SIHUAN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDINGS GROUP LTD. 集团网址： http://www.sihuanpharm.com
业务状况
集团简介：
－ 集团主要供应１４种药物，用於治疗心脑血管及中枢神经系统。其中「克林澳」、「安捷利」为唯一经国家药监局批准含特定活性成分的药物品牌，共占集团２００９年度及２０１０年６月止半年度总收入５７・３％及５７・７％。另亦销售仿制药及抗敏感药。
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团拥有２支共３３３人的研发团队，成功开发１３种产品，并取得１２种产品的全国分销权。集团在中国持有９９项专利，另有２３３项专利正在申请当中，在国外有４项。大部分产品已列入国家及省级医保药品目录及国家基本药物目录，并受政府的零售价格上限管制。集团正开发逾３０种产品，包括
四种已完成或正处於临床试验阶段，预期四年内推出，其中１０种为创新药，其馀为仿制药。
－ 至２０１０年１０月止，集团分销网络覆盖３１个省市及自治区近一万家医院，占所有三级医院７０％、二级医院５５％，以及５４００家一级及其他医院与医疗机构。
－ 集团产品的主要原材料为活性药物成分，最大供应商为Ｈａｒｂｉｎ Ｔｒｉ－Ｌｉｏｎ
Ｐｈａｒｍａｃｅｕｔｉｃａｌ（主要分包制造商）及北京高博。集团与北京高博於２００９年河北省成立廊坊四环，并持５１％权益，以生产ＡＰＩ及医药中介产品等原材料。
－ 集团拥有一间克林澳ＡＰＩ生产厂、一间锅炉房及一间接待办事处（总面积为２９３２平方米）、一个扩建设施及一间口服固体药包装厂，总面积为７８２平方米（未获建设规划许可证）。集团共经营六条综合生产线, 所有生产设施均获国家药监局的ＧＭＰ认证。
业绩表现：
－ 截至２０１０年６月３０日止半年度，集团营业额上升４６・９％至４・７３亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升１・１倍至２・５５亿元。期内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升４９・５％至３・４６亿元，毛利率由去年同期的７１・９％上升至７３・２％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升５４・２％至３・９３亿元，占总营业额８３％，毛利率由去年同期的
８１・８％下降至８０・６％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升１９・３％至７９７８万元，占总营业额１６・９％，毛利率由去年同期的３４・３％上升至３７％；
（四）於２０１０年６月３０日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・２亿元；流动比率为５・１倍；集团并无任何借款。
－ ２００９年度，集团营业额上升３９％至７・０９亿元（人民币；下同），股东应占溢利上升３７・７％至３・２６亿元。年内业务概况如下：
（一）毛利上升３７・３％至５・１７亿元，毛利率由去年的７３・８％下跌至７２・９％；
（二）心脑血管药物：营业额上升３９・７％至５・６１亿元，占总营业额７９・１％，毛利率由去年的
８４・５％下降至８１・４％；
（三）抗感染药物及其他药物：营业额上升３０・７％至１・４亿元，占总营业额１９・８％，毛利率由去年的３４・２％上升至４０・８％；
（四）於２００９年１２月３１日，集团之现金及现金等价物为６・１３亿元；流动比率为３・２倍；集团并无任何借款。
发展概览
－ 於２０１０年１０月，集团业务发展策略概述如下：
（一）继续巩固心脑血管药品业务，并扩大研发团队及重点发展注射用磺西林钠及奥卡西平片。另计划於四年内推出四种药物以补充现有产品组合；
（二）拟扩展销售团队至５００人，设立更多地区办事处，拟於五年内将三级、二级、一级及其他医院的覆盖率分别提高至９０％、８０％及７０％。；
（三）透过收购、合作及合营进行扩充，计划与境外药品公司成立合营公司；及
（四）拟将生产设施升级至符合新的ＧＭＰ标准及有选择性地符合欧盟或美国ＦＤＡ标准来加强生产质量；集团现有两个已规划的生产设施。其中河北省廊坊主要生产活性药物成分，预期将於２０１１年上半年投
产。另一於北京生产冻干粉针剂及小容量注射剂，预期将於２０１２年底投产。完成后总年产能将增加１亿瓶冻干粉针剂、１０００万瓶无菌粉针剂、３亿万瓶小容量注射剂及３０吨活性药物成分。
－ ２０１０年１０月，集团发售新股上市，估计集资净额为６３・３６亿港元，拟用作以下用途：
（一）约１２・６７亿港元（占２０％）用於开发及研究抗感染、新陈代谢、心血管系统、肿瘤及神经系统等目标治疗领域新产品；
（二）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於收购能补充及扩展集团现有产品组合的特定产品或生产线；
（三）约９・５亿港元（占１５％）用於建设位於廊坊及北京的两项新生产设施；
（四）约１９・０１亿港元（占３０％）用於并购适当的目标公司或业务；
（五）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用於加大销售及分销力度；及
（六）约６・３４亿港元（占１０％）用作营运资金及一般公司开支，特别是用於应付集团业务模式变动所产生的现金流量需求增加。
股本变化
－ ２０１０年１０月，以每股＄４・６，发行及配售１２・５亿股新股上市，另超额配售１・８７５亿股。
招股书预测
－ 「预期截至２０１０年１２月３１日止年度之股东应占溢利将不少於５亿元人民币，全面摊薄每股盈利不少於人民币１０分。」
