pls refer to the previous posting.

QFII看淡A股的謬誤

北京科技大學教授趙曉

QFII看淡A股的謬誤
2007年05月28日
筆者在評論央行“組合拳”貨幣政策的文章中曾談到，政府其實還是給空頭面子的。然而，“5.19”的股市運行顯示，中國的多頭們並不想給QFII所代表的空頭們面子，而是毫不客氣地給了一點顏色看看。
這很有意思。多頭“市場”，顯然是以中國大陸“土?投資者”們為主，他們堅定地認為中國經濟和中國的企業都能值更高的價錢，而不象QFII那樣認為股價已經過高，泡沫已經過大了。
是土?們對呢還是外來的和尚們對呢？
筆者這裏暫時還不想談中國股市泡沫到底高不高。但基本可以肯定的是，QFII們對中國股市的判斷是錯誤的，遠遠比不上中國投資者對自家家底究竟值幾斤幾兩的判斷。原因也很簡單，不是QFII們不聰明，也不是缺乏知識，而是對中國的情況總不如中國人自己知根知底。我看到QFII們在認證中國股價過高時，引用過許多指標，然而他們卻沒有先論證一個基本的問題，這些指標的應用是否有問題，中國的情況和他們所舉的例證是否具有可比性。


事實上，中國的情況有許多特殊之處，幾乎很難簡單地套其他國家的經驗。試列舉四個方面：

1、成長性：中國的成長舉世無雙，是發達國家根本沒法比的。過去一段時間，中國的股指漲，企業的業績亦漲，市盈率反而下降，就是因為成長性帶來的奇特現象。事實上，中國經濟不僅過去增長奇快，今後還將快速增長。因為在許多方面，如城市化、工業化方面，中國迄今只走過了一半的路程，因此未來成長仍然預期良好。成長性成為中國股市的一大支撐。

2、非均衡性：中國有些市場改革和開放得比較早，發展得也比較充分，如製造業的一些行業就是這樣，有些可以說已經走到國際前列了。另外一些市場則不是這樣，其改革和發展都比較慢。而其中最晚的大概就是股市。事實上，2006年股市才真正從賭場脫胎換骨地變成了市場。由於與其他市場存在著發展的落差，因此股市的增長就蓄積了巨大的能量。在一定程度上甚至可以說，股市的發展落後於中國經濟20年。而20年的差距並非一兩年間就輕易能夠超越的。非均衡性成為中國資本市場將在相當一段時期持續保持高速發展的另一大支撐。

3、規模性：中國不是世界銀行錢納裏等“大國模型”中的4000萬人口的大國(big country)，而是擁有全球最多13億人口的巨國(great country)。這使得無論是臺灣經驗還是香港教訓，都無法簡單運用於中國。比如說，大部分的小的經濟體，其經濟在經歷20年的增長後，基本上能夠達到發達國家的水平，並且增長“見頂”，但中國經濟已經高速增長了26年，“頂部”仍然看不到，原因就在於中國國家太大，人口太多(迄今，僅農村剩餘勞動力的人數就達到歐盟的全部人數之和，人口紅利顯然仍將繼續一段時期)。

4、轉軌性：中國是一個轉型國家，這意味著這個國家在許多方面並不成熟。資本市場也是這樣。但轉軌國家成功的一個竅門就是，你不要以為市場可以在成熟之後再發展。不，永遠不要有這樣錯誤的思維。中國的經驗表面，中國就像一艘漏水的船，但你不可能停下來修好後再往前開，那樣船會沉沒的，你只能一邊開船，一邊修理，逐漸到達成功的彼岸。也就是說，基本的思維就是你只能在發展中改革，在改革中發展，別無他路。資本市場亦如此，你不能因為看到一些問題就一棍子打死或者用調控的名義搞死，那樣做就一定是比“非理性的市場”更大的非理性。中國是轉型國家這一特性甚至會給中國股市帶來一些令人啼笑皆非的影響，好比說由於中國是一個轉型國家，當前在中國從事生產活動仍然面臨著巨大的交易成本(許多是政府造成的)，這使得交易制度相對透明、簡單的股市成為投資者的首選，從而讓股市產生某種“制度性溢價”，可以在相對於成熟的市場經濟國家更高的市盈率基礎上持續運行。呵呵，制度不同，股市的“門票”價就不同，這難道不是一個非常簡單的道理嗎？熟知經濟學的QFII們為何從來不提這一點？

