How Long Will Bull Market Last?

(Xinhua)Updated: 2007-05-28 14:45
Economists are divided about how long the Chinese mainland's bull stock market can continue to charge ahead, with some arguing that yuan-denominated A-shares are overvalued, the China Securities Journal reported on Monday.
In my opinion, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index could realistically hit 6,000 points in 2008", the report quoted Jin Yanshi, chief economist with Xiangcai Securities, as saying.
"The value of the A-share market would then be 24 trillion yuan (3.17 trillion U.S. dollars), equivalent to 96 percent of China's gross domestic product", Jin added.
Hua Sheng, president of Yanjing Overseas Chinese University, pooh-poohed Jin's prediction, saying the overheated market would not last long and that a 6,000-point index would require "a painful adjustment".
"Risks can be reduced if the government adopts a series of measures now to guide the stock market; otherwise the market will be unable to sustain the increasing risks," said Hua.
But the report quoted Jin as saying the biggest risk comes from government interference in the market.
Experience in the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan showed government interference would negatively impact the capital market, said Jin.
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist with China Galaxy Securities, also expressed concern about the rising market values of listed companies, which she believes have grown out beyond their real value.
"Excess liquidity is generally thought of as a serious macroeconomic problem, but in fact it provides an opportunity to promote the Chinese capital market", said Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Financial and Securities Institute, Renmin University of China.
"Bank deposits are flowing into the stock market at an unimaginable pace -- we are just on the threshold of a 10-year bull market", said optimist Han Zhiguo, director of Beijing Banghe Wealth Research Institute.