－
Friday, November 5, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Shanghai Electric(2727.HK) L/T Winner.
STOCK CALL: Citigroup raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.50 from HK$4.00 on expectation of more profits from new energy business, overseas orders. Says company's plan to sell US$8.29 billion worth of coal-fired equipment to India's Reliance ADA Group will boost orders on hand by 28%; revenue by US$500-600 million per year (6-7% its FY09 revenue). Notes hedging has been done to mitigate yuan appreciation risk. Says new energy division remains on growth drive; expects revenue of this division would surge to CNY13.8 billion in FY11 from CNY7.9 billion in FY10, underpinned by more nuclear equipment sales. Keeps stock at Buy.
Shanghai Elec Tipped L/T Winner
Dongfang Electric (1072.HK) +3.5% at HK$41.90 on top of 7.4% rally yesterday, which came on analysts-beating 3Q results; intraday high of HK$41.90 marks fresh 52-week high. Daiwa raises Dongfang's 6-month target price to HK$44.40 from HK$38.50, keeps Buy call; says strong 3Q results "driven by strong gross-profit-margin expansion," revises up FY10-12 EPS forecasts by 6.4%-8.2% to incorporate 3Q earnings surprise. Still, despite positive view on stock intact, Daiwa believes peer Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) "may be a long-term winner" in nuclear business, given its strong positioning in AP1000 (a third-generation technology), while Dongfang has been focused mainly on CPR (a 2.5-generation technology). Shanghai Electric +3.8% at HK$5.42.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
SH ELECTRIC 2727.HK
CLSA raises Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) target price to HK$5.60 vs HK$4.50 after lifting stock price multiple to 16X 2012 earnings based on likelihood of earnings upside, improved earnings visibility. Says new orders reinforce house preference for company over Dongfang Electric (1072.HK). "We expect that the valuation gap with Dongfang Electric will narrow, and it remains our top pick among the equipment suppliers." says CLSA. Adds, Shanghai Electric currently trading on 13.4X FY12 P/E vs Dongfang Electric's 20X FY12 suppliers. Keeps stock at Buy. Shares last +3.8% at HK$4.89, but off early high of HK$5.06, after announcing US$8.3 billion order with India's Reliance ADA Group
Thursday, October 28, 2010
SiHuan Pharmaceutical Holdings.