市場經濟的基本原理告訴我們，同質的東西才能比較，不同質的東西根本不能比較。由於前面所說中國股市的情況與西方國家，以及四小龍(他們相對中國來說都是太小的經濟體)等新興市場都有著許多明顯的差異。因此，簡單地用某些指標以及歷史的經驗於中國資本市場身上並因此得出簡單的結論其實是荒唐的，是QFII們的一個致命錯誤(不知他們是真的認識不清還是明知故犯)。
這也就是說，QFII們表面上似乎說得道道是道，實際上一開始就錯了，因為他們根本就不能證明中國可以與他們所列舉的例子來比較(彼此是否具有足夠的可比性)。

有一位哲人講得好，世界上最可怕的是謬誤，比謬誤更可怕的是包含真理的謬誤。近期QFII們對中國股市的集體看空評論大抵如此。

不過，市場是有效率的，並且市場永遠是對的。即便在言論的市場上也是如此。從這個角度，筆者預期QFII們主宰中國大陸資本市場發言權的時間不會太長。謂予不信，不妨回顧一下中國改革開放以來的一些事實。比如，一開始在家電領域，絕對是外資說了算，但後來中國家電企業越來越強，到現在海爾等中國家電企業可以說已經擁有與外來的和尚們同等甚至更重要的發言權了——中國本土異軍突起的國美、蘇寧等連鎖賣場甚至搶佔了更重要的發言權，抄了洋和尚們的後路。顯然，如今在家電領域，中國人不是更相信外資及其代言人，而是更相信中國人自己。外資總說打價格戰是錯的，可是中國企業就是靠打價格戰一步步取得了市場的發言權和主導權，究竟是誰對誰錯呢？政府究竟該聽誰的呢？難道政府要聽洋和尚們的，禁止中國的本土企業打價格戰嗎？好像沒有過。

在IT界，聯想等中國企業也經已搶回市場的發言權。中國人寧願更加相信聯想的市場感覺以及聯想的產品。外來的和尚們也喪失了主導性的發言權。
只有在資本市場領域，QFII們顯然才具有更加強大的發言權。這一點也足證中國在資本市場改革、開放和發展都還比較慢，這個領域在中國是相對更落後的領域，無論政府還是民間對中國本土投資者的眼光還缺乏自信，因此才更加關注QFII們的言論，更容易被他們一知半解的胡說八道模糊了眼睛。
然而，筆者在此大膽放言，也許短則3年5年，也許長則10年，“外來的和尚好念經”這個現象一定會改變。在資本市場這個領域，最優秀的價值發現者和價格制定者、領導者們一定是中國人自己。這倒不是因為中國人比洋和尚們更聰明，而是因為第一他們對自己的家相比外人有更多的資訊，從而更多的信心，更準確的價值判斷。第二是因為他們是自己的主人，許多人是在用自己的錢在玩錢，因此會更加謹慎負責任，但也更加積極大膽，而不象QFII們，更多其實是靠職業經理人來做事。而經理們總難免既放不開手腳，也不敢去拼命。
事實上，目前的資本市場已經分為成三股力量。私募和散戶猶如民營企業，其中私募可能做得最成功，公募則猶如國有企業，成績稍遜于“民營”，QFII是外資，反而是做得最差的。可悲的是，QFII們做得不好，他們不說自己做得不好，而說是市場的錯，他們一再看空進而一再踏空不認為自己的理性出了問題，而指責“市場非理性。呵呵，幸虧股指期貨沒有推出，否則在2000點就看空的朋友們恐怕褲子都賠沒了。
同樣可悲的是，一些善良卻缺乏頭腦的人們(包括部分政府官員)，居然還會相信QFII們所宣講的一套，並且受到其影響和壓力。只是假若時日，人們最終會發現，其實QFII們真的是對中國的情況不甚瞭解，他們對中國以及中國企業的價值判斷一再犯錯，實不足取。那個時候，QFII們就會像今天的家電行業、IT行業的洋和尚們那樣，逐漸地邊緣化。再也沒有人把他們的嘮叨當真的了，中國政府的政策也不會輕易受他們影響。
中國資本市場從2000多點跳水至1000點以下，那是QFII們哪怕是“歪理邪說”亦可強權奪天下的壟斷話語時代。而今天，中國政府的不溫不火的政策出牌，尤其是中國市場給QFII們的響亮耳光則說明，QFII們無論是政策的發言權還是市場的發言權已經今不如昔，再想通過喊空而揀便宜的事情很難再發生了。如果再假以時日，QFII們一定會更加沒落！
即便在眼下的多空爭辯中，筆者仍然相信中國政府會有足夠的反思、警省以及智慧，會警惕不要用粗魯的手段砸盤，轉而會採用合適的“組合拳(在大的方面，筆者歸納為四個方面，即需求管理、供給管理、規則管理以及結構管理)”進行梳理，讓中國的資本市場在改革中完善，在完善中發展，因為中國政府已經意識到金融也罷，資本市場也罷，相比於中國經濟發展的產業層面，實在是落後了太多，必須迎頭趕上，否則將影響中國崛起的大業，發展金融事實上已成為關係到中國國家經濟安全以及中國崛起的戰略任務，並且政府為此在前不久還剛剛頒佈了加快發展金融、證券業在內的服務業的條例。
顯然，發展才是硬道理。資本市場發展太快，股指增長太快可能有風險，但是資本市場發展太慢，配不上中國經濟，股價上升太慢，同樣有風險、有問題。治大國如烹小鮮。調控股市的成功標誌是讓其健康、持續發展，而不是亂棒打死(像上次那樣)。