四环医药控股
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings
业务简介
四环医药控股是一家领先的医药公司，就市场份额而言，心脑血管药物业务居中国之首。集团拥有别具一格的销售及市场推广模式，由逾2,000名分销商组成的庞大的全国性分销网络提供支持，该网络覆盖全国31个省市及自治区近10,000家医院。
集团的研发实力雄厚，侧重於发展创新及首次进入市场的仿制药，并拥有物色、获得及开发市场领先药物的往绩记录。集团供应14种心脑血管药物组合，用作治疗多种心脑血管疾病，销量最高的为心脑血管药物克林澳、安捷利及川青，合共约占中国脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场的17.1%，脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场是最大的心脑血管药物细分市场。
集团亦与心脑血管药物一起推广及销售30种抗感染药物及其他药物的多样化组合。集团现时推广及销售的所有药物均为处方药。
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings
业务简介
四环医药控股是一家领先的医药公司，就市场份额而言，心脑血管药物业务居中国之首。集团拥有别具一格的销售及市场推广模式，由逾2,000名分销商组成的庞大的全国性分销网络提供支持，该网络覆盖全国31个省市及自治区近10,000家医院。
集团的研发实力雄厚，侧重於发展创新及首次进入市场的仿制药，并拥有物色、获得及开发市场领先药物的往绩记录。集团供应14种心脑血管药物组合，用作治疗多种心脑血管疾病，销量最高的为心脑血管药物克林澳、安捷利及川青，合共约占中国脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场的17.1%，脑血管及周边血管扩张治疗市场是最大的心脑血管药物细分市场。
集团亦与心脑血管药物一起推广及销售30种抗感染药物及其他药物的多样化组合。集团现时推广及销售的所有药物均为处方药。
Thursday, October 14, 2010
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
CHINAVTM MINING 00893 14/10/2010
Action Buy
Target Price $4.100
Reason
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
Event: A good timing to accumulate CVTM.
CVTM's share price has corrected 33% year-to-date and is still slightly below its IPO price of $3.50 in October 2009 amid the downturn of downstream steel industry starting in 2Q10. Given the company’s high earnings visibility, low production cost and strong earnings growth, we believe the stock is undervalued. Current level provides investors a good entry opportunity, in our view.
As the second largest iron ore producer in Sichuan area and the only major listed PRC iron ore player in Hong Kong, CVTM is the a beneficiary of the 'Great Western Development Plan' and robust demand from steel mills in Sichuan. Post-earthquake reconstruction and urbanization in Sichuan have been the driving force of steel demand in the region. According to company guidance, there will be approximately 10.1mnt of new crude steel production capacity in Sichuan area by 2012, up 66% from 2009 level. This in turn will drive demand of iron ore and support iron ore price in the area as it is costly to transport iron ore from coastal areas to inland.
Company recorded a 41% and 75% yoy growth in revenue and net profit to RMB 686mn and RMB 234mn respectively in 1H10. Gross margin expanded largely from 43.1% in 1H09 to 52.4% in 1H10 thanks to 1) increase in ASP which outpaced the surge of average unit cost and 2) increase in sales volume of iron concentrates and pellets by 9% and 13% respectively.
Iron concentrates output was up 16% yoy in 1H10 to 866kt, which only accounted for around 44% of company's full year target. This was mainly due to the drought in Sichuan which has interrupted the water and power supplies earlier this year. As company has commenced iron concentrates production in two new processing facilities in 1H10, it is highly likely that company can achieve its full year target of 1.95mnt of iron concentrates.
Realized ASP of iron concentrate and pellets in 1H10 were RMB 665/t and RMB 880/t, up 29% and 21% yoy respectively and were 9% and 1% above the floor contract price they signed with their customers. Even though domestic iron ore price may face short-term pressure amid the recent steel production cut to meet provinces' energy reduction target, we believe earnings risk of CVTM remains low as it has already signed sales agreement with its major customers for 2010 with floor contract price.
Meanwhile, company has continued to expand its capacity through acquisition of two processing plants and two iron ore mining rights in the area. While the iron ore mines it acquired are still at exploration stages, the two processing plants it acquired have lifted its production capacity of iron concentrates from 1.2mnt to 2.3mnt in 1H10. With another iron concentrate production line being completed by September 2010, its iron concentrates capacity can reach 2.6mnt by year-end. It is also constructing a new pellet production line that will lift its pellet production capacity from current level of 360kt to 1,360kt by 2H11.
Assuming that CVTM will sell its products at contract floor price in 2H10 and achieving its full-year production target, we estimate that company will earn RMB 501mn (EPS RMB 0.24) in 2010. Meanwhile, assuming that 1) ASP of iron concentrates and iron pellets up 9% and 3% respectively; 2) production capacity up by 23% and 3) production cost increases by 3% in 2011, we estimate it will record a net profit of RMB 685mn (EPS RMB 0.33) in 2011, implying a EPS CAGR of 28% between 2009 and 2011.