New listing: MISC-CC, YTL-CD

MISC-CC has 15.38% premium, whereas YTL-CD has 17.82% premium. At current premium levels, both CWs are considered expensive and would probably trade in the range of zero to two cents gain in price tomorrow.

The table below compares the newly issued CWs with existing ones.

Since the new CWs have longer expiry period, we use a premium of 15% to compute the expected price for MISC-CC and YTL-CD, which are 8.1 cents and 11.9 cents respectively; both still below issue price. *sigh*

Potential upside for CCCC-C1

The table above shows the expected prices for CCCC-C1 based on potential prices of the underlying share. CCCC closed at HKD 15.80 today. Its CW closed at RM0.315 cents with a premium of 6.16%.
We give CCCC a minimum target price of HKD18.00 (in 6 months).

Based on the expected underlying share price, its CW will be trading above 42 cents at zero percent premium. If you bought the CW at 31.5 cents, that's another +33% gain !

HKEX-C1 (0505C1) hits our target! Look at CCCC-C1

HKEx-C1 hits as high as 2.12 this morning, surpassed our TP of RM2.08.

It is still a HOLD for those serious investors who buy the idea of extension of QDII programs.

HKEx is defenitely benefited from the increasing numbers of listed companies and also the increasing turnover in terms of volume and value in the HK Stocks Exchange.

I STRONGLY URGE YOU TO LOOK AT CCCC-C1. Please refer to the table below.

CCCC-C1 should be trading at least 36 sen applying 15% premium , mother share is trading at HKD15.06.

It is trading at only 5.7% premium compares to BOC-C1 and SINOPEC-C1 of 22% and 20% respectively.

400B Yuan IPOs on China's Stock Markets.

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - IPOs on China's stock markets are expected to total 400 bln yuan in 2007, doubling from a year earlier, the South China Morning Post reported, citing a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers. Chinese firms registered and listed on offshore bourses - or ""red chips"" - are being encouraged to return to domestic stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzen. (1 usd = 7.60 yuan)

New listing: SINOPEC-C1, BOC-C1, CCCC-C1

There will be three Hong Kong shares CWs to be listed tomorrow, which are SINOPEC-C1 (15.09% premium), BOC-C1 (18.80% premium), and CCCC-C1 (0.95% premium). Among the three, the spotlight would be on CCCC-C1. With a superbly low premium, it will definitely achieve the highest gain in price tomorrow. By setting a premium of 15%, CCCC-C1 should be trading near RM0.335 tomorrow. An impressive 123% gain in price!

Some information on CCCC:

China Communication Construction Corporation (CCCC) is principally engaged in the construction and design of transportation infrastructure dredging and port machinery manufacturing business. It is (i) the largest port construction and design company in China,

(ii) a leading company in road bridge construction and design, (iii) the largest dredging company in China and the third largest in the world. The Group is also the (iv) world's largest container crane manufacturer.

For those who intend to keep or purchase more CCCC-C1:
Let's just say, if the underlying stock climbs to HKD18.00 (a 20% gain) in a period of 6 months, we can expect its CW to be RM0.425 (without any premium). Any price below RM0.25 tomorrow should be a good bet to take.

HKEX-C1 (0505C1) is still VERY ATTRACTIVE!

Congratulation for those who read the blog on 27 June!
HKEx-C1 was at RM1.24
Now is trading at RM1.94! Is on track to reach the TP of RM2.08.

HKEx is trading at HKD 125.80 now (11.10am)

At current price, you are paying merely 1.90% premium to the mother price!! STill very attractive!!! HKEx is defenitely benefited from the QDII money flows, and more big China corporations queing for listing in HK Exchange. It can be seen by the increasing average daily volumes and the performance of the H shares!

HKEx TP is HKD130,Exercise Price =RM37=HKD83.15(Exchange Rate=HKD1=RM0.445)Ratio=10:1 Expiry date=13/1/2008

TP for HKEx-C1 =HKD(130-83.15)/10=HKD4.685=RM2.08 .

Hong Kong Closed at Record High, above 22,000

Hong Kong shares close at new record; index finishes above 22,000 UPDATE 2007-7-3 05:17:00 p.m. HKT, XFNA

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices hit a new record high, with the main index closing above the 22,000 points level for the first time, as investors took their lead from a strong showing on Wall Street overnight and firmer China markets. Buying interest was also spurred by several corporate announcements, including China Shenhua Energy's mainland listing plans and Chalco's acquisition of Baotou Aluminium. Fund inflows, attributed mainly to China's expanded qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) program, helped boost market activity The Hang Seng Index closed up 378.41 points or 1.74 pct at 22,151.14, off a low of 21,960.76 and just off a new all-time-high of 22,159.52. The index's previous closing high was 21,999.91, recorded on June 22 this year, while its previous all-time intra-day high was 22,085.59, reached on June 25. Turnover was 81.72 bln hkd. ""Overall investor sentiment was bullish and this enabled the market to close above 22,000 points for the first time today,"" said Alex Wong, asset management manager at Ample Capital. ""A combination of factors"" helped investors take a very bullish stance, he said, citing firmer overseas markets and positive corporate news flow. ""Several major corporate news, including Shenhua Energy's A-shares issue plan and a major acquisition by Chalco, were positive to the market,"" Wong said. ""Liquidity remains strong due in large measure to money from the mainland which is making (way) into the local market through QDII,"" he said, referring to China's program that allows overseas investment by some institutions. Wong noted that interest in China stocks was also boosted by easing of fears over liquidity in China's A-shares markets. Mainland officials have made some reassuring comments that a huge special government bond issue will have only a limited impact on liquidity. Other dealers noted that investors were also relieved that China did not announce any macroeconomic tightening measures over the holiday weekend. The Hong Kong market was closed yesterday for a public holiday following the July 1 anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China. Chalco led mainland firms higher, gaining 1.38 hkd or 10.47 pct to 14.56 after news that it will take over Shanghai-listed Baotou Aluminium Co in a cash or share swap deal. Chalco's A-shares in Shanghai ended up 3.73 pct at 23.94. China Shenhua surged 1.80 hkd or 6.59 pct to 29.10 after announcing plans to issue up to 1.8 bln shares for a listing in Shanghai. Among China financials, CCB gained 0.09 hkd or 1.67 pct at 5.47, Bank of China was up 0.051 hkd or 1.33 pct at 3.89, ICBC gained 0.011 hkd or 2.53 pct to 4.45 and China Life added 0.75 hkd or 2.67 pct at 28.85. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed up 405.27 points or 3.38 pct at 12,406.39. New listing KWG Property Holding ended at 7.84, up 7.69 pct from the IPO price of 7.28. It opened at 7.4 hkd and hit a high of 7.95. Among blue chips, HSBC gained 0.70 hkd or 0.49 pct at 143.20, China Mobile was up 2.85 hkd or 3.39 pct at 86.80 and HKEx rose 8.20 hkd or 7.42 pct to an all-time high of 118.70. Local property developers were mostly flat, with Cheung Kong steady at 102.40 hkd, Sun Hung Kai Properties up 0.40 hkd or 0.43 pct at 94.50, Henderson Land unchanged at 53.25 hkd and Sino Land flat at 16.28 hkd. In the banking sector, Hang Seng Bank was up 1.10 hkd or 1.04 pct at 106. 90, Bank of East Asia rose 0.45 hkd or 1.02 pct at 44.45 and BOC Hong Kong added 0.20 hkd or 1.07 pct at 18.82. Elsewhere, PetroChina gained 0.52 hkd or 4.51 pct at 12.04, China Unicom was up 0.52 hkd or 3.86 pct at 13.98 and Angang Steel rose 0.38 hkd or 2.36 pct at 16.46. (1 HKD = 0.445 RM)