CVTM is trading at 12.3x 2010 PER and 8.9x 2011 PER that we think is undervalued given its high earnings momentum, strong organic growth and potential acquisition pipeline.
We rate it a BUY with a 6-month target price of $4.10, implying an 11x 2011 PER. Key downside risks are production disruption due to natural disasters or dispute with its mining contractor and lower than expected steel demand in Sichuan region.
Action Buy
Target Price $4.100
Reason
CVTM (893, $3.43) 6M Target $4.10 BUY
Event: A good timing to accumulate CVTM.
CVTM's share price has corrected 33% year-to-date and is still slightly below its IPO price of $3.50 in October 2009 amid the downturn of downstream steel industry starting in 2Q10. Given the company’s high earnings visibility, low production cost and strong earnings growth, we believe the stock is undervalued. Current level provides investors a good entry opportunity, in our view.
As the second largest iron ore producer in Sichuan area and the only major listed PRC iron ore player in Hong Kong, CVTM is the a beneficiary of the 'Great Western Development Plan' and robust demand from steel mills in Sichuan. Post-earthquake reconstruction and urbanization in Sichuan have been the driving force of steel demand in the region. According to company guidance, there will be approximately 10.1mnt of new crude steel production capacity in Sichuan area by 2012, up 66% from 2009 level. This in turn will drive demand of iron ore and support iron ore price in the area as it is costly to transport iron ore from coastal areas to inland.
Company recorded a 41% and 75% yoy growth in revenue and net profit to RMB 686mn and RMB 234mn respectively in 1H10. Gross margin expanded largely from 43.1% in 1H09 to 52.4% in 1H10 thanks to 1) increase in ASP which outpaced the surge of average unit cost and 2) increase in sales volume of iron concentrates and pellets by 9% and 13% respectively.
Iron concentrates output was up 16% yoy in 1H10 to 866kt, which only accounted for around 44% of company's full year target. This was mainly due to the drought in Sichuan which has interrupted the water and power supplies earlier this year. As company has commenced iron concentrates production in two new processing facilities in 1H10, it is highly likely that company can achieve its full year target of 1.95mnt of iron concentrates.
Realized ASP of iron concentrate and pellets in 1H10 were RMB 665/t and RMB 880/t, up 29% and 21% yoy respectively and were 9% and 1% above the floor contract price they signed with their customers. Even though domestic iron ore price may face short-term pressure amid the recent steel production cut to meet provinces' energy reduction target, we believe earnings risk of CVTM remains low as it has already signed sales agreement with its major customers for 2010 with floor contract price.
Meanwhile, company has continued to expand its capacity through acquisition of two processing plants and two iron ore mining rights in the area. While the iron ore mines it acquired are still at exploration stages, the two processing plants it acquired have lifted its production capacity of iron concentrates from 1.2mnt to 2.3mnt in 1H10. With another iron concentrate production line being completed by September 2010, its iron concentrates capacity can reach 2.6mnt by year-end. It is also constructing a new pellet production line that will lift its pellet production capacity from current level of 360kt to 1,360kt by 2H11.
Assuming that CVTM will sell its products at contract floor price in 2H10 and achieving its full-year production target, we estimate that company will earn RMB 501mn (EPS RMB 0.24) in 2010. Meanwhile, assuming that 1) ASP of iron concentrates and iron pellets up 9% and 3% respectively; 2) production capacity up by 23% and 3) production cost increases by 3% in 2011, we estimate it will record a net profit of RMB 685mn (EPS RMB 0.33) in 2011, implying a EPS CAGR of 28% between 2009 and 2011.
CVTM is trading at 12.3x 2010 PER and 8.9x 2011 PER that we think is undervalued given its high earnings momentum, strong organic growth and potential acquisition pipeline.
We rate it a BUY with a 6-month target price of $4.10, implying an 11x 2011 PER. Key downside risks are production disruption due to natural disasters or dispute with its mining contractor and lower than expected steel demand in Sichuan region.